Week 1 NFL Picks Against the Spread
- Week 1 of the 2021 NFL season continues Sunday, September 12th
- Green Bay is 6-1 ATS in September under Matt LaFleur over the past two seasons
- Read below for analysis on the Week 1 NFL slate and our favorite ATS picks
We’ve been patiently waiting for the past seven months, but finally the NFL is back. League schedulers have rewarded our patience with a 14-game slate to sweat on Sunday, making the first full day on the NFL calendar feel like Christmas morning.
Without further delay, let’s get into our favorite ATS picks of the week, starting with the Green Bay Packers taking on the New Orleans Saints.
Week 1 ATS Picks
| Matchup | Spread | Pick | Units Risked |
|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints | GB (-3.5) | GB (-3.5) | 1 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills | BUF (-6.5) | BUF (-6.5) | 1 |
| Minnesota Vikings vs Cincinnati Bengals | MIN (-3) | MIN (-3) | 1 |
Odds as of Sept. 9th at FanDuel and DraftKings. See bottom for rest of Week 1 Picks.
Pick #1: Packers Pound Saints
The Packers are 3.5-point favorites, in a game that will no longer be played in New Orleans due to Hurricane Ida. Instead, Jacksonville will be the venue, erasing any potential Saints home field advantage.
These two teams met last season, and Green Bay hung 37 points on New Orleans without star receiver Davante Adams. The outlook for 2020’s highest scoring offense is just as good this week, as reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers will face a depleted Saints defense.
Aaron Rodgers has won 3 MVP’s in the last 10 years.
Nobody else has won more than one in that time frame. #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/RLriGYX67Q
— Dillon Graff (@DillonGraff) September 3, 2021
New Orleans suffered major losses to free agency and injury on the defensive line, while their secondary was suspect enough to warrant trading for Bradley Roby and signing Desmond Trufant this week.
Sure, the loss of David Bakhtiari for the first six weeks hurts, but the Packers o-line is in good shape with his replacement. Pro Bowl left guard Elgton Jenkins will slide over to tackle, after allowing just one sack and two QB hits over 702 snaps last season.
On the other side of the ball, how can you not be excited to bet against Jameis Winston. The former number one overall pick produced 44 turnover worthy throws in his last full season as a starter and that was with an elite pass catching group.
Jameis Winston has the most turnovers in the NFL since 2014 among active QBs.
Despite not starting a game last season.
And not being drafted until 2015. pic.twitter.com/9WoYMQJKPA
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) May 28, 2021
Outside of Alvin Kamara, the Saints are devoid of offensive talent. Marcus Callaway, an undrafted 2020 free agent, is the Saints top wideout, while the Packers boast an elite secondary. Jaire Alexander was Pro Football Focus’ second highest graded corner last season, while both Adrian Amos (1) and Darnell Savage (14) were top-14 graded safeties in coverage.
Another feather in Green Bay’s cap: the Packers are 6-1 ATS in September under Matt LaFleur over the past two seasons.
Pick #2: Bills Squash Steelers
Our second target is the reigning AFC East champion Buffalo Bills, who face the Pittsburgh Steelers, last year’s AFC North winner. The Bills are 6.5-point home favorites, and feature one of the most dangerous offenses in football. Josh Allen is a top-three MVP candidate, and Buffalo rarely takes the ball out of his hands. The Bills were one of the leaders in pass rate over expectation in 2020, and dropped Allen back on 28 of his 33 preseason snaps.
What a perfect throw by Josh Allen to Stefon Diggs for the go-ahead TD. pic.twitter.com/ERmEAetgUr
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) November 16, 2020
Whey they do chose to run, Allen is also the best option. He scampered for 421 yards in his third season, and has scored more rushing touchdowns (25) than Ezekiel Elliott (24) since 2018.
Stefon Diggs, last year’s receiving leader, torched the Steelers in 2020 for 10 catches, 130 yards and a score, and will face a less imposing defense then what Pittsburgh fielded last season. Defensive lineman Stephon Tuitt is out with a knee injury, while experienced corners Steven Nelson and Mike Hilton, as well as edge rusher Bud Dupree all left in the offseason. To make matters worse, DPOY candidate T.J. Watt held out for all of August. Advantage Buffalo.
On the other side of the ball, the Steelers averaged just 5.0 yards per play last season, and once again are battling offensive line issues. They’re starting a fourth round rookie at left tackle, and only one of their returning lineman had an above average PFF grade in 2020.
That spells trouble against the Bills who beefed up their pass rushing unit with their first and second round picks, and also feature Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison and Ed Oliver on their defensive line.
Pick #3: Viking Beat Up Bengals
The last game on our betting card features Minnesota travelling to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals. The Vikings are 3-point favorites, and will be on the right side of a big mismatch in the trenches.
Minnesota is getting back All-Pro pass rusher Danielle Hunter, who missed all of 2020 with a neck injury, and defensive tackle Michael Pierce, who opted out of last season. Pierce and newly signed Dalvin Tomlinson both boast 84th percentile run defense grades since 2017, while Hunter had 29 sacks combined over 2018 and 2019.
Out of 17 games this season, the Bengals play a Top-15 DL in the PFF Rankings 11 times.
With a single injury on the interior of the OL, they will have a rookie protecting Joe Burrow off major knee reconstruction.
The offensive line is better, but it could go south quickly.
— Andrew Russell (@Andrew_Russell7) September 1, 2021
Cincy took small steps to improve their bottom-five offensive line from a season ago, but they passed on a generational first round o-line talent for wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, and the early returns are not good. Chase struggled in camp and the preseason, as did the Bengals first-team offense. Joe Burrow reportedly didn’t look 100% all offseason, and is coming off an ACL/MCL tear 10 months ago.
On the other side of the ball, Dalvin Cook, last season’s second highest graded running back should feast. The Bengals ranked 25th in rush defense last season, and didn’t do enough in the offseason to significantly improve their 2021 outlook.
16 TDs last year. Expect @dalvincook to go BIG again this season 🔥#VikingsWorldwide | #Skol pic.twitter.com/QsTNxnhJrW
— Minnesota Vikings UK (@UKVikings) September 9, 2021
They’re already down a starting corner, while Cowboys castoff Chidobe Awuzie and journeyman Eli Apple are in for a long day against Adam Thielen, and last year’s breakout rookie receiver Justin Jefferson.
Week 1 Quick Picks
- Jaguars (-3) vs Texans: The Trevor Lawrence era starts off with a bang against a Houston team who appears to be in full blown tank mode already.
- Panthers (-4) vs Jets: Sam Darnold gets revenge against his former team by lighting up a secondary that features zero cornerbacks drafted higher than the fifth round.
- 49ers (-8) vs Lions: Jared Goff’s QBR over his last four meetings with the Niners led by Kyle Shanahan: 8.0, 35.5, 66.1, 0.9. Not surprisingly he lost all four of those games, and that was with a much better team than he’s inherited in Detroit.
- Seahawks (-2.5) vs Colts: Carson Wentz was one of the worst starting QB’s last season and is fresh off foot surgery. Seattle meanwhile, is healthy and features its strongest pass rush since its championship run in 2013.
- Titans (-3) vs Cardinals: Over 52 is by far my favorite bet in this game, but Tennessee should defend home field. The duo of AJ Brown and Julio Jones will give Arizona’s depleted secondary fits, while Derrick Henry should run wild versus last year’s third lowest graded run defense.
- Chargers (+1) vs Washington: Everyone is sleeping on LA in this spot. Joey Bosa and Derwin James are healthy, and while Washington excels at rushing the passer, no QB was better under duress last season than OROY Justin Herbert.
- Eagles (+3.5) vs Falcons: Atlanta will be better in 2021 under new head coach Arthur Smith, but this is too many points. The Falcons defense still projects as a below average unit, while Jalen Hurts is a nightmare to game plan for.
- Patriots (-3) vs Dolphins: Like Lawrence, the Mac Jones era starts off on a positive note. New England reloaded on defense, and will pound the ball relentlessly at a Miami D that is much better suited to stop the pass.
- Browns (+6) vs Chiefs: It’s always scary to bet against Patrick Mahomes, but this Cleveland team is loaded on both sides of the ball. Don’t look now, but KC has real depth issues, while the Browns elite pass rush will try to mimic Tampa Bay’s success from Super Bowl 55.
- Broncos (-3) vs Giants: Daniel Jones boasts an 8-18 career record as a starter and will be running for life against of the NFL’s premier pass rushing unit that returns former Super Bowl MVP Von Miller.
- Rams (-7.5) vs Bears: It’s hard to take a team seriously that chooses to start Andy Dalton over Justin Fields. The Bears haven’t won a game outright as an underdog of 7 or more points since 2017, while Matt Nagy led teams are 3-9 ATS as a ‘dog of 4.5 or more.
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
