Antonio Brown Once Again the Favorite to Lead NFL in Receiving Yards in 2018

• Sportsbooks like Antonio Brown’s odds of leading the NFL in receiving yards in 2018
• Will Odell Beckham Jr. bounce back after last year’s disappointing campaign? 
• Can Larry Fitzgerald continue to dodge Father Time?

As the NFL season inches it’s way towards us (43 days to be exact), football fans can’t help but fantasize about potential outcomes for the season. A common topic, debated amongst many experts and analysts: who will lead the league in receiving yards?

I’ll tell you who has the best odds, pre-season.

Sportsbooks have released odds for the lead in NFL passing, rushing and receiving yards for the 2018 season. We’re covering receiving yards in today’s post, but you can also read Mike Barrett’s article on rushing leaders or Matt McEwan’s scoop on passing leaders elsewhere on our website.

Based on the odds, the top five candidates to lead the league in receiving yards, in order, are:

1. Antonio Brown (36.36%)
2. Julio Jones (23.53%)
3. DeAndre Hopkins (10.53%)
4. Keenan Allen (9.09%)
5. Odell Beckham Jr (9.09%)

The above numbers are representative of implied odds.

While it’s not shocking to see Antonio Brown at the top of the list again (101 receptions for 1,533 yards and 9 TD in 2017), he might not be a lock to lead the league in receiving yards again in 2018.

Odds to Lead the NFL in Receiving Yards in 2018

Odds to Lead the NFL in Receiving Yards in 2018

Odds to Lead the NFL in Receiving Yards in 2018

Although he only played four games last season (after being sidelined with a season-ending ankle injury), don’t forget about Giants WR Odell Beckham Jr.

2018 NFL Rushing Title Betting Tips

Is Antonio Brown a Lock to Repeat as The Leading Receiver?

A lock? No. Nothing is guaranteed in Football. Just ask anyone who bet on David Johnson or Odell Beckham Jr last year… Still too soon?

Antonio Brown has recorded 1,200+ receiving yards for the past five seasons and won the receiving title twice.

Antonio Brown is a target monster and reliable target for Ben Roethlisberger. AB has recorded 1,200+ receiving yards for the past five seasons and won the receiving title twice. In 2015, Brown lost the race to Julio Jones after recording a career-high 1,834 yards and 10 touchdowns.

So why am I down on AB for the receiving title? Brown has more competition than ever this season in his own offense.

Rookie breakout star Juju Smith-Schuster looks for an increased role in the Steelers’ offense in 2018, after 917 yards and seven touchdowns in his rookie campaign. Incoming rookie James Washington is bringing lots of hype with him to training camp in Pittsburgh. Mike Tomlin stated he was “impressed with his physical conditioning” and would see increased reps as a result.

The Popular Dialogue Leads You Astray

In most odds sites, you’ll see Julio Jones with the second best odds to win the receiving title. As Jones only lost the race to Brown last year by about 100 yards, he continues to play in a run-first offense that he’s admittedly frustrated with.

For the value, I’m more inclined to slap some money down on Odell Beckham Jr or Keenan Allen at +1000. At 10-1 odds, I’m comfortable taking a shot on two guys who have been historically targeted in the 160-170 range, good enough for top five in the league. Take advantage of the value here, even if it isn’t much.

Players to Avoid in 2018

Yes, I’m on the Adam Thielen bust train, too.

There’s no disputing Thielen had a marvelous season in 2017: 91 receptions for 1,276 yards and 4 touchdowns. He’s clearly talented, but a lot has changed since last season

A.J. Green > Michael Thomas?
Adam Thielen…BUST?

Ranking the top 25 WRs of 2018 » https://t.co/HZRBnfQnDG pic.twitter.com/vC54lt4SSi

— Ben Schragger (@BenSchragg) May 17, 2018

Insert NEW franchise Quarterback, Kirk Cousins. Captain Kirk is a passing machine, I know. At this point, it must feel like my argument is running in circles but I’ll get there. Plain and simple, Cousins likes to spread the ball around. In his time as a starting QB, Cousins has never targeted a receiver more than seven times a game. Extrapolating that over a full season and Thielen gets almost 40 targets less than last season, assuming he’s Cousin’s primary option.

In his time as a starting QB, Kirk Cousins has never targeted a receiver more than seven times a game.

The Vikings lost OC Pat Shurmer to the New York Giants, and thus hired John DeFilippo from the Philadelphia Eagles.“The best red zone teams do two things,” DeFilippo said. “No. 1, they run the football. They have success running the football.” With Dalvin Cook healthy for the coming season his philosophy has ground to stand on.

Long Shots

At +5500, Larry Fitzgerald is a great bet if you want a sleeper. Fitz has been dodging Father Time for about four seasons now and shows no real signs of slowing. He’s the clear number one option in the Arizona offense and gets it done year-after-year, despite unfamiliar quarterback play.

Also at +5500, Tyreek “The Freak” Hill is another guy I’d be happy slotting in as a dark horse bet. Hill has shown he can flash; top notch speed and big play-ability are green lights for this bet. Kansas City’s offense this year should be locked an loaded with former rushing leader Kareem Hunt, Superstar TE Travis Kelce, and the acquisition of flyer Sammy Watkins on the outside. The chains will move, and there’s tons to go around if new QB Patrick Mahomes can make it happen.