NFL Christmas Day Anytime Touchdown Scorer Odds: Cowboys-Commanders, Lions-Vikings, and Broncos-Chiefs Prop Betting Guide

The NFL’s Christmas Day triple-header (DAL vs WSH at 1:00 pm ET, DET vs MIN at 4:30 pm ET, and DEN vs KC at 8:15 pm ET) offers a slew of anytime-touchdown props, including a few of the league’s most-prolific scorers in action against vulnerable defenses.

The Lions’ dynamic backfield duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery will test a Minnesota defense that has shown inconsistencies in red-zone coverage. Meanwhile, the Cowboys/Commanders clash features two of the league’s worst defensive units, creating ideal conditions to bet anytime-touchdown props. Conversely, the primetime Denver Broncos-Kansas City Chiefs game projects more as a defensive slugfest where identifying touchdown scorers becomes significantly more challenging.

Below, I set out key statistics and touchdown streaks before identifying my three favorite anytime TD picks for Christmas (one TD scorer from each game).

Take me straight to the picks!

NFL’s Leading Touchdown Producers Enter Christmas Week

As we approach the Christmas Day slate, examining the league’s most consistent touchdown producers provides crucial context for evaluating holiday prop betting opportunities. While several elite scorers won’t be in action, the players who are participating include some of the season’s most reliable end zone threats.

Here are the top 10 touchdown leaders entering Christmas week:

1. Jonathan Taylor (IND) [19]
2. Jahmyr Gibbs* (DET) [17]
3. Christian McCaffrey (SF) [16]
4. Josh Jacobs (GB) [14]
5. James Cook III (BUF) [14]
6. Kyren Williams (LAR) [13]
7. Travis Etienne Jr. (JAX) [13]
8. Derrick Henry (BAL) [12]
9. De’Von Achane (MIA) [12]
10. Javonte Williams* (DAL) [12]

*Playing on Christmas Day

Jahmyr Gibbs emerges as the premier Christmas Day threat, ranking second league-wide with 17 combined touchdowns (13 rushing, 4 receiving). His dual-threat capability makes him a constant red zone weapon who can score through multiple avenues. Detroit’s backfield depth is further enhanced by David Montgomery, who has contributed 8 touchdowns of his own, forming one of the NFL’s most formidable goal-line tandems. Javonte Williams also commands attention, tied for ninth overall with 12 scores despite Dallas’s inconsistent offensive performances.

Consistency often matters more than raw totals for prop betting purposes. Here are the players with the highest touchdown-per-game averages this season:

1. Jonathan Taylor (IND) [1.27 TDs per game]
2. Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) [1.13 TDs per game]
3. Christian McCaffrey (SF) [1.07 TDs per game]
4. Josh Jacobs (GB) [0.93 TDs per game]
5. James Cook III (BUF) [0.93 TDs per game]
6. Cam Skattebo (NYG) [0.88 TDs per game]
7. Kyren Williams (LAR) [0.87 TDs per game]
8. Travis Etienne Jr. (JAX) [0.87 TDs per game]
9. Derrick Henry (BAL) [0.80 TDs per game]
10. Javonte Williams (DAL) [0.67 TDs per game]

The following table details Christmas Day players’ matchups and corresponding anytime-touchdown odds from DraftKings Sportsbook:

Two matchups immediately stand out as prime TD-scoring environments. Washington’s running backs face a Cowboys defense surrendering 30.27 points per game (31st), while Javonte Williams gets an equally favorable spot against a Commanders unit allowing 26.93 points per contest (27th). This sets up potential for multiple ground scores in what should develop into a high-scoring NFC East battle.

Anytime-Touchdown Hot Streaks

Beyond season-long production, identifying players currently riding touchdown streaks can uncover valuable betting opportunities. Players who have found the end zone consistently in recent weeks often carry that momentum forward, particularly when facing favorable defensive matchups.

Javonte Williams has been Dallas’s most reliable red zone threat, averaging 0.80 touchdowns per game while facing a Christmas opponent that ranks among the league’s most generous defenses. His -185 odds reflect both his consistent production and the favorable matchup against Washington’s 27th-ranked scoring defense. Williams is a prime target in what projects as a high-scoring affair.

Jahmyr Gibbs enters Christmas Day as the slate’s most consistent scorer, averaging 1.13 touchdowns per game with his league-leading 17 total scores among active players. While Minnesota’s defense presents a stiffer challenge than some opponents (11th in points allowed), Gibbs’s versatility as both a runner and receiver creates multiple scoring pathways. His -210 odds are steep but justified given his remarkable consistency and ability to produce against varying defensive schemes.

The Lions’ power complement, David Montgomery, offers compelling value at +130 odds. His 8 touchdowns this season demonstrate goal-line effectiveness, and Detroit’s tendency to utilize both backs in short-yardage situations creates opportunity for Montgomery to vulture scores even when Gibbs handles primary duties.

Conversely, several players face significant challenges extending any recent success. RJ Harvey must contend with Kansas City’s fourth-ranked scoring defense (19.60 PPG allowed), making his -115 odds appear optimistic given the matchup difficulty. Similarly, Kansas City’s backfield duo of Isiah Pacheco (+400) and Kareem Hunt (+550) faces Denver’s fifth-ranked defense (19.67 PPG allowed), suggesting their longer odds may accurately reflect the challenging scoring environment.

Targeting Christmas Day’s Most Vulnerable Defenses

Identifying defenses that consistently allow opponents to reach the end zone remains paramount for touchdown prop success. The Christmas slate features an ideal scenario for prop bettors, as two of the league’s most generous defensive units clash in the Cowboys-Commanders matchup.

Here are the five NFL defenses allowing the most points per game this season:

1. Cincinnati Bengals [30.53]
2. Dallas Cowboys* [30.27]
3. New York Jets [28.40]
4. Arizona Cardinals [27.60]
5. New York Giants [27.47]

*Playing on Christmas Day

The Dallas Cowboys defense stands as the slate’s most exploitable unit, ranking 31st by surrendering 30.27 points per game. Their recent 34-17 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers exemplified ongoing defensive breakdowns, as they allowed four touchdowns while failing to generate consistent pressure or coverage. This vulnerability creates exceptional opportunities for Washington’s offensive weapons.

Washington Commanders defense isn’t far behind, ranking 27th while allowing 26.93 points per contest. Their recent 29-18 defeat to the Philadelphia Eagles saw them surrender four touchdowns, continuing a pattern of defensive struggles that have plagued the unit throughout the season. This mutual defensive inadequacy suggests both teams’ offensive players should find scoring opportunities.

The Cowboys-Commanders clash presents a perfect storm for touchdown props. Washington’s backfield contributors Chris Rodriguez Jr. (+115) and Jacory Croskey-Merritt (+185) face a Cowboys defense that has been consistently exploited on the ground. Meanwhile, Cowboys receivers CeeDee Lamb (+105) and George Pickens (+125) should find success against a Commanders secondary that allows 8.26 yards per pass attempt.

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks for Christmas Day

Pick #1: Javonte Williams (-165) at BetMGM

Pick #2: David Montgomery (+150) at Fanatics

Pick #3: RJ Harvey (+100) at Fanatics

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