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60% of Bettors Taking 49ers as 7.5-Point Favorites Against Packers; Should You Take the Points?

Daniel Coyle

by Daniel Coyle in NFL Football

Updated Mar 9, 2021 · 5:22 PM PST

Robert Saleh
San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh against the Arizona Cardinals during an NFL football game in Santa Clara, Calif., Sunday, Sept. 13, 2020. (AP Photo/Tony Avelar)
  • Sports bettors are siding with San Francisco in Sunday’s clash with the Packers
  • 60% of wager count is rising on the 49ers as 7.5-point favorites, while 78% of wagers are on the OVER
  • Niners are coming off their first ATS win while favored by 6.5 or more points since December 2013

The San Francisco 49ers have been far from a reliable while pegged as a big home favorites this season, recording just one win against the spread in five outings while favored by more than six points. That trend has not deterred sports bettors from flocking to the 49ers ahead of Sunday evening’s NFC Championship matchup against the Green Bay Packers, with 60% of the wager count going on San Francisco as 7.5-point in the NFL odds.

Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Green Bay Packers +7.5 (-106) +289 Ov 46.5 (-115)
San Francisco 49ers -7.5 (-115) -360 Un 46.5 (-115)

Odds taken 01/18/20.

Niners Coming Off Rare ATS Win as Heavy Chalk

San Francisco ended a six-year losing streak ATS while favored by 6.5 or more points on home turf with last weekend’s convincing 27-10 victory over the Minnesota Vikings. A 7-point home favorite in the NFC Divisional Round, the Niners are poised to claim their first Super Bowl berth in seven years with a win in Sunday’s clash with the Packers at Levi’s Stadium.

The support from both sports bettors and sharps, with 52% of their money backing San Francisco, has given the 49ers a slight lift since opening as 7-point favorites in the wake of last weekend’s win. With a dominant defensive performance, the 49ers look to have put their late-season woes behind them.

After opening the campaign with eight straight SU wins, the Niners struggled at times in the second half of the season, losing outright in three of six subsequent contests. The team also emerged as a betting disappointment on home turf, going 1-3-1 ATS while losing two of their final five regular-season dates at Levi’s Stadium.

Healthy Defense Gives 49ers a Lift

A rash of injuries that plagued the defense proved to be a contributing factor to the Niners’ struggles down the stretch. San Francisco saw as many as six players sidelined, including cornerbacks Richard Sherman and K’Waun Williams, and defensive end Dee Ford. Those injury woes were reflected on the scoreboard, with San Francisco surrendering an average of 29.4 points per game during its season-ending 3-2 SU run.

Following a bye on Wild Card Weekend, the Niners’ defense returned to full strength against the Vikings, limiting Minnesota to just 147 total yards, including just 21 yards on the ground. Ford contributed a tackle, a sack, and a pair of QB hits in his first action since mid-November, while an interception by Sherman, who was hampered by a hamstring injury down the stretch, set the stage for a Niners score that would put the game out of reach.

Following a bye on Wild Card Weekend, the Niners defense returned to full strength against the Vikings, limiting Minnesota to just 147 total yards, including just 21 yards on the ground

Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo also silenced the critics in his first playoff game as a starter, calmly navigating a Niners’ offense that held possession for over 38 minutes, while rusher Tevin Coleman scampered for 105 yards and a pair of scores, a performance that has made him an intriguing +700 wager to lead all players in rushing on Conference Championship Weekend.

Bettors Buck Trend by Flocking to the OVER

While the 49ers have dominated Green Bay over the past decade, claiming outright victories in five of seven matchups including a pair of playoff wins, recent clashes between these clubs have tended to be low-scoring affairs. These two teams have combined to score 45 or fewer points in three of their past four tilts, capped by the Niners’ 37-8 rout of the Packers as 3-point home chalk in Week 12.

However, with the OVER attracting 78% of wager count and 72% of sharp money, the total has seen an uptick since opening at 44.5, climbing to its current position at 46.5. That could be cause for concern for fans of the Packers, who have built their current six-game SU win streak on a sturdy defense.

Defense Key to Packers Playoff Fortunes

Green Bay made an impressive return to the NFL playoffs following a two-year absence, claiming top spot in the NFC North and the No. 2 seed ion the NFC with a 13-3 record. The Packers have also tightened up considerably on defense since their embarrassing loss in San Francisco, allowing just 15.7 points per game over their six recent wins, capped by a 28-23 victory over the Seattle Seahawks as 4.5-point home chalk last weekend.

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers turned in one of his steadiest performance of the season, connecting with Davante Adams on eight passes for 160 yards and two touchdowns. While Aaron Jones added a pair of scoring runs, the Packers’ offense will face a massive challenge to overcome the 49ers’ rejuvenated defense, but they should be able to do enough to remain within a possession of the Niners.

Picks: Packers +7.5 (-106); UNDER 46.5 (-115)

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