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Oklahoma’s Odds to Reach College Football Playoff Fall from +310 to +400 Despite Comeback at Baylor

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Oklahoma's odds to make the playoff have taken a fade, despite their comeback win over Baylor. Photo by John Silks (Wiki Commons) [CCLicense]
  • After a 34-31 comeback victory over Baylor, Oklahoma’s odds to make the College Football Playoff are now at +400
  • Those odds dropped to +400 from +310 a week ago
  • The Sooners have the same odds as #6 Oregon

Despite #9 Oklahoma’s 34-31 instant classic win following their furious second half comeback against the #14 Baylor Bears, the Sooners Four-Team Playoff odds dropped from +310 to +400.

Lincoln Riley’s Oklahoma team trailed 28-3 at one point, but Jalen Hurts’ late-game heroics apparently did nothing to improve the chances of a playoff spot for Boomer Sooner.

Odds to Make Four-Team Playoff

Team Odds to Make Four-Team Playoff Odds to Miss Four-Team Playoff
Alabama Crimson Tide +280 -340
Clemson Tigers -1000 +700
Georgia Bulldogs +175 -210
LSU Tigers -1250 +800
Ohio State Buckeyes -1000 +700
Oklahoma Sooners +400 -500
Oregon Ducks +400 -500
Utah Utes +290 -350

*Odds taken November 19th

The comeback victory over Baylor was a historic rally for the Sooners. Trailing by 25 points, it was the largest comeback win in program history. Hurts was tremendous in the game, going 30-of-42 for 297 yards and 4 touchdowns, with another 114 yards on the ground.

Playoff Positioning

A big part of the Sooners’ long odds to make the playoff field are the teams in front of them in the committee’s rankings. Oklahoma sits at 9th, with Penn State, Utah, Oregon, and Alabama between them and the fourth playoff spot.

The Sooners have a chance to impress the committee as the season wraps up, with TCU, #21 Oklahoma State, and the Big 12 Championship in a potential rematch with Baylor. They still, however, will need chaos in front of them to make the College Football Playoff.

Are OU’s Odds Right?

As far as the odds above go, Oklahoma and Oregon are, of the teams that still have a road into the playoff, the least likely to make the field. The Ducks have that distinction because oddsmakers believe Utah will win their matchup in the Pac-12 Championship Game. The Utes, meanwhile, have +290 odds to make the field.

The Sooners share that distinction of “least likely to make it” because, of the field, they’re ranked last.

 

Unfortunately for Lincoln Riley’s team, the Playoff committee has sent a very clear message that unless utter chaos befalls the last three weeks of the season, the Sooners will not get in. The Utah-Oregon winner will be favored. A 1-loss, non-conference champion Alabama will be favored. Should, somehow, Minnesota defeat Ohio State, the Gophers would likely jump Oklahoma.

Almost every scenario imaginable leaves the Sooners out. It’s the tough reality of the sport, but for Oklahoma, that one bad day in Manhattan is extremely likely to keep them out of the playoff.

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