NFL Playoffs Betting Preview – Wild Card Round

The 2014 NFL playoffs start this weekend with the four Wild Card games. In the NFC, the Cowboys will square off with the Lions and the Cardinals will meet the Panthers, while, in the AFC, the Ravens will tangle with the Steelers and the Colts will host the Bengals.

The prize for the victors? A road game against the rested Seahawks, Packers, Patriots, or Broncos next weekend.

Several teams will be missing key players for their playoff openers – due to both injuries and suspensions – and two franchises will be looking to break quarter-century long playoff droughts. Let’s take a look at the odds and storylines heading into each game.

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-5), Saturday (4:20 p.m. Eastern)

A lot of you will probably do a double-take when you look at that spread. The Arizona Cardinals won 11 games this year, while the Carolina Panthers couldn’t even get to .500. However, Carolina won four in a row to close the season and the Cardinals may be without quarterback Drew Stanton again, as the QB remains questionable with a knee injury.

Third-string QB Ryan Lindley played decently in Arizona’s 20-17 loss to the 49ers in week 17, going 23/39 for 316 yards and two touchdowns; but he struggled with turnovers, throwing three interceptions. He was dreadful filling in for Stanton during weeks 15 and 16, though, and the possibility of Lindley starting on Saturday has to have Cardinal fans worried.

That said, if Lindley can cut down on the picks, the Cardinals defense should keep them in the game. Arizona has a +8 turnover margin on the year, even after Lindley’s three giveaways last week, and features a ball-hawking secondary.

Carolina recorded an impressive 34-3 victory in Atlanta over the Falcons in week 17, taking the NFC South title and earning a playoff berth in the process. The Carolina defense has been solid during the team’s win-streak, keeping teams to 17 points or fewer in four straight.

Panthers QB Cam Newton will be making his second career playoff start after losing (23-10) in the divisional round against the San Francisco 49ers last season.  Newton was subpar in that game, going 16/25 for 267 yards, one TD, and two picks.

Trends: Arizona is just 3-7 SU in its last ten games against Carolina, but the Panthers are 2-4 ATS in their last six home games against the Cardinals.

Pick: The Panthers’ new-found confidence – coupled with Arizona’s inability to score – makes the Panthers (-5) the better play. But it may be prudent to wait until Stanton’s injury status becomes clearer before making any moves.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5), Saturday (8:15 p.m. Eastern)

This will be the third meeting of the season between these heated NFC North rivals. The teams split their two earlier meetings with the home team winning by double-digits on both occasions.

In years past, matchups between the Steelers and Ravens were hard-hitting, low-scoring battles; while Saturday’s game may still be hard-hitting, don’t expect a defensive struggle. The Steelers are second in the NFL in total offense and are averaging just over 29 points per game in their last six. The Ravens, meanwhile, averaged 25.6 points per game for the season, eighth-best in the league.

While neither team has a good secondary, look for both teams to try to establish the run early, setting up the play-action later in the game. In terms of the battle for the line of scrimmage, the Ravens will have a key weapon back this weekend; defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, who missed the last four games of the regular season due to a violation of the league’s drugs policy, will once again be clogging the running lanes for Baltimore come Saturday.

Ngata’s return bolsters a defense that had the second-most sacks on the season (behind only the Buffalo Bills).

For the Steelers, the biggest question mark heading into the game is the health of RB Le’Veon Bell. The former Michigan State Spartan suffered a knee injury in week 17 against the Cincinnati Bengals. The latest reports are that Bell didn’t suffer any structural damage, but remains a game-time decision and won’t be at 100% even if he suits up.

With Bell either out or at partial-capacity, there will be increased pressure on QB Ben Roethlisberger. “Big Beg” has been dynamite most of the year, leading the Steelers to just over 300 passing yards per game, second-best in the NFL. But the success of the passing game is due, in part, to opposing defenses focusing on stopping the run. If Bell can’t go, the Steelers could become one-dimensional and predictable.

Trends: Baltimore is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six against Pittsburgh. The Steelers are 12-4 SU in their last 16 at home against Baltimore.

Pick: Baltimore didn’t play well down the stretch, but with Ngata returning and Bell’s status in doubt, take the Ravens and the points (+3.5).

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5), Sunday 1:05 PM ET

The Bengals and Colts already met once this year, and Cincinnati played arguably its worst game of the season, getting shutout 27-0. Bengals QB Andy Dalton threw for just 126 yards and no touchdowns, while his counterpart, Andrew Luck, was electric, throwing for 344 yards, two touchdowns, and no picks.

The Bengals can take comfort in the fact that they were without star receiver A.J. Green in that game. However, they could be in the same situation this Sunday, as Green was diagnosed with a concussion following Cincinnati’s week 17 loss to the Steelers and remains in doubt for Sunday.

Whether Green can go or not will be key for a Bengals team that is 0-3 in the playoffs with Dalton at the helm.

Luck, on the other hand, already has one playoff win on his resume, an epic 45-44 comeback win over the Kansas City Chiefs in last year’s Wild Card round. He was also third in the NFL in passing this season and was named to his third straight Pro Bowl.

Trends: Indianapolis is 8-2 SU in its last ten games against Cincinnati (5-0 SU at home).  The Bengals, meanwhile, have not won a playoff game in 25 years.

Pick: Football is a team game and myriad factors contribute to winning or losing on any given week. That said, the Colts are at home and boast the number one passing offense in the league; the Bengals have Andy Dalton … Take the Colts and lay the points (-3.5).

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-7), Sunday 4:40 PM ET

The Dallas Cowboys are in the midst of a five-year playoff drought. While fans in the Lonestar State consider that unacceptable, the Lions faithful have had it much worse. Detroit’s current playoff drought is almost as long as Cincinnati’s, with its last postseason win coming 24 years ago.

If the Lions are going to bust their slump, they will have to do it the hard way: Detroit will be on the road on Sunday, where the team went just 4-4 on the season, and will be without star defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, who has been suspended one game for stomping on Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers in week 17.

The loss of Suh is especially problematic with the Cowboys next on the schedule. Dallas running back DeMarco Murray led the league in rushing this season by a wide margin, and figures to see a lot more daylight without the 6’4″, 305 pound Suh stuffing the holes in the line of scrimmage.

The x-factors in this game are, strangely, the two quarterbacks. Both Matthew Stafford and Tony Romo have reputations as players that can’t win the big games. Romo has done a lot to shed that reputation this season, playing lights-out down the stretch when a playoff berth was still very much in doubt. Stafford, on the other hand, played his worst football of the season in December, failing to surpass 250 yards in the final three games.

Trends: The Cowboys are 6-1 SU in their last seven games, and the Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last five on the road. Detroit is also just 3-6 ATS in its last nine games against Dallas.

Pick: With Suh out and Stafford trending downward, this one could get ugly. The Cowboys are laying eight points, which is by far the biggest spread of the weekend, but taking Dallas still looks like the better move.

(Photo credit: Au Kirk [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons. Photo has been cropped.)