Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction, Trends and Betting lines for SNF

• The Ravens are 3.5-point favorites over the Steelers on Sunday Night Football
• The winner will claim the AFC North crown and a playoff berth
• See my Ravens vs Steelers prediction below, plus the key trends and latest betting lines for SNF

The AFC North is up for grabs on Sunday Night Football when the Ravens (8-8, 5-2 away) visit the Steelers (9-7, 5-3 home). These long time rivals will be facing off for the sixth time since the start of 2024, with Pittsburgh holding a 3-2 edge.

Despite the head-to-head success, online sportsbooks are bearish on the Steelers. They’ve pegged Baltimore as 3.5-point road favorites per the latest SNF odds, in a game where the total is currently in a free fall.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 pm ET from Acrisure Stadium, in Pittsburgh, PA, with NBC providing the broadcast coverage.

Here is my Ravens vs Steelers prediction, along with the key trends and latest betting lines for SNF.

Ravens vs Steelers Prediction

The total for this rivalry clash opened at 43.5, but has been bet down to anywhere from 40.5 to 41 depending on where you wager. Each of the last three meetings between these two teams have exceeded 41 points, but I don’t expect this one to.

Let’s start with the Ravens offense. Yes, they’re getting Lamar Jackson back, but he looks nothing like the two-time champion in the NFL MVP odds. Since returning from his hamstring injury, Lamar has been on the least successful QB’s in the league. He ranks 25th among qualified candidates in EPA/play since Week 10, and 30th in completion percentage over expectation.

Lamar Jackson Since Week 10

His team has scored 24 or fewer points in each of his last six starts, and he’s thrown more interceptions (5) than touchdowns (4) during that stretch. Jackson sat out Baltimore’s must win game last week versus Green Bay, and watched the Ravens put up a season-high 42 points.

Derrick Henry was the catalyst of that offensive explosion, but the Steelers are well positioned to slow him down. They’ll have run stuffer Derrick Harmon on the field on Sunday night, after he sat out the first meeting with the Ravens. Pittsburgh surrenders 80 less rushing yards per game with Harmon on the field, and were out rushed by 183 yards last time out versus Baltimore.

Also working in favor of the Steelers defense is the return of T.J. Watt. The All-Pro pass rusher has sat out three straight games with a collapsed lung, and has 7.5 career sacks versus Jackson.

On the other side of the ball, the Pittsburgh offense is a mess. The Steelers mustered only 6 points last week in Cleveland, and are down DK Metcalf and Darnell Washington, two of their most important offensive pieces.

Metcalf’s absence is especially significant, because it leaves Rodgers with few reliable wideout options. Pittsburgh’s wide receiver room will feature Calvin Austin, Adam Thielen, Scotty Miller and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, which has got to be the worst collection of receivers in the league.

Baltimore’s defense is vulnerable versus the pass, but without Metcalf as a deep threat, Rodgers will likely struggle badly in what could be his last NFL start. Rodgers has completed only 29.7% of his 20+ yard throws this season, and has been terrible versus man coverage. The Ravens play man at the league’s seventh highest rate, while Rodgers has posted a dismal 50.8% completion percentage, and the 12th lowest yards per attempt versus that scheme this season.

This game is going to be a rock fight. I actually think the Ravens will win comfortably in a low-scoring affair, but I’m hesitant to bet them against the spread based on some pretty incredible trends.

Ravens vs Steelers Trends

10 of the last 12 meetings between Baltimore and Pittsburgh have been decided by one score. Underdogs in John Harbaugh versus Mike Tomlin matchups are 25-7-3 against the spread, and 20-3-3 ATS when the line is +3 or higher.

Since Week 5, the Steelers in the Tomlin era are covering at a 68% clip as ‘dogs, and are 19-6-1 against the spread as home underdogs of 7 points or less.

BAL Ravens vs PIT Steelers Betting Lines

Before making any Sunday Night Football wager, be sure to consult the best football betting apps. The best place to bet the under is at Fanatics, who are posting a total of 41. That number is key when it comes to over/under betting so make sure you shop for that line.

As for the spread, it’s painted 3.5 across the industry, but if you want a little more cushion you can get +4.5 on Pittsburgh at -126 odds at DraftKings. If you want to play the upset angle, FanDuel has the best odds in market on a Steelers victory at +176.

Odds as of Jan 3. New customers can claim the DraftKings promo code and get a bonus to bet on SNF.

Per the NFL public betting percentages, Pittsburgh +3.5 is attracting the majority of bets. That side of the spread is currently garnering 57% of the ATS tickets and 58% of the handle.