NFL Divisional Playoffs Betting Preview

Wild Card weekend lived up to the hype, with the Cowboys and Lions playing a game for the ages, and the Ravens, Panthers, and Colts all winning in impressive fashion.

Four more games are on tap for the Divisional Playoffs as the cream of the NFL crop get set to go tete-a-tete. The Patriots, Seahawks, Packers, and Broncos – who are all playing at home after having last weekend off – are favorites over the Ravens, Panthers, Cowboys, and Colts.

While the home teams should be full value for the wins, they are also laying a lot of points. What’s the play, betting-wise? Let’s take a quick look at each matchup.

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-8.5), Saturday at 4:35 p.m. Eastern

There’s a lot to be said about this matchup, but most people are focusing on the fact that the Ravens have trumped the Patriots twice in the playoffs at Gillette Stadium; yet, not many remember New England crushed the Ravens (41-7) in Baltimore during the regular season last year.

New England QB Tom Brady is downplaying the history between the teams, though.

“Everything’s different at this point,” QB Tom Brady said on WEEI. “We can never change anything that’s happened in the past, nor can they. You can’t bring players out of retirement; they can’t either. It’s the guys we’ve got vs. the guys they’ve got … that’s an entirely new team that we have and an entirely new team that they have.”

While Brady is right that both teams have seen a lot of turnover, some of the key players remain on both sides.

Baltimore QB Joe Flacco, who was under center for both of the team’s playoff wins in Foxborough, has emerged as Mr. Playoffs for the Ravens. Flacco has 13 touchdowns and no picks in his last five playoffs games.  In lieu of WR Anquan Boldin, RB Ray Rice, and TE Dennis Pitta, Flacco will be targeting Steve Smith, Justin Forsett, and Owen Daniels this weekend.

Baltimore is 3-4-2 ATS in its last nine games on the road against New England.

On the other side, New England still has Tom Terrific at the helm, and star TE Rob Gronkowski on the outside. When the Ravens trumped the Patriots in the 2012-13 AFC Championship Game, “Gronk” was sidelined with an arm injury. Gronkowski’s absence left Brady forcing his throws which, in turn, led to two interceptions.

As long as the 6’6″ tight end stays intact for the full 60 minutes, Brady should have an easier time finding open targets this time around.

I expect the Patriots’ offense to outplay the Ravens’ this time around and advance to the AFC Championship game; however, with Flacco at the helm, the Ravens should be able to keep it close, which means taking the Ravens and the points looks like the better play.

My pick: Ravens +8.5.

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-12.5), Saturday at 8:15 p.m. Eastern

Russell Wilson and Cam Newton have faced each other three times (all in Carolina), and the Seahawks have won all three.  Seattle’s defense has returned to its dominant form from last season; actually, they look even more dominant right now, if that’s possible. The team has allowed only 6.5 points per game over the last six.

Carolina is coming off a 27-16 home win over the Arizona Cardinals where they covered as six-point home favorites. The Panthers held the Cards’ offense to just 78 total yards, an NFL playoff record.  But the fact that they couldn’t muster more than 198 passing yards at home against one of the league’s worst pass-defenses is an indication of just how big a hurdle playing the Seahawks at Centurylink Field will be.

The Panthers were able to ride Jonathan Stewart and the running game against Arizona, but Seattle has the third-best rush-defense in the NFL and will be prepared to stack the box and force Newton to throw. If Newton isn’t more accurate in the passing game – he went just 18/32 last weekend – Carolina will have a hard time moving the ball and putting points on the board.

Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last seven games against Carolina. The problem here is that a 12.5-point spread is huge in the NFL, especially in the playoffs. Again, I expect the Seahawks to advance, but I’ll take the Panthers and the points.

My pick: Panthers +12.5.

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-7), Sunday at 1:05 p.m. Eastern

The game between Dallas and Green Bay is arguably the most interesting of the four Divisional matchups, as it pits the Cowboys’ perfect 8-0 road record against the Packers’ perfect 8-0 home record.

The Dallas offense travels well due to their ability to run the ball, and there is every reason to think it will be able to do the same come Sunday, as Green Bay has had trouble stopping the run all season.

Whether a big day on the ground will be enough to trump the Packers at Lambeau is another matter, though. The Packers’ offense has been unstoppable – in all facets of the game – at home, averaging over 40 points per game. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has played near-perfect football at Lambeau all season, posting no interceptions in the eight home games.

The major concern for Packer fans is that Rodgers is dealing with a calf injury, which left him noticeably limping during and after the team’s week 17 win over Detroit. Rodgers is certain to start and the latest information is that the injury is “progressing”; but, as we saw in the Detroit game, he could easily aggravate it during the game, which would turn this matchup on its head.

Dallas QB Tony Romo has done a lot to shed his “choker” reputation this year, going 4-0 in December and leading the Cowboys to a 24-20 comeback win over the Lions last weekend. Though the Cowboys failed to cover as seven-point favorites, Romo showed a ton of mental fortitude in coming from ten back at halftime.

After the win, Romo is now 2-3 in the playoffs. Dallas, as a team, is 1-4 ATS in its last five games road games against Green Bay.

As with New England and Seattle, I expect the Packers to come out on top, but they’re laying too many points (-7) to pick them ATS. DeMarco Murray and the Dallas run-game should be able to keep this game within one score.

My pick: Cowboys +7.

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-7), Sunday at 4:40 p.m. Eastern

The series between Andrew Luck and the man he replaced in Indy, Peyton Manning, is tied 1-1 with each QB holding serve at home.  These two teams already met once this season with the Broncos winning 31-24 at Mile High. But a lot has happened since then.

Both teams have high-scoring offenses; the Broncos finished the regular season second in the league in scoring, while the Colts were sixth. Manning threw 39 touchdowns on the year, second only to Luck, who led the league with 40.

The Colts crushed the A.J.-Green-less Bengals (26-10) during Wild Card weekend, easily covering the three-point spread. The win was the second of Luck’s playoff career.

“He’s a maestro back there,” Indy head Chuck Pagano said of his QB via the team’s website. “He’s unbelievable. He made great decisions today, and he made them all day long. It was a great game for him.”

Lucks’ continued improvement, coupled with Denver’s woeful ATS record against Indianapolis (1-4 ATS in the last five at home), means I’m taking Indy and the points (+7).

My Pick: Colts +7.

(Photo credit: Todd Shoemake (flickr) [https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/legalcode]. Photo has been cropped.)