Week 15 NFL Picks Against the Spread
- Week 15 of the 2020 NFL season continues Saturday, December 19th
- Our Best Bets were 1-2 in Week 14 (19-25-1 overall, -7.74 units)
- Read below for analysis on the Week 15 NFL slate and our favorite ATS picks
Last week we wrote in detail about Tom Brady’s prolific record against the spread following a loss. TB12 came through once again, helping Tampa Bay cover as 6.5-point favorites over Minnesota, and this week we’ll focus on a similar trend involving his former head coach.
Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots are fresh off an embarassing 24-3 Week 14 defeat to the LA Rams on Thursday Night Football, which we know didn’t sit well with BB. Historically, Belichick has been money ATS in games following a double-digit loss, and we’ll be looking to ride that trend again on Sunday.
Week 15 ATS Picks
| Matchup | Spread | Pick | Units Risked |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins | MIA (-1.5) | NE (+1.5) | 1 |
| New York Jets vs Los Angeles Rams | LAR (-17.5) | LAR (-17.5) | 1 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons | TB (-6) | TB (-6) | 1 |
Odds taken Dec. 18th at FanDuel. See bottom for rest of Week 15 Picks.
Pick #1: Patriots Over Dolphins
Belichick led teams are 19-5 ATS in the next contest after a 10+ point defeat and the Patriots are getting 1.5-points in Miami. The Dolphins will once again roll with rookie Tua Tagovailoa, and we know how poorly first-year quarterbacks fare against the Patriots.
Since 2012, rookie QBs are 0-11 versus New England. They’ve thrown just 7 TD in those outings, compared to 17 INT, and are completing just 50.7% of their passes. The lastest victim: Future Rookie of the Year Justin Herbert. The LA Chargers star completed only 49% of his passes earlier this month in a 45-0 defeat to New England, while taking three sacks and throwing two interceptions.
Justin Herbert is having exactly the day all rookie QB’s have against Bill Belichick. It’s a rite of passage. Kid has had a great year and is gonna be a great player. #Chargers
— Mike Greenberg (@Espngreeny) December 6, 2020
These two teams met in Week 1, and the Patriots held the Dolphins to 269 total yards and 11 points en route to victory. Miami’s biggest strength on defense is against the pass, which plays right into New England’s hands. Only four teams average more rushing yards per game than the Pats, and they ran all over the Fins to the tune of 217 yards and three rushing TD back in Week 1.
Pick #2: Rams Cover vs Jets
The Rams are laying 17.5-points in Week 15 over the New York Jets, which would normally scream stay away, but we might not be able to bet against Adam Gase for much longer.
Adam Gase feels as though he's let Jets CEO Christopher Johnson down:
"I'm trying to figure out where things went wrong" pic.twitter.com/VRdQnn9vhy
— Jets Videos (@snyjets) December 16, 2020
As an underdog of 5.5-points or more, Gase led teams are 5-19 ATS. The Jets have lost seven games this season by at least 17 points, and have been atrocious with Sam Darnold under center. New York has failed to score a touchdown in three of Darnold’s last four starts, and have been blown out in every contest away from home.
Joe Flacco has: more touchdowns, and 6 less interceptions than Sam Darnold with half as many games played
Therefore…
Flacco is ELITE pic.twitter.com/wqAZ7M9BGH— NFL Punch (@NFLpunch) December 18, 2020
They’ve been outscored by 119 points in five Darnold road starts, and are fresh off a 40-3 drubbing at the hands of Seattle.
Los Angeles meanwhile, has won four of five, including two straight by double-digits, and are the fifth highest graded team by DVOA. They’re elite on both sides of the ball, and should absolutely trounce the winless Jets.
Aaron Donald among all defenders:
🔹 PFF Grade: 93.0 (1st)
🔹 Total Pressures: 71 (1st)
🔹 Sacks: 12 (T-1st)The top defender in football 🥇
(powered by @awscloud) pic.twitter.com/El0DyW7POK
— PFF (@PFF) December 10, 2020
Also working in LA’s favor if the fact that even when New York is getting blown out they don’t play with any urgency. They continue to force feed 37-year-old Frank Gore carries which won’t work out well against Aaron Donald and company.
Pick #3: Buccaneers Blast Falcons
Finally, we’re going to back to Brady and the Bucs at Atlanta as 6-point favorites. The Falcons will be without Julio Jones, and his absence has had a huge impact on Matt Ryan in 2020. In four games without Julio, Ryan is averaging just 218.25 passing yards. He has a 4-7 TD-to-INT rate in those outings, and a 1-3 record.
Matt Ryan is not the problem with the Falcons. However, he isn't the solution either and anyone that fails to understand that his talent is diminishing simply has their head in the sand.
There hasn't been a bigger Matt Ryan apologist than myself but father time is undefeated
— J.Ben (@JBenSports) December 7, 2020
Last week without Jones, he threw 3 picks against the LA Chargers in a three-point loss, and now has to face a Buccaneers defense that is among the best in the league. Tampa Bay is the fifth highest graded defense by DVOA, and racked up six sacks and a turnover last week against Minnesota. They held Kirk Cousins to 225 yards through the air, and no team yields fewer rushing yards per game.
Strip sack fumble interception. It should be a stat.
Let's show some love for the defensive line holding it down for the defense. pic.twitter.com/wV5tVI3jfh
— Buccaneers Observer (@Bucs_Observer) December 15, 2020
Offensively, all of Brady’s receiving weapons are healthy and should feast on a Falcons defense that is allowing the third most passing yards per game.
Week 15 Quick Picks
- Bills (-6) vs Broncos: Denver’s secondary is completely decimated which spells trouble against one of the league’s best passing attacks.
- Packers (-7.5) vs Panthers: The Packers march towards the NFC’s number one seed continues with a lopsided win over Carolina.
- Bears (+3.5) vs Vikings: Minnesota barely beat Carolina and Jacksonville, then was trounced by Tampa Bay. Chicago meanwhile, looked excellent last week and should be able to hang with the Vikes.
- Titans (-10.5) vs Lions: Detroit boasts one of the league’s worst run defenses and now has to face Derrick Henry on his quest for a 2,000 yard season. I don’t like their chances.
- Texans (+7.5) vs Colts: Too many points for a divisional matchup. Houston nearly upset Indy just two weeks ago.
- Jaguars (-12.5) vs Ravens: Baltimore can not afford to lose, but may take their foot off the gas long enough for Jacksonville to cover through the backdoor.
- Cowboys (+3) vs 49ers: Nick Mullens leads the NFL in turnover worthy plays since becoming San Fran’s starter. It was a problem last week versus Washington, and it will be a problem this week as well.
- Washington (+6.5) vs Seahawks: Speaking of the Football Team, they have a huge advantage over Seattle in the trenches which should help them keep this game close.
- Cardinals (-6.5) vs Eagles: Jalen Hurts caught the Saints by surprise, but we can expect Arizona to be ready with a game plan that confuses the rookie.
- Chiefs (-2.5) vs Saints: Drew Brees may be back, but I would bet KC at this number against anytime in the league on any field.
- Giants (+6.5) vs Browns: Must win game for both teams, but 6.5 points feels too high. Give me the ‘dog.
- Steelers (-13) vs Bengals: Pittsburgh’s offense has been stuck in the mud, but it’s tough to imagine Cincy putting up much of a fight with its own QB woes.
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
