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Baker Mayfield Favored to Throw 7.5 More Touchdown Passes than Giants Quarterbacks

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in NFL Football

Aug 23, 2019 · 2:02 PM PDT

NFL Betting
Baker Mayfield took some shots at the New York Giants this offseason. Will those come back to haunt him? Photo by Erik Drost (Wiki Commons) [CC License]
  • Baker Mayfield threw 27 touchdowns in 14 games last season.
  • Eli Manning had just 21 touchdowns in 16 games in 2018.
  • The Browns won five of their final seven games to end the 2018 season while the Giants went 4-4 in their final eight games.

Cleveland Browns franchise QB Baker Mayfield made some recent comments that many perceived as a slight toward New York Giants rookie QB Daniel Jones.

As a result of the exchange, books have posted some fun props on matching both the Giants and Browns quarterbacks head-to-head, and the teams win total head-to-head too. Let’s take a closer look at these props.

Baker Mayfield vs Giants QBs Touchdown Passes

Prop Odds
Baker Mayfield -7.5 Passing TD’s -105
New York Giants QB’s +7.5 Passing TD’s -125

*Odds taken on 8/23/19

After Mayfield’s interview with GQ, where it is somewhat unclear whether he’s taking direct shots at the Giants and Jones, or making a broader commentary on how quarterbacks are drafted, Mayfield has been listed a favorite to top the Giants quarterbacks.

It’s the latest engagement between the two franchises, who have have been linked all offseason. The Giants traded star wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. to the Cleveland Browns as well as last year’s sack leader Olivier Vernon.

These two teams will be measured up against each other for not only the trade but the war of words between the two as well.

Passing Comparison

Baker Mayfield
New York Giants QBs
27 2018 Touchdown Passes 21
1.9 2018 Touchdown Passes Per Game 1.3
5 2019 Games vs Opponents In Top 10 for PASS TDs allowed last season 8
6 2019 Games vs Opponents In Bottom 10 for PASS TDs allowed last season 3

Mayfield Favored Over Giants Quarterbacks

At this point, we’re not entirely sure who’ll be the Giants primary quarterback this season. Eli Manning is very likely to open the season as the starter and hold the job if he plays well, but Jones has been tearing it up in preseason action and could get some reps under center. That’s why the prop includes all Giants QB’s.

Mayfield had 27 touchdowns in somewhat limited action with the Browns last season as he had 486 pass attempts in 14 games. For comparison, Manning had 576 attempts last year.

I expect Mayfield to be in the 30+ range this season and I’m not sure Manning and Jones throw enough touchdowns to cover the +7.5 spread.

To start, the Giants are more ground-game oriented as they plan to run the ball a lot with Saquon Barkley. They also have fewer passing weapons with Golden Tate suspended the first four games and Sterling Sheppard nursing an injury.

Remember, they traded away Beckham Jr. to the Browns, so Cleveland’s passing game should be much improved. Meanwhile, the Giants offense is heading in a different direction as they want to be more conservative and pound the rock. Bet Mayfield with this prop.

Browns vs Giants Win Total Head-to-Head

Prop Odds
Cleveland Browns -3.5 Wins -115
New York Giants +3.5 Wins -115

Will Browns Win Four More Games Than Giants?

A lot of people are high on the Browns but you have to really think it through if you’re laying 3.5 wins on a regular season win total.

The question is how good will the Giants be? Remember, this team got it together by the end of the season and finished 4-4. Are they improved to the point where they can push for or maintain a .500 record on the season? If so, the Browns might need 11 or 12 wins to cover.

While I don’t think the Giants are necessarily an 8-8 team, I do see them in the range just below hovering around six or seven wins.

They should be more competent this year than they were last year. Remember, they were beset by a slew of injuries. The offensive line is better and Barkley, Shepard and tight end Evan Engram are a year older.

As for the Browns, they’re a good team but I’m not drinking the Kool-Aid as much as everyone else. They’re in a tough division with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens, and they haven’t had a winning season since 2007. I’m not sure they get to 10 wins, so I would bet the Giants plus the +3.5 wins to cover here.

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