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Still Undefeated SMU opens as 3-Point Underdog at Memphis in Week 10 Battle; Top Spot in AAC West at Stake

SMU Mustangs football
Undefeated SMU is a road underdog in Memphis in Week 10. Photo from @SMU_Football. (Twitter.)
  • 8-0 SMU clashes with 7-1 Memphis on Saturday Night (7:30 PM ET, Nov. 2)
  • Memphis opened as 3-point favorites, with heavier juice on their side
  • This is the only Week 10 matchup between two top-25 ranked teams

The AAC West lead will be on the line Saturday Night (7:30 PM ET, Nov. 2) when the 15th ranked SMU Mustangs (8-0) travel to Memphis to face the 24th ranked Tigers (7-1). Both teams are fresh off nail biting wins, especially Memphis, who barely survived a visit to Tulsa.

Our Mustangs vs Tigers odds show Memphis opened as 3-point favorites, and ESPN announced Saturday that their number one broadcast team will be in town to call the action.

SMU vs Memphis Odds

Team Spread
SMU Mustangs +3.0 (-105)
Memphis Tigers -3.0 (-115)

All odds taken 10/27/19.

The juice is already shaded towards the Memphis side which suggests either early money is coming in on the Tigers, or online sportsbooks expect them to be the more heavily bet side. On paper, this matchup appears to favor SMU, but Memphis has long history of dominating the Mustangs.

A One-Sided Rivalry

The Tigers are 8-3 all-time versus SMU, and most recently defeated them by 10 at home last season. They’ve beaten the Mustangs in five consecutive meetings and have outscored them 256-80 over that stretch.

Memphis’ average margin of victory has been 35.2 points and only once during their winning streak over SMU, did the Tigers fail to score at least 48 points. They’ll enter this game with high spirits after back-to-back wins, but this is the best Mustangs team since 1982, and they have a legit chance of going undefeated.

SMU is the More Talented Team

SMU grades out much higher than Memphis on both sides of the ball. They rank first or second in nearly every AAC offensive category and average more points, more passing yards and more rushing yards than the Tigers. Even on a night when they didn’t have their best stuff, they still put up 34 points to beat Houston on the road.

A big reason for their 8-0 start has been the play of quarterback Shane Buechele. He’s thrown for at least two touchdowns in seven straight games, and has led the SMU offense to an average of 44.3 points per contest. His adjusted completion percentage is a sparkling 74.3% and he’s already hit on 18 throws of 20 or more yards.

Memphis had fared well against the pass until Tulsa racked up over 300 yards against them, and if conference’s 10th ranked passing offense can find that kind of success, Buechele should have a field day.

Where Will the Line Move?

The fact that the juice is already shaded towards Memphis is surprising given that SMU is much better statistically.  Both teams have performed well against the spread, but the Tigers’ lone loss is against a Temple team the Mustangs beat by 24 points. This could very well be setting up as a scenario where the line is bet up past the key number 3, only to have a massive buy back in SMU’s direction.

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