A.I. NFL Picks for Every Week 1 Game
By Sascha Paruk in NFL Football
Published:
- SportRadar’s A.I. has analyzed every NFL Week 1 game and set out its ATS and O/U picks for all 16 games
- Overall, our A.I. picks like the under to hi in 12 of 16 games
- Below, see our A.I. NFL picks for every Week 1 game
It’s a brave new world for NFL bettors, one in which certain people (myself included) can ask sophisticated A.I. models to analyze matchups and provide best bets. That’s exactly what I have done using the internal A.I. from SportRadar, SBD’s parent company.
Below, I have set out our A.I.’s picks against the spread and O/U predictions for all 16 games on the Week 1 schedule.
A.I. NFL Picks for Week 1
Picks generated on August 30, 2025. All odds from Draftkings. Claim the top football betting promo codes ahead of Week 1.
Bookmark SBD’s NFL odds page and NFL public betting splits to see up-to-the-minute lines and the betting trends for each game of the season.
BETMGM SPORTSBOOKUSE CODE SBD1500 & GET $1,500 BACK IN BONUS BETS
BET365 SPORTSBOOKBET $5 & GET $200 IN BONUS BETS WITH CODE DIME365
FANATICS SPORTSBOOKBET & GET UP TO $1,000 IN FANCASH!
DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOKBET $5 & GET $300 IN BONUS BETS INSTANTLY + OVER $200 OFF NFL SUNDAY TICKET!
FANDUEL SPORTSBOOKBET $5 & GET $300 IF YOUR BET WINS
CAESARS SPORTSBOOKUSE CODE SBD20X & BET $1 TO DOUBLE THE WINNINGS ON YOUR FIRST 20 WAGERS!
DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK T&Cs: GAMBLING PROBLEM? CALL 1-800-GAMBLER, (800) 327-5050 or visit gamblinghelplinema.org (MA). Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Please Gamble Responsibly. 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), or visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). 21+ and present in most states. (18+ DC/KY/NH/WY). Void in ONT/OR/NH. Eligibility restrictions apply. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS).
Must be 21+. GAMBLING PROBLEM? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (CO, IL, KS, KY, MD, MI, NC, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, VT, WV, WY); (800) 327-5050 or gamblinghelplinema.org (MA); (877) 8-HOPENY (NY); 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ); (888) 789-7777 (CT); 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA); 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN); mdgamblinghelp.org (MD); morethanagame.nc.gov (NC); 1800gambler.net (WV)
AI Picks for NFL Week 1 Skew Heavily to Unders
Unders are the most-pronounced trend in our AI picks for Week 1. The model likes the under in 12 of 16 games (75%), which includes targeting the under in the lowest total on the board: 38.5 in Steelers vs Jets, a number which opened at 41.5. The PIT/NYJ total was as low as 37.5 last week before some buy-back on the over.
Totals were split an even 8-8 in Week 1 of last season, but unders went a torrid 12-4 in Week 1 of the 2023 campaign.
AI NFL Picks Almost Evenly Split Between Favorites and Underdogs in Week 1
Our model isn’t showing a particular bias towards favorites or underdogs in Week 1. The 16 ATS picks include nine favorites to cover and seven underdogs.
It is, however, showing a potential bias towards big favorites. Five Week 1 spreads are sitting at six points or higher: Eagles (-7) vs Cowboys, Commanders (-6) vs Giants, Bengals (-6) at Browns, Broncos (-7.5) vs Titans, and Cardinals (-6.5) at Saints. Our AI model likes the favorite to cover in all five.
Last year, favorites of six points or more went just 0-2-1. In 2023, they went 1-1, though that drops to 1-3 when you include five-point spreads.
So, here, our AI model is very much going against recent Week 1 trends.
Home Teams and Road Teams on Equal Footing in A.I. Picks for NFL Week 1
Notably, our A.I. NFL picks are evenly split between home teams and road teams, with our A.I. model taking eight home squads and eight visiting teams to cover the spread in NFL Week 1.
Home teams were an impressive 9-6 ATS last year (excluding the Packers/Eagles game in São Paulo, Brazil), but an abysmal 4-12 ATS in Week 1 of 2023.
Note that the Chiefs/Chargers matchup in Week 1 of this season will also take place in São Paulo.
Sign Up for SBD’s Newsletter Now
Did you want the latest sports betting news, analysis, picks, betting trends, and relevant data straight to your inbox? If so, you’ll want to subscribe to SBD’s newsletter now!
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
