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Point Spread in Texas vs Baylor Grows From Bears -4 to -6; Bears Have Covered in Three of Last Four Games

Texas vs Baylor
Texas travels to Waco this weekend to face the #14 Bears. Photo by Polupharmakos (Wiki Commons) [CCLicense]
  • Baylor is a six-point favorite against Texas in Waco
  • The Bears have covered three of their last four games
  • The total has gone under in three of Texas’ last five and two of Baylor’s last three

Two Big 12 teams coming off of heartbreaking losses will meet in an exciting Week 13 matchup. The Texas Longhorns (6-4) travel to Waco to face the #14 Baylor Bears (9-1) on Saturday, Nov. 23 (3:30 PM ET).

While both teams will be desperate to bounce back, the Texas vs Baylor odds show that one team is getting a lot more action from the betting public. After opening as four-point favorites, Baylor has been bet up to -6.

Texas Longhorns vs Baylor Bears Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Texas Longhorns +6 (-110) +180 O 59 (+100)
Baylor Bears -6 (-110) -210 U 59 (-120)

Odds taken November 21st

Both Texas and Baylor need to rebound for different reasons. For the Longhorns, a fifth loss this season only does more damage to a program whose momentum was so high early in the year.

The Bears need to bounce back because, with only a single loss and a shot at a Big 12 Championship, playoff hopes in Waco are still alive.

Lots of Line Movement

This is a game that is somewhat tough to nail down, and that has been reflected in a line that seen significant movement. It’s tough to nail down, mainly based on the ways that these teams lost last week.

Iowa State made a game-winning field goal to hand Texas its fourth loss. Baylor blew a 25-point lead to Jalen Hurts and Oklahoma.


Often after a loss, one can make the case for a team bouncing back and refocusing in the following week. In this situation, however, the losses were so much more demoralizing than the average defeat.

It’s a safe bet to say that both of these teams will come out flat, but whomever can get the ball rolling first will have the advantage on Saturday.

Bears or Longhorns?

The line remains under a touchdown, and against the spread, Baylor -6 is the way to go here. This may be a slow starting game, but when it comes to motivation, the Bears have it all. As mentioned prior, their hopes of reaching the College Football Playoff are still alive, with three more weekends of potential chaos between them and a spot in the four-team field.

Things in Austin are a bit less exciting. Texas is likely headed for 7-5, which doesn’t exactly scream, “Texas is back!”. They’ve covered the spread in only 1 of their last 4 games, and a few weeks ago defeated lowly Kansas by only 2 points.


Baylor gives up only 20.5 points per game, and recent trends suggest that this will be a defensive football game that benefits the Bears. The total points scored in Texas’ last 2 games were 44 (Iowa State) and 51 (Kansas State), and the total has gone under in 3 of the Longhorns last 5 games. 

The under is a smart move here as well, considering the total has also gone under in 2 of the Bears’ last 3 contests. However, when it comes to the way these teams match up, all signs point to Baylor having the edge on Saturday.

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