Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers Predictions, Picks and Betting Lines for Sunday Night Football

• The 49ers are 2.5-point favorites over the Falcons on Sunday Night Football
• Brock Purdy (toe) will sit again, paving the way for Mac Jones to make his fifth start of the season
• See my Atlanta Falcons vs San Francisco 49ers prediction and pick, plus the latest betting lines for Sunday Night Football

Fresh off upsetting the Buffalo Bills, the Atlanta Falcons (3-2, 1-1 away) travel to San Francisco looking for another outright win as an underdog. Online sportsbooks are siding with the hometown 49ers (4-2, 1-1) in the latest SNF odds, but I’d be hesitant to back the Niners given the injuries they’re dealing with.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 pm ET from Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA, with NBC providing the broadcast coverage.

Falcons vs 49ers Prediction

My Falcons vs 49ers prediction is banking on Atlanta covering for the fourth time this season as an underdog. The advanced metrics love this team defensively, and San Francisco’s injuries are simply too grave to overcome.

Let’s start on the offensive side of the ball for San Fran. Brock Purdy will sit again with a toe injury, paving the way for Mac Jones to make his fifth start. Jones is averaging the most passing yards per game of any QB this season (312), but this Falcons defense will be the toughest he’s faced.

The Niners will get All-Pro tight end George Kittle back in the lineup Sunday, but the pass-catching situation is still bleak. San Fran is still without their top-two wideouts, Brandon Aiyuk and Ricky Pearsall, while Jauan Jennings is trying to play through multiple injuries.

The biggest loss the 49ers are dealing with, however, is on the defensive side of the ball. Fred Warner is done for the season due to an ankle injury, and there’s no way to replace their most talented defender. Warner was PFF’s highest graded linebacker prior to his injury, and it comes just a few weeks after the Niners lost their top edge rusher Nick Bosa for the year.

With the defense in shambles, I predict plenty of success for the Atlanta offense. The Falcons are loaded with talent, led by Bijan Robinson and Drake London. The duo combined to lead the Falcons past the Super Bowl odds favorite Bills last week, accounting for 396 yards and 2 TD.

Robinson leads the NFL in yards per scrimmage, while London is top-10 in receptions and targets. QB Michael Penix has been inconsistent in his first full season as a starter, but he was efficient last week and shouldn’t have to deal with a ton of pressure.

The 49ers defense owns the league’s second-lowest pressure rate (10%) and Penix’s completion rate is 22% higher from a clean pocket, while his yards per attempt are 3 yards higher compared to when he’s under duress.

Falcons vs 49ers Pick

Given the San Fran injury situation, I’d still be looking to back Atlanta as a ‘dog in my Falcons vs 49ers picks regardless of how their defense was playing. The fact Atlanta’s defense is a wrecking ball makes betting on the Falcons a no brainer.

Atlanta leads the NFL in yards allowed per game, and ranks fourth in expected points added against the pass. They completely stymied Josh Allen and the Buffalo attack last week, sacking him four times and forcing two turnovers. The Falcons are number one in blitz rate and second in sack percentage, and Jones isn’t shy about putting the ball up for grabs.

Atlanta Falcons Defensive Stats

Dating back to his last full season as a starter, Jones has 12 more turnover worthy plays than big-time throws. He’s 18th this season in EPA per drop back and is fresh off absorbing six sacks in a loss versus Tampa Bay. He’s likely going to be under duress all night given the strength of the Falcons pass rush, and due to the fact that three of his starting o-linemen have a sub-55.0 pass blocking grade.

ATL Falcons vs SF 49ers Betting Lines

Before making any Sunday Night Football wager, be sure to consult the best football betting apps. We can still get +2.5 on the Falcons at BetMGM as of Saturday night, but plenty of other books have shortened the spread to Atlanta +1.5. The Falcons are +115 to pull off the upset, while the total sits at 47.5.

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Odds as of Oct. 18 at BetMGM. New customers can claim the BetMGM promo code and get a bonus to bet on SNF.

According to the NFL public betting percentages, this game opened San Fran -3, but the line has been moving towards the Falcons throughout the week. Atlanta is garnering 74% of the spread wagers and 87% of the handle so far, as public and sharp bettors alike are looking to buy the Falcons in this spot.