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Odds Heavily Favor Tua Tagovailoa Entering 2020 NFL Draft

SBD Staff Writer

by SBD Staff Writer in College Football

Jan 3, 2020 · 12:54 PM PST

Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Tua Tagovailoa
Will Tua return to Alabama next season? Photo by Andrew Bershaw/Icon Sportswire)
  • Alabama Crimson Tide Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa suffered a dislocated hip against Mississippi State in mid-November
  • Coming into this season, the junior was expected to be the number one overall pick in the 2020 NFL draft
  • With several Alabama juniors returning to school, there’s speculation Tagovailoa may join them even if the oddsmakers don’t think so

Tua Tagovailoa of the Alabama Crimson Tide was a near lock for the #1 overall pick in the NFL Draft before this season began, but after suffering a debilitating hip injury, he faces the possibility of sliding down the draft board and losing money.

As recently as October 18th, Tagovailoa was still the favorite to be drafted first overall. Even before the hip injury, there was significant concern about the junior’s ability to stay healthy – the Hawaiian has had surgical procedures on both ankles prior to his hip injury.

With him announcing his decision on Monday, the oddsmakers are bullish on Tua taking his talents to the next level.

Odds Tua Tagovailoa Enters 2020 NFL Draft

Outcome Odds
Yes -500
No +300

Odds taken January 3rd

Should He Go?

Even though Tagovailoa will probably be unable to work out for teams during the pre-draft process, he’s still forecasted as a first-round selection. Right after his hip injury, the quarterback was favored to be selected in the teens.

However, the NFL is a quarterback-driven league and with several teams in the top ten of the draft in need of a signal-caller, he might not fall as far as some forecast. In fact, both Todd McShay and Mel Kiper Jr. of ESPN have the Hawaiian as a top ten talent in the draft even with the hip injury.

Considering that the Cincinnati Bengals,  Miami Dolphins, Los Angeles Chargers, Carolina Panthers and Jacksonville Jaguars all are potentially in need of a QB, Tagovailoa may not wait long if he declares.

The one concern experts have regarding recovering from the hip injury is Tagovailoa’s quick twitch ability and how it might hamper his mobility.


Should He Stay?

Rumors have been swirling due to a multitude of factors including his faith and family as well as football fit that Tua will return to Tuscaloosa for next season.

There’s also the argument of unfinished business, as Tagovailoa has yet to win a national championship as a starting quarterback. He would be leaving college with his only title coming on this unforgettable play:

He’d be taking considerable risk returning to college to play another season on the chance he suffers another serious injury.

Generally speaking, I don’t like dart throw bets of this variety. Sure, there is some value at +300 on a shocking return to Alabama. Yet, I can only see an emotional argument for Tagovoila returning to college, not a logical one.

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