- Of all money wagered so far on Super Bowl 54, 67% of the handle is bet on the Kansas City Chiefs
- However, 80% of smart money is backing the San Francisco 49ers
- The Chiefs are currently one-point favorites – read below for our line movement prediction
The oddsmakers admit that it’s still very early in the game. With just over a week until Super Bowl 54 is played, sportsbooks have taken in about 40% of the money they expect to be bet on the big game.
To date, the public likes the Kansas City Chiefs. The smart money, though, is all over the San Francisco 49ers.
The Chiefs are currently one-point favorites to win the game.
San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs Odds
|San Francisco 49ers||+110||+1.0 (-105)||Over 54.5 (-110)|
|Kansas City Chiefs||-130||-1.0 (-115)||Under 54.5 (-110)|
Odds taken Jan. 19th.
Kansas City has never previously been a Super Bowl favorite.
Sportsbooks Keeping a Tight Line
When the 2020 Super Bowl kicks off at approximately 6:30 p.m. on Sunday, Feb. 2nd, it figures to do so with one of the shortest lines in the history of the game.
Sportsbooks’ first odds on the game showed the opening line with the Chiefs and 49ers listed as a pick. From there, the Chiefs were bet down to a one-point favorite. Quickly, though, the line reverted back to a pick.
Shortest Super Bowl Odds
|2015||New England Patriots-Seattle Seahawks pick||—|
|1982||San Francisco 49ers -1 over Cincinnati Bengals||Favorite|
|1973||Miami Dolphins -1 over Washington Redskins||Favorite|
|2019||New England Patriots -2.5 over Los Angeles Rams||Favorite|
|2014||Denver Broncos -2.5 over Seattle Seahawks||Underdog|
|2012||New England Patriots -2.5 over New York Giants||Underdog|
|1971||Baltimore Colts -2.5 over Dallas Cowboys||Favorite|
Then it jumped all the way to KC -1.5. Currently, the Chiefs are the one-point chalk.
Just one Super Bowl has gone off as a pick. That was in 2015, when the New England Patriots defeated the Seattle Seahawks 28-24.
Thirteen other Super Bowls have seen a line of three points or less. Favorites are 7-6 against the spread in those games.
Where the Money is Going
Currently, sportsbooks show 67% of its overall handle intake and 54% of all wagers laid thus far on the Super Bowl are putting their money on the Chiefs.
When the sharps are taken into account, the script is flipped. The smart money is all over the 49ers to the tune of 80%.
In terms of moneyline wagering, the 49ers are also the popular choice. Sportsbooks show 56% of the moneyline handle and 66% of all moneyline wagers being put down on San Francisco to win. The sharps like the Niners in the moneyline at 75%.
— Hard Rock Stadium (@HardRockStadium) January 24, 2020
At 54.5 points, the total seems lower than expected, considering the explosive abilities of these two offenses. The public agrees. They’ve played 83% of the handle and 85% of all wagers on the over.
Again, the sharps beg to differ, playing the under at a 62% rate.
Smart Money Playing a Waiting Game
Sportsbooks report that they’ve already handled some six-figure wagers on the game. About 90% of those big-ticket bets are placed on KC.
The oddsmakers note that there’s still a large amount of money still to be played. Right now, they indicate that the game is still in the public’s hands.
Norma Hunt is the only owner, and only woman, to have been to every Super Bowl.
— NFL (@NFL) January 25, 2020
Until they move the number to the wiseguys’ liking, they expect the sharps to sit on the sidelines like a sniper waiting to pick off what they view to be a bad price.
When that money comes in, if the trend among sharps continues toward the 49ers, we could be looking at the second pick line in Super Bowl history.
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