- The NFL season kicks off with the Packers and Bears on Thursday Night Football
- All signs point to a monster game from Allen Robinson, and a slow start for Green Bay’s rushing attack
- See which props offer the most value for the season opener
The NFL season kicks off Thursday and while point spreads and totals remain an extremely efficient market, there’s plenty of value to be found betting props. The season opener between the Packers vs Bears provides an excellent opportunity to leverage last year’s data to discover profitable wagers and Allen Robinson appears to be in line for a monster game.
Prop #1: Allen Robinson Over/Under 4.5 Receptions
|Allen Robinson Receptions||Odds|
Robinson is Chicago’s clear-cut number one pass catcher and led the Bears in targets in both games versus Green Bay last season. He averaged nine targets and 5.8 receptions per game over his final five contests in 2018 and should feast on a Packers secondary that allowed the highest schedule adjusted target rate to number one wide receivers last season according to Football Outsiders.
Allen Robinson’s Final 5 Games of 2018
He towers over Green Bay’s number one corner Jaire Alexander and he excels against man coverage, which is the Packers preferred defensive scheme.
Allen Robinson with the touchdown. (Also, Shead shouldn’t be playing, but that’s for later) pic.twitter.com/QMZLxWtP4G
— Ian Wharton (@NFLFilmStudy) November 11, 2018
According to Sports Info Solutions, Robinson had the NFL’s third highest target rate against man coverage last season, while Green Bay ran man coverage at the league’s fourth highest rate. Expect A-Rob to be peppered with targets and to snag at least five catches.
Pick: Robinson over 4.5 receptions (-114)
Risk: 1 unit to win 0.88 units
Prop #2: David Montgomery Will Have More Rushing Yards Than Aaron Jones
The Packers spent a ton of money in the offseason to bolster their pass rush, but did little to improve a run defense that ranked 29th in DVOA in 2018. They cut their top rush defender Mike Daniels and appear to be vulnerable against a Chicago ground attack that averaged 120 yards per game versus this unit last season. The Bears should feature rookie of the year candidate David Montgomery early and often in this one after the Iowa State product flashed in the preseason.
— PFF (@PFF) August 9, 2019
He led all of college football in missed tackles forced in 2018 and draws a much more favorable matchup than the Packers’ Aaron Jones. Chicago’s run defense ranked 1st in DVOA last season and returns every key member up front.
Jones has averaged just 3.45 yards per carry in three career games versus the Bears and has been much less efficient on the road over his two seasons. He averages just 45 rushing yards per game away from home and failed to eclipse 42 yards in four of seven road games last season.
Pick: David Montgomery (-149)
Risk: 1 unit to win 0.67 units
Prop #3: Geronimo Allison Will Have At Least 46 Receiving Yards
|Receiving Yards (At Least)||Odds|
|Geronimo Allison (46)||+100|
Geronimo Allison will operate out of the slot this season for the Packers, a role he thrived in last season before an injury cut his campaign short. In his four starts in 2018, he produced totals of 69, 64, 76 and 80 yards to go along with a pair of touchdowns.
“Aaron, what do you think it’s going to be like throwing to Geronimo Allison this season?”pic.twitter.com/fxUL23AAbO
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) May 11, 2019
He’ll draw corner Buster Skrine, who gave up the third most yards in slot coverage last year, and with most of the defensive attention being paid to Davante Adams, Allison should thrive.
Pick: Allison at least 46 receiving yards (+100)
Risk: 1 unit to win 1 unit
Let's have fun and keep it civil.