- The Buffalo Bills clash with the Miami Dolphins in Week 2 on Sunday (Sept. 19th, 1 pm ET)
- Emmanuel Sanders played on 92.9% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps in Week 1, drawing eight targets
- Read below for analysis and our favorite Bills-Dolphins player prop bets
Fresh off an underwhelming Week 1 performance, the Buffalo Bills travel to Miami Sunday afternoon to face the Dolphins in Week 2 (Sept. 19th, 1 pm ET).
Buffalo, one of the highest scoring teams in 2020, mustered just 16 points last week, but still kept true to its identity by throwing well above expectation.
Nothing we’ve seen since from the Bills over the past 12 months suggest they’re going to abandon their pass heavy approach, and we’ll look to capitalize on that in the player prop market this week.
Bills vs Dolphins Player Props
|Quarterback||Completions||Passing Yards||Passing TD|
|Josh Allen (BUF)||25.5 (Ov +100 | Un -130)||290.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||1.5 (Ov -215 | Un +160)|
|Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)||21.5 (Ov -125 | Un -102)||242.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||1.5 (Ov +115 | Un -155)|
|Running Backs||Attempts||Rush Yards||Rush + Receiving Yards|
|Devin Singletary (BUF)||8.5 (Ov -135 | Un +105)||36.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||57.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)|
|Myles Gaskin (MIA)||1.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)||47.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||75.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)|
|Wide Receivers + Tight Ends||Receptions||Receiving Yards||Longest Reception|
|Stefon Diggs (BUF)||6.5 (Ov -145 | Un +110)||86.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||25.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)|
|Cole Beasley (BUF)||4.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)||56.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||20.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)|
|Emmanuel Sanders (BUF)||4.5 (Ov +125 | Un -165)||47.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)||19.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)|
|Dawson Knox (BUF)||2.5 (Ov -160 | Un +120)||27.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||14.5 (Ov -125 | Un -105)|
|DeVante Parker (MIA)||3.5 (Ov -170 | Un +125)||49.5 (Ov -115 | Un -115)||20.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)|
|Jaylen Waddle (MIA)||3.5 (Ov -145 | Un +110)||46.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)||19.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)|
|Mike Gesicki (MIA)||2.5 (Ov -105 | Un -125)||26.5 (Ov -110 | Un -120)||14.5 (Ov -120 | Un -110)|
Buffalo is a 3.5-point road favorite, in a game that features a total of 47.5. These two teams averaged 70.5 points in their two meetings last season, giving fans hope that another high scoring affair is on deck, despite potential weather concerns. The forecast is currently calling for a 90% chance of rain, with risk of a thunderstorm.
Prop #1: Emmanuel Sanders Over 47.5 Receiving Yards
The Bills dropped Josh Allen back 50 times in Week 1, which shouldn’t come as a surprise. Buffalo was one of the league leaders in pass rate over expectation last season, and threw on 28 of Allen’s 33 preseason snaps.
Newcomer Emmanuel Sanders jumped right into a voluminous role last Sunday, and that should continue versus the Dolphins. Sanders tied Stefon Diggs for the highest snap share among Buffalo wide receivers (92.9%), and drew eight targets.
Air yards leaders so far:
1. Tyreek Hill: 231 air yards
2. DJ Chark: 199
3. Ceedee Lamb: 159
4. Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 156
5. Stefon Diggs: 150
6. Emmanuel Sanders: 159
7. Antonio Brown: 144
8. Brandin Cooks: 132
9. Amari Cooper: 127
10. Anthony Schwartz: 132
— Sam Hoppen (@SamHoppen) September 13, 2021
Diggs will draw primary coverage from Miami’s top corner Xavien Howard, opening up more opportunity for Sanders.
The 34-year-old averaged 13 yards per reception in Week 1 versus the Steelers, which is exactly in line with his career mark.
Pick: Emmanuel Sanders Over 47.5 receiving yards (-120), 1 unit
Prop #2: Myles Gaskin Over 47.5 Rushing Yards
Miami ran just 52 plays against New England in Week 1, which significantly impacted Myles Gaskin’s workload. The third year running back saw just nine carries, but still managed 5.4 yards per attempt.
He played the most snaps of any Dolphins RB, and stands to gain an increased workload against Buffalo. The Bills invite teams to run the ball, choosing to prioritize coverage instead.
Myles Gaskin was the best back on the field for Miami. Efficient decisions, slippery elusiveness, flexibility all on display. Added 24 yards to his 9 runs, compared to 0 yards added by Ahmed and Brown on 8 combined carries. pic.twitter.com/q9re4ixTGn
— J Moyer (@JMoyerFB) September 15, 2021
As Miami’s primary running back in 2020, Gaskin earned 14 or more carries in six of eight starts, clearing 55 yards on the ground five times.
Buffalo was Pro Football Focus’ 12th lowest graded rush defense in Week 1, and ranked 28th in that metric a season ago.
Pick: Myles Gaskin Over 47.5 rushing yards (-115), 1 unit
Bills vs Dolphins Scoring Props
|Player||Odds to Score 1st TD||Odds to Score Anytime TD|
|Stefon Diggs (BUF)||+700||+105|
|Josh Allen (BUF)||+800||+130|
|Myles Gaskin (MIA)||+1000||+150|
|DeVante Parker (MIA)||+1100||+185|
|Cole Beasley (BUF)||+1100||+190|
|Devin Singletary (BUF)||+1100||+185|
|Mike Gesicki (MIA)||+1300||+230|
|Dawson Knox (BUF)||+1400||+250|
|Jaylen Waddle (MIA)||+1500||+230|
|Emmanuel Sanders (BUF)||+1700||+320|
|Matt Breida (BUF)||+1700||+320|
|Zack Moss (BUF)||+1700||+320|
|Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)||+1800||+360|
|Isaiah McKenzie (BUF)||+1900||+370|
|Gabriel Davis (BUF)||+1900||+370|
|Malcolm Brown (MIA)||+2300||+390|
|Albert Wilson (MIA)||+2300||+450|
|Jakeem Grant (MIA)||+3700||+650|
Prop #3: Tagovailoa To Score 1st TD
Between the quarterbacks, Allen will draw all the action as a touchdown scorer in this matchup and rightfully so. Dating back to 2018, he’s scored more rushing touchdowns (25) than Ezekiel Elliott (24). But don’t sleep on Tua Tagovailoa. The former Alabama star has serious upside with his feet, scoring four rushing touchdowns in his past six starts alone.
TUA TOUCHDOWNS 🤙 @Tua
— Alabama Football (@AlabamaFTBL) September 12, 2021
Tagovailoa wasn’t a prolific rusher in college, but he still scored nine times on the ground, and represents excellent value at +1800 odds to be the game’s first touchdown scorer.
Pick: Tua Tagovailoa 1st TD (+1800), 0.25 units
Prop #4: Knox To Score Anytime TD
Dawson Knox caught all four of his targets last week, and is a sneaky bet to find paydirt versus Miami. The Dolphins will likely be preoccupied with Diggs and Buffalo’s other receiving threats, which could allow Knox to slip through the cracks.Advertising Disclosure
Miami coughed up eight receptions to Patriots tight ends last week, and allowed a 64% completion rate to tight ends in the red zone last season. Knox meanwhile, has caught a TD pass in five of his past 10 games, after starting his career with just 2 touchdowns in his first 21 contests.
Pick: Dawson Knox Anytime TD (+250), 0.25 units