A.I. NFL Picks for Week 4 – ATS and O/U Predictions

• Our A.I. has generated its best ATS and O/U picks for every NFL Week 4 game
• The model is an atrocious 19-27 O/U, so it might be time to fade
• See the A.I. NFL picks for Week 4’s 16-game slate

Just one game remains in Week 3 and our A.I. model is struggling. It’s gone just 20-27 on ATS picks to date, and an ugly 18-29 O/U through Week 3’s Sunday games. As someone who’s been tailing its picks so far, I’m reversing course this week – at least on the O/U side of things – and fading all of its picks this week. I do expect it to get better as it collects more data from the early weeks of the season, but it might be relying on some flawed assumptions at this point.

In the table below, I have set out our A.I. NFL picks for Week 4, including its ATS and O/U pick for all 16 games.

A.I. NFL Picks for Week 4

Just like in each of the first three weeks of the season, the A.I. picks lean heavily towards unders: 12 of 16 O/U picks in Week 4 are under bets. While the A.I. is an ugly 18-29 O/U as mentioned, it’s been far worse on its rare over picks (2-9) than its plethora of under bets (16-20).

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• AI ATS Record: 20-27
• AI O/U Record: 18-29
• AI Player Props Record: 16-15

A.I. NFL Over Bets to Fade in Week 4?

Our A.I. NFL picks have been awful at picking overs, hitting on just two of the 11 over bets its made so far. It only has four over bets in Week 4, but three of those are the highest totals on the board (a trio of games had a total of 48.5 O/U in the opening NFL Week 4 odds:

• Colts vs Rams: Over 48.5
• Ravens vs Chiefs: Over 48.5
• Packers vs Cowboys: Over 48.5

The fourth over bet from our Week 4 A.I. picks is Eagles vs Buccaneers: Over 45.5. That number opened at 46.5 and has already been pushed down a point by sharp money. Both teams are 1-2 O/U through three weeks.

A.I. NFL Picks Struggling With Underdogs

Another area where our A.I. NFL picks have been struggling mightily is with underdogs. The A.I. picks through three weeks have included 19 underdogs to cover the spread, and only five of those have hit. That means the A.I. is actually over .500 picking favorites to cover (15-13).

Its Week 4 underdog picks are:

• Seahawks +1.5 (at Cardinals)
• Steelers +2.5 (vs Vikings in Dublin)
• Buccaneers +2.5 (vs Eagles)
• Jaguars +4.5 (vs 49ers)
• Colts +4.5 (vs Rams)
• Jets +2.5 (vs Dolphins)
• Bengals +7.5 (vs Broncos)