Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings Prediction, Pick & Odds for Sunday Night Football

• The Minnesota Vikings are 3.5-point home favorites over the Atlanta Falcons for Sunday Night Football Week 2
• The line dropped from Minnesota -4.5 as sharp money backed Atlanta early in the week
• Keep reading for my Falcons vs Vikings prediction, pick and odds for Sunday Night Football

Sunday Night Football features a battle of rookie quarterbacks as J.J. McCarthy welcomes Michael Penix Jr. to U.S. Bank Stadium. Both showed flashes in Week 1, with McCarthy orchestrating a fourth-quarter comeback and Penix throwing for 289 yards in a narrow loss.

Minnesota enters after their 27-24 win over Chicago, where McCarthy overcame early struggles to throw two touchdowns and rush for another. Penix completed 27 of 42 passes without a turnover against Tampa Bay. Now these two first-year starters face off with the whole country watching.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 PM ET at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN, with NBC providing the broadcast coverage.

Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings Odds

Odds as of September 14, 2025 at BetMGM Sportsbook. Find the best lines and explore alternate spreads with a BetMGM promo code.

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The spread tightened from the opener. Minnesota was laying 4.5 points early, but sharp action on Atlanta pushed it to Vikings -3.5. That’s big movement for a primetime game, especially with Minnesota’s home dominance.

The Vikings have won their last five games as home favorites and are 8-1 ATS in their last nine at U.S. Bank Stadium.

Current Sunday Night Football odds give Minnesota a 64.5% implied probability of winning. The total dipped from 45.5 to 45, which implies we may see more of a defensive battle between two young quarterbacks.

Falcons vs Vikings Prediction for Sunday Night Football

Minnesota’s injury report is ugly. They’re missing Andrew Van Ginkel and Blake Cashman, while center Ryan Kelly didn’t practice all week. Christian Darrisaw is still working back. That’s a lot of bodies for a team on short rest after Monday night.

But Michael Penix Jr. on the road hasn’t worked yet. He’s made one road start in his NFL career, posting a 71.5 passer rating at Washington. Three of his four career starts came at home in Atlanta. Now he faces Brian Flores’ defense in one of the league’s loudest venues.

Atlanta couldn’t run in Week 1, managing 69 yards at 2.5 yards per carry. Minnesota allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game last season (93.4). Bijan Robinson managed 143 yards and a touchdown in two previous meetings with Minnesota, but this Vikings front is different.

The Vikings control both lines of scrimmage. Their offensive line posted a top-five pass-block win rate in Week 1. Atlanta managed one sack in their opener, and if Arnold Ebiketie can’t go, McCarthy will have time to find Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson.

Sunday Night Football Key Stats

McCarthy struggled early but found rhythm when it mattered. He completed 65% of his passes and stayed composed in the fourth quarter. The kid has that clutch gene. Playing at home should help after that road comeback.

Jessie Bates III is questionable for Atlanta. Without their best safety, the Falcons become vulnerable to big plays. Jefferson has dominated Atlanta, recording 16 catches for nearly 300 yards and four touchdowns in two meetings. Even with A.J. Terrell shadowing him, Jefferson produces.

The trends are lopsided. Atlanta is 0-6 ATS in their last six as underdogs and 1-8 ATS overall. Minnesota is 9-1 straight up in their last 10 as favorites. Head-to-head, the Vikings dominate at 4-1 both straight up and ATS in five meetings.

Kevin O’Connell kept McCarthy calm during those Chicago struggles. His steady approach works with young quarterbacks. Raheem Morris faces a different challenge with Penix, who hasn’t seen this hostile environment.

Last year, Minnesota exploded for 21 fourth-quarter points to win 42-21. The Vikings close games at home. They’re 13-4 in primetime since 2022, best in the NFL.

With the line at 3.5, I’m buying down. Games land on 3 about 10% of the time – it’s the most important number in football. BetMGM offers Minnesota -3 at -130 through alternate spreads. That insurance is worth the juice.

Falcons vs Vikings Picks for SNF

• Minnesota Vikings -3 (-130 at BetMGM)

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The market moved from 4.5, showing sharp money likes Atlanta. On paper, these teams may just be separated by only a field goal. But Minnesota at home is a different animal. That momentum and belief after their comeback should carry over.

Yes, the Vikings have injuries. Yes, they’re on short rest. But Penix hasn’t proven he can handle this environment, and Atlanta’s inability to run makes them one-dimensional. That’s exactly what Brian Flores wants.

The public is split 50/50 for the winner according to the NFL public betting percentages. That’s rare for a primetime home favorite. When the public can’t decide, I’ll take better coaching, home field, and historical trends.

Buy the half point to 3 and back Minnesota. McCarthy should be more comfortable than in Week 1, and Minnesota’s offensive line will control this game. I predict the Vikings win by a touchdown, but I’ll take the safety of the key number.