A.I. NFL Player Prop Picks for Week 3 – Best NFL Prop Bets from Model That’s 9-7

• Our A.I. model is 9-7 on NFL player-prop picks for the season
• The model is targeting a +290 anytime touchdown bet in its Week 3 player-prop picks
• See our A.I. NFL player prop bets for Week 3

With the Week 2 results fed into the data, I have used Sportradar’s A.I. model to generate the top player-prop picks for every Week 3 NFL game.

I have set out the Week 3 A.I. prop picks in the table below. I have also included the sportsbook currently offering the best price for each prop, though that is subject to change over the course of the week.

A.I. NFL Player Prop Picks (Week 3)

The model went 9-7 in Week 2 for a +0.78 unit profit. It was not used in Week 1. Below, I have set out the A.I.’s reasoning for each of the props listed in the table (in the same order).

Dolphins vs Bills Prop Pick: James Cook Over 62.5 Rushing Yards

A.I. reasoning: “Cook’s strong individual average, combined with the Dolphins’ struggling run defense and the Bills’ probable game plan to exploit that weakness, makes the over on his rushing yards a compelling bet.”

Packers vs Browns Prop Pick: Jordan Love Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

A.I. reasoning: “[Love] is facing a Cleveland Browns defense that has already allowed five passing touchdowns in two games, indicating a vulnerability in their pass defense. …The prop is [more] heavily juiced to the over [at other sportsbooks].” Editor’s note: It’s as short as -150 at DraftKings.

Colts vs Titans Prop Pick: Jonathan Taylor Anytime TD

A.I. reasoning: “[Taylor] has been a dominant force in the Colts’ high-powered offense, averaging 161.5 rushing yards per game on a healthy 4.5 yards per carry. This week, he faces a Tennessee Titans run defense that has been gashed for 150 yards per game, creating a highly favorable matchup for Taylor to exploit. Given the Colts’ efficiency in the red zone and their offensive philosophy, Taylor is a prime candidate to find the end zone against a struggling Titans defense.”

Bengals vs Vikings Prop Pick: Ja’Marr Chase Anytime TD

A.I. reasoning:  “Chase is a premier deep threat facing a Vikings secondary that hasn’t been heavily tested and is vulnerable to big plays. With the Bengals’ offense looking to exploit mismatches and their overall strong form, Chase is well-positioned to find the end zone.” 

Steelers vs Patriots Prop Pick: Drake Maye Anytime TD

A.I. reasoning: “While primarily a passer, Maye has already demonstrated his rushing ability by scoring a touchdown on the ground this season. With 14 rushing attempts for 42 yards in just two games, and a longest rush of 13 yards, he’s shown a willingness to use his legs, especially in critical situations near the goal line. Against a Steelers defense that has been vulnerable against the run, Maye could find opportunities to scramble for a score, making these odds particularly attractive for a player who is not typically considered a rushing threat.”

Rams vs Eagles Prop Pick: Jalen Hurts Under 1.5 Passing TDs

A.I. reasoning: “Jalen Hurts has not thrown a single touchdown pass this season, with the Eagles heavily favoring their potent ground game in the red zone. This trend aligns perfectly with the current line, and the Rams’ strong pass rush will likely further limit Hurts’ opportunities to connect for scores through the air, reinforcing the expectation for him to stay under this total.”

Jets vs Buccaneers Prop Pick: Breece Hall Anytime Touchdown

A.I. reasoning: “The Jets’ offensive strategy heavily favors the run, making Breece Hall a prime candidate for a touchdown. He is the focal point of their ground game, and even against a solid Buccaneers run defense, the sheer volume of his touches and the Jets’ commitment to establishing the run game in what they hope will be a close contest increases his scoring opportunities. His +100 odds offer excellent value for a player so central to his team’s scoring efforts.”

Raiders vs Commanders Prop Pick: Geno Smith Under 220.5 Passing Yards

A.I. reasoning: “Smith failed to surpass this yardage total in his last start, posting a dismal 66.0 passer rating with a 1-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio through two games. He faces a formidable Washington defense that allows a mere 52.9% completion rate and has generated 12 QB hits. Given the Raiders’ anemic ground game and overall offensive ineptitude, Smith is likely to be under constant pressure, further limiting his passing opportunities and effectiveness against a tough defense.”

Panthers vs Falcons Prop Pick: Bijan Robinson Over 22.5 Receiving Yards

A.I. reasoning: “Bijan Robinson is set for a productive outing against a vulnerable Panthers run defense. … Robinson gashed the Panthers in their last encounter and is the “focal point of Atlanta’s offense. This pick is further supported by the Panthers’ porous defense… Given Atlanta’s methodical, run-heavy attack and Michael Penix Jr managing the game effectively, Robinson is expected to be heavily involved in both the running and passing game.”

Texans vs Jaguars Prop Pick: Travis Etienne Jr Anytime TD

A.I. reasoning: “The choice of Travis Etienne Jr. for an Anytime Touchdown prop is rooted in several compelling factors. The Jaguars boast a potent rushing attack, averaging 169.5 yards per game at a robust 5.7 yards per carry, with Etienne serving as the undisputed lead back and primary red-zone threat. They face a Texans run defense that has been notably vulnerable, surrendering 120.5 rushing yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry. Given Houston’s struggles against the run and Jacksonville’s commitment to establishing the ground game, Etienne is in an excellent position to find the end zone.”

Broncos vs Chargers Prop Pick: Bo Nix Under 205.5 Passing Yards

A.I. reasoning: “Bo Nix has yet to surpass 210 passing yards in a game, making the under on his yardage a strong consideration, especially against a defense that limits big plays.”

Saints vs Seahawks Prop Pick: Alvin Kamara Over 24.5 Receiving Yards

A.I. reasoning: “Given Rattler’s cautious approach and Kamara’s proven ability as a pass-catcher, he is likely to be a frequent target for short to intermediate passes, making the over 30.5 receiving yards a favorable bet.”

Cowboys vs Bears Prop Pick: CeeDee Lamb Over 83.5 Receiving Yards

A.I. reasoning: “One of the most compelling player props in this matchup is CeeDee Lamb to exceed 82.5 receiving yards. Lamb is the undisputed top target in the Cowboys’ potent air-raid offense, and he faces a Bears secondary that has proven highly vulnerable to opposing pass catchers. Chicago is giving up a staggering 136.9 opposing QB rating and a 75% completion rate, indicating a defense ripe for exploitation through the air. With Dak Prescott leading an efficient passing attack, Lamb is in an excellent position to command a high target share and capitalize on the Bears’ defensive weaknesses, making the over a strong play.”

Cardinals vs 49ers Prop Pick: Trey McBride Anytime TD

A.I. reasoning: “Trey McBride stands out as the top prop bet due to his consistent target share and red-zone usage with Kyler Murray. His ability to create mismatches against linebackers and safeties, coupled with Murray’s trust in him, makes his Anytime TD Scorer odds of +160 particularly appealing. Against a 49ers defense that, despite its strengths, has shown some vulnerability in the passing game, McBride is well-positioned to capitalize on scoring opportunities.”

Chiefs vs Giants Prop Pick: Russell Wilson Under 1.5 Passing TDs

A.I. reasoning: “Russell Wilson’s prop bet for under 1.5 passing touchdowns is favorable due to the Giants’ significant struggles in the red zone, converting only 14.286% of their opportunities into scores, and his season average sitting exactly at 1.5 passing touchdowns per game, suggesting a coin-flip scenario that leans towards the under given their offensive inefficiencies.