Upcoming Match-ups

Virginia vs Notre Dame Picks & Odds – Under Is 5-1 in Irish’s Last Six

Brady Trettenero

by Brady Trettenero in College Football

Sep 27, 2019 · 10:58 AM PDT

Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly
Brian Kelly will look to lead the Fighting Irish to victory when No. 10 Notre Dame hosts No. 18 Virginia in Week 5. Photo by Neon Tommy (Flickr) CC License.
  • No. 10 Notre Dame hosts No. 18 Virginia on Saturday (Sep. 28, 3:30 PM ET) as 12.5-point favorites
  • The Cavaliers are 4-0 on the season, while the Fighting Irish are 2-1
  • How should you bet on Notre Dame vs Virginia?

One of the marquee matchups of Week 5 sees No. 10 Notre Dame host No.18 Virginia on Saturday (Sep. 28, 3:30 PM ET).

The Fighting Irish looked impressive in Week 4, losing a close 23-17 game to No. 3 Georgia on the road. The Cavaliers, on the other hand, are 4-0, but thoroughly underwhelmed in a 28-17 win over Old Dominion last Saturday.

Both teams are sound defensively, and the under has hit in five of Notre Dame’s last six games. How should you bet on the UVA vs Notre Dame odds?

Virginia vs Notre Dame Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Virginia (#18) +12.5 (-110) +350 O 48.5 (-110)
Notre Dame (#10) -12.5 (-110) -500 U 48.5 (-110)

Notre Dame Keeps Pace with Georgia

The Fighting Irish are coming off a close 23-17 loss to Georgia in Week 4. Notre Dame had a 10-7 lead at halftime before losing the game in the second half.

Starting QB Ian Book had a solid night, going 29-of-47 for 275 yards with two interceptions. His fourth-quarter interception was costly, but he kept his team competitive all night.

Notre Dame has struggled against top-10 teams in recent years, but they proved in Week 4 just how good this year’s team is. The Fighting Irish were blown out by Alabama in the 2013 BCS championship game and Clemson in last year’s playoff semifinal. Going toe-to-toe with Georgia between the hedges is a promising sign.

That said, it was a very physical and emotionally draining game that should have an effect on the Irish in Week 5. Georgia has one of the best teams in the nation, and Notre Dame left it all on the field in a close loss. Taking Notre Dame -12.5 against an unbeaten Virginia team after the war in Athens isn’t the safest bet.

Virginia Enters Undefeated 

The Cavaliers (4-0) are off to their best start since opening 5-0 in 2004. They were 30-point favorites over Old Dominion in Week 4 but barely survived in a 28-17 victory.

UVA was down 10 points at halftime and only managed 66 yards of offense and 23 yards on the ground in the first half.

Virginia’s defense has been strong this season, and that unit saved the day last week. They came up with six sacks against Old Dominion and held the Monarchs to 64 rushing yards. The Cavaliers haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in six straight games and currently lead the nation with a whopping 20 sacks.

Virginia is yet to face a ranked opponent, but this defense is the real deal.

Virginia is yet to face a ranked opponent, but this defense is the real deal. Linebackers Charles Snowden and Zane Zandier had big games against Old Dominion, while Keion White also impressed with six tackles. The Cavaliers currently lead all ACC teams in tackles for loss.

Expect a Low-Scoring Battle

Notre Dame is an elite defensive team that limited an explosive Georgia offense to just 23 points and 152 yards on the ground in Week 4. Virginia’s defense ranks second in the ACC and 14th nationally in total yards allowed, at 263.8 yards per game.

Notre Dame’s offense was too one-dimensional last week, as they struggled to run the football against a solid Bulldogs defense. They managed just 46 rushing yards against the Georgia, including 18 by Book, and now have to face the 12th-best rush defense in the nation.

Book gives the Fighting Irish the edge in the air, but Virginia’s dual-threat QB Bryce Perkins is capable of making big plays and will be looking to bounce back after a rough outing in Week 4. I don’t see Virginia being able to create much offense against Notre Dame, but I also think they come hard at Book all game and prevent him from taking this one over.

Take the Under

With Notre Dame coming off a mentally taxing loss and Virginia limiting their first four opponents to just 72 points, the under is the best bet here.

Notre Dame has won 13 straight games at home, and while I do think they pull off the win here, I’m not confident in betting either team to cover the spread.

The under has hit in five of Notre Dame’s last six games, and that trend should continue this week.

Pick: Under 48.5 (-110)

Author Image