2018 NFL Draft Odds: 1st-Overall Race between 4 QBs?

• The odds to go 1st overall in the 2018 NFL Draft are led by four quarterbacks.
• Should USC’s Sam Darnold still be the favorite?
• Is there any chance the Browns don’t pick a QB first overall?

The 2018 NFL Draft (Apr. 26-28) is just around the corner, and finally a sportsbook has released a line for the #1 overall pick.  Predictable that it’s filled with quarterbacks, but surprising that Sam Darnold is on top and “the Field” has semi-short odds.

Sam Darnold (QB, USC): +175

It’s hard to pin Sam Darnold down, because in his first year starting for USC, he was everything an NFL scout looks for, but in his second year, cracks started to appear. His completion percentage went down, he threw fewer TD’s and more interceptions, but most importantly, he lost some of the poise that had scouts drooling after his first year. He looked nervous, made dumb mistakes, and fell flat in a few games. Of course, he lost some of his best receivers to the NFL, but this time last year, we weren’t talking about what a great supporting cast Darnold had.

It’s surprising to see [Darnold] as the favorite, given how disappointing his 2017 season was …

Altogether, it’s surprising to see him as the favorite, given how disappointing his 2017 season was and how lost he looked at times. Put that together with the slight controversy surrounding his willingness to play in Cleveland, and the bevy of other quarterbacks available, and +175 starts to look a little crazy.

Consensus: Far too short odds. Even the way the sportsbook arranged them on the website suggests that Darnold wasn’t always the favorite, or won’t be for long.

Josh Rosen (QB, UCLA): +200

Josh Rosen was born to be a quarterback prospect, and has been a favorite for the #1 pick in this draft since he was in high school. He has every physical attribute you look for in an NFL pivot, and approaches the platonic ideal of the word “quarterback.”

His time at UCLA has been, if anything, testament to his ability to throw the ball. The Bruins have cycled through offensive staff too frequently to build any coherent program around him, but at the centre of all that chaos has always been Josh Rosen throwing the ball beautifully. His mechanics are pure enough that he gets great pace and spin on the ball even without solid footing, and his accuracy is consistent enough that he can make all the throws defensive coordinators like to dare young quarterbacks to make. He hasn’t always won — he certainly hasn’t won big — but at no point have Rosen’s bona fides as a passer been in question.

NFL scouts are wary about Rosen because he speaks his mind a little too often to fit in the sanitary mold of “franchise quarterback.”

NFL scouts are wary about Rosen because he speaks his mind a little too often to fit in the sanitary mold of “franchise quarterback.” This is mostly nonsense. Once you unpack even his most controversial quotes and antics, you’re left with things that are either axiomatic (Alabama’s football team would be different if the university had stricter admissions standards, for example) or completely harmless. It’s hard to draw a straight line from “built a hot tub in his dorm” to “can’t win in Cleveland,” but don’t overestimate the NFL’s aversion to controversy in 2018.

Consensus: A safe choice, but I’d like to see these odds just a little longer.

Josh Allen (QB, Wyoming): +250

When college fans heard that Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen was getting a lot of attention from NFL scouts, they responded with a resounding “who?” Upon review, he does appear to have all the pieces NFL scouts look for in a quarterback, in that he’s tall, has huge hands, and can throw the ball a mile; but suffice it to say, he leaves a little to be desired in terms of college achievement. Winning eight games (and the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl) against a Mountain West schedule isn’t exactly the best resume available in the draft.

Some are hesitant because Allen has some issues with accuracy and didn’t exactly thrive at Wyoming. Some like to draw comparisons to Brett Favre and call him a gunslinger. He’s a polarizing player, is what we’re saying, and there’s no way to see which side of this particular fence the Browns are sitting on.

Consensus: Of the favored quarterbacks, definitely the best value. Some scouts hate him, some scouts love him, everyone acknowledges he could very well be the first to have his name called.

Baker Mayfield (QB, Oklahoma): +500

Baker Mayfield is one of the most productive quarterbacks in the history of college football, but NFL scouts see a lot of question marks. He’s not very tall. He improvises a lot. He was arrested. And if you break down the tape, it doesn’t say good things about his judgement or his elusiveness. He grabbed his crotch against Kansas, planted a flag in Columbus, and talks trash like a Florida State defensive back. Personally, I find those qualities endearing — quarterbacks are all hyper-competitive loons and Baker at least has the decency to show it — but the Cleveland Browns might have had their fill of that kind of thing. Johnny Manziel is still doing his very best to rehabilitate his image, and I’m sure the Browns would like that pick back.

Baker Mayfield is one of the most productive quarterbacks in the history of college football, but NFL scouts see a lot of question marks.

Consensus: Most scouts have Mayfield as a mid-round guy, and only a few mocks have him #1. It will certainly be a surprise if he gets it, and a much bigger surprise than these odds afford.

Saquon Barkley (RB, Penn State): +600

In today’s NFL, running backs don’t normally get picked first in the draft. However, Saquon Barkley isn’t a normal running back, and this isn’t a normal draft.

Barkley proved himself to be something of a special player at Penn State, breaking off huge run after huge run, while also displaying an ability to contribute in the passing game. He was thrilling in any way you like, with power, dynamic movement, and more than sufficient hands. He’s one of the few running backs left who make every drive a must-watch event. With the success of pass-catching backs like Kareem Hunt and Alvin Kamara becoming something of a trend in the NFL, the Browns could be tempted to make Barkley the #1 pick. If the Browns find a quarterback in free agency, they’ll be free to skip the Darnold/Allen/Rosen dilemma altogether. If the Browns decide whoever’s left at #4 will be good enough, taking Barkley #1 makes sense.

Consensus: If you think the Browns are going to acquire a QB in free agency or with the #4 pick, Saquon Barkley is the best player on the board. Keep an eye on what Kirk Cousins and AJ McCarron do. But if the Browns do go the free agency route for their pivot, also keep an eye on whether they proceed to shop the #1 pick.

Bradley Chubb (DE, NC State): +2500

There’s an argument about who the top defensive prospect in this draft is, and it’s between Bradley Chubb and Minkah Fitzpatrick. Chubb is a prototypical pass-rusher: 6’4 and 275 pounds, with all the speed you could ever want. While he was at NC State, Chubb recorded 10 sacks in two straight seasons, and helped establish NC State as the scariest defensive front in the country. As good as he is, however, it’s not likely that he’ll be taken first overall.

The Browns took Myles Garrett with the #1 pick last year, so it’s unlikely that they’ll take another pass rusher. This bet therefore relies on the Browns trading down, and someone with edge-rushing needs moving up (Indianapolis?). It all seems a little Byzantine, and certainly not as likely as taking the other player at these odds, Minkah Fitzpatrick.

Consensus: Really unlikely, unless the Browns trade the pick to someone who doesn’t need a quarterback and also didn’t draft Myles Garrett. Better to take Fitzpatrick if you want a defensive player.

Minkah Fitzpatrick (DB, Alabama): +2500

One of the best players at any position in the draft, Minkah Fitzpatrick will be immensely valuable to whichever team picks him. He was the animating force of Alabama’s secondary, which was the animating force of Alabama’s defense, which was the animating force of the national championship team. Fitzpatrick has become exceptionally good at playing an exceptionally tricky position, the fifth DB in a nickel defense, at the same time that more and more NFL teams are moving towards nickel as a base. Fitzpatrick is thus a niche player in a very popular niche, and if the Browns want a versatile and productive defensive back, he’s by far the best prospect in the draft.

Fitzpatrick has become exceptionally good at playing an exceptionally tricky position.

Consensus: An interesting long-shot, for sure. The odds are certainly long enough to make this an intriguing wager.

FIELD (any other player): +1200

Here you’re betting on a surprise, something the NFL Draft is not known for. Ask yourself, when was the last time the #1 pick in the draft was a genuine surprise? Even within this list, there’s some real longshots; a few somewhat unlikely things have to happen independently for Bradley Chubb to go first overall, and getting outside of this list will require something akin to a safecracking.

Consensus: If the player picked first isn’t somewhere on this list, I’ll pay you much longer odds than +1200. That’s an implied probability of just under 8%, which vastly overstates the odds.