- Online betting sites have a prop that allows you to bet on exactly what position each NFL team will finish in their division in 2020
- The Jacksonville Jaguars are clearly the worst team in the AFC South
- Teams like the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers could finish higher in their divisions than expected
When it comes to NFL futures, bettors are always able to bet on which teams will win each division. However, sportsbooks have now taken those props a step further and are allowing you to bet on the exact place in the standings where each team will finish.
With odds up on the board for all 32 teams, where is the value in terms of betting this prop?
2020 NFL Final Standings Odds
|AFC East Odds||1st||2nd||3rd||4th|
|New England Patriots||+125||+175||+350||+900|
|New York Jets||+650||+350||+200||+140|
|Kansas City Chiefs||-350||+300||+1200||+5000|
|Las Vegas Raiders||+800||+250||+200||+160|
|Los Angeles Chargers||+800||+250||+200||+175|
|New York Giants||+900||+450||+140||+140|
|Green Bay Packers||+125||+200||+400||+650|
|New Orleans Saints||-125||+200||+450||+2500|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+200||+140||+250||+1400|
|San Francisco 49ers||-125||+250||+450||+1000|
|Los Angeles Rams||+400||+225||+175||+400|
Odds taken March 30.
Jaguars To Finish Fourth
I’m looking over the Jacksonville Jaguars roster and I don’t see any way that this team isn’t one of the worst in the NFL in the upcoming season. They were a bad team last season when they finished 6-10 and were in last place in the AFC South and I see little changing in 2020.
#Jaguars: 2020 Offseason so far:
LB Joe Schobert
CB Darqueze Dennard
DL Rodney Gunter
DL Al Woods
DE/LB Cassius Marsh
CB Rashaan Melvin
TE Tyler Eifert
2 2020 4th round picks
1 2020 5th round pick
Pretty good so far!
12 draft picks and the Foles contract is gone! pic.twitter.com/0bOUSE8DuN
— Chance Hester (@CoachHester27) March 25, 2020
On offense, they’ve decided to hand the reins to Gardner Minshew II under center. While he’s not bad, he’s going to have to elevate his game next season if he’s going to be a real difference-maker. He did win plenty of games in 2019 but keep in mind that the wins came against teams like the Indianapolis Colts, New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals and Denver Broncos.
The parts around Minshew aren’t good. The Jags gave up 42 sacks (15th in NFL) and the weapons in the passing game are limited to D.J. Chark, Marqise Lee and Dede Westbrook. The signing of tight end Tyler Eifert won’t change how inconsistent this unit will be.
Broncos 2020 week one spending:
Player ….…. 2020 …… Total
Glasgow .. $15M … 4 yrs, $44M
Bouye …. $13.5M … 2, $27M
Casey … $11.85M … 3, $38M
Gordon ….… $9M … 2, $16M
Vannett ……. $3M … 2, $5.7M
Driskel …… $2.5M … 2, $5M
Total ……. $54.9M … $135.7M#9sports https://t.co/tRHn06vnh0
— Mike Klis (@MikeKlis) March 23, 2020
On top of that, this defense has really been stripped for parts. One of the most feared units just a couple of seasons ago, their secondary is in shambles after trading Jalen Ramsey last season and losing A.J. Bouye this offseason. They also dumped Calais Campbell for peanuts.
Don’t forget about the stale coaching staff, which somehow survived. They should have been fired last season. Overall, the AFC South has three decent teams that should be around 7-9 and 10-6, and then there is the Jaguars. I fully expect this team to finish last.
Pick: Jaguars to finish 4th (-200)
Chargers To Finish Second
The AFC West is the Kansas City Chiefs’ to lose. The other three teams will be vying for second place. With the Las Vegas Raiders, the fact that they’re sticking with Derek Carr for now limits their ceiling. As for the Denver Broncos, they had a good offseason but I’m not entirely sure what to expect from them.
One squad that I see as offering some value here is the Los Angeles Chargers to finish second. Of course, this is a team that let go of quarterback Philip Rivers but that might be a good thing. Tyrod Taylor doesn’t have the same ceiling but he also isn’t as turnover-prone.
There's been some confusion with teams like the Chargers falling in the Improvement Index after having a seemingly good offseason. QBs have an outsized impact, so I'm removing them from the equation on this plot for another perspective pic.twitter.com/kyPq18ACY5
— Kevin Cole (@KevinColePFF) March 25, 2020
What I really like about this team is the defense. They added Linval Joseph up front on the defensive line and cornerback Chris Harris to the back end. This should be one of the best secondaries in the NFL. With Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram wreaking havoc up front, this should be a top-five or top-ten unit.
On offense, the Chargers won’t be flashy but if they can run the ball, move the chains and put points on the board when they’re there, they’ll be in decent shape. Remember, this team lost a ton of close games (nine losses by seven or less), so if that regresses to the mean, they’ll be in the seven or eight-win range already.
Bryan Bulaga allowed pressure and rank amongst tackles (min 600 snaps)
2019: 26 (17th)
2018: 22 (10th)
2017: 12 (only played 5 games) pic.twitter.com/UZRw8frUoM
— PFF LA Chargers (@PFF_Chargers) March 28, 2020
If the defense is rock-solid and Taylor can be effective with a decent cast around him – or if the Chargers land a good rookie quarterback who can elevate the offense – this team should be good enough to finish second in the AFC West. They’re being overlooked right now because of the Rivers loss but they’re still a decent team.
Pick: Chargers to finish 2nd (+250)
Miami Dolphins To Finish Third
For this prop, we simply need the Dolphins to be better than one other team in the AFC East and I think that’s likely. Are they going to be as good as the Buffalo Bills or the New England Patriots – two playoff teams from last season? Probably not. Can they be better than the New York Jets? Absolutely.
I’m not entirely sure why the Dolphins are projected to be worse than the Jets but it’s likely because of the quarterback situation. The Jets have Sam Darnold while the Dolphins don’t really have a solution. However, the Jets have virtually nobody to help Darnold. We saw that Le’Veon Bell had minimal impact, the offensive line is bad and there aren’t any receivers on the team.
Every time Adam Gase and Le'Veon Bell see each other this offseasonpic.twitter.com/QfOKUSo97H
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) February 5, 2020
Miami finished with five wins last year and was far more competitive than anybody imagined. Their coaching staff was effective as the team improved as the season progressed. They deserve a lot of credit. I have more faith in them than I do the Jets staff, which is led by Adam Gase.
Beyond that, take a look at the Dolphins offseason. They’ve bolstered their defense with the likes of Shaq Lawson, Kyle Van Noy, Emmanuel Ogbah and Byron Jones. On offense, they bolstered the offensive line and adding running back Jordan Howard. They’re in position to add a quarterback like Tua Tagovailoa in the NFL Draft, which should give their offense a big boost.
Quincy Enunwa (neck) has been rehabbing at the facility. Douglas says he’s “excited to have him back,” but stopped short of saying he has been medically cleared. #Jets
— Rich Cimini (@RichCimini) February 25, 2020
To me, the Jets are the worst team in this division – even if they have Darnold and Bell. They’re poorly coached and Darnold has nobody to throw to. Quincy Enunwa, who is still battling spinal stenosis, Josh Doctson and Breshad Perriman are the top three wideouts on the team.
I’d bet on the Dolphins to finish third in the AFC East. The Jets are the team that should be in line for a fourth-place finish.
Pick: Dolphins to finish 3rd (+225)
Let's have fun and keep it civil.