Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills Prediction, Pick & Odds for Sunday Night Football

• The Baltimore Ravens are 1.5-point road favorites over the Buffalo Bills for Sunday Night Football Week 1
• Sharp money flipped this line from Buffalo -1.5 to Baltimore -1.5 in the SNF odds
• Keep reading for my Ravens vs Bills prediction, pick and odds for Sunday Night Football

The NFL couldn’t have scripted a better Sunday Night Football opener. The Baltimore Ravens visit the Buffalo Bills in a rematch of last year’s Divisional Round thriller that ended on Mark Andrews’ dropped two-point conversion. This time, MVP rivals Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen meet with huge AFC implications following Kansas City’s opening night loss.

Baltimore comes in with revenge on their minds after that 27-25 playoff loss in this same stadium. Jackson threw for 4,172 yards and 41 touchdowns last season with an absurd 41-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio. Meanwhile, Allen claimed his first MVP trophy and looks to prove he belongs among the league’s very elite quarterbacks.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 PM ET at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY, with NBC providing the broadcast coverage.

Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills Odds

Odds as of September 7, 2025 at ESPN Sportsbook. Bet the first SNF game of the season with an ESPN Bet promo.

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This line moved more than any other in the Week 1 NFL odds. Buffalo opened as 1.5-point favorites, but sharp money flipped it to Ravens -1.5. That’s a very notable shift considering Buffalo has won 10 straight regular-season games at home and Allen is 25-3 in his last 28 home starts.

Based on these updated odds, the Ravens have 56.5% implied proability to win the opening Sunday Night Football game of the season. Meanwhile, the Bills have 47.6% implied win probability. The game total is offered at 50.5, with slight juice to the Over.

Ravens vs Bills Prediction for Sunday Night Football

Buffalo’s secondary is beat up, no doubt about it. Rookie Maxwell Hairston is on injured reserve, Tre’Davious White didn’t practice all week and is doubtful, and Christian Benford is dealing with a groin issue. The Bills might be starting backup corners against Zay Flowers and company.

But Josh Allen at home with something to prove is a different animal. The guy just won MVP, and now he’s a home underdog? Allen’s going to take that personally. He’s 4-1 ATS as a home underdog over his last five games in that spot.

Yes, Derrick Henry destroyed Buffalo last year with 199 rushing yards in Week 4. The Bills ranked 29th against the run and haven’t fixed that issue entirely. But Sean McDermott knows what’s coming. He’s had all offseason to scheme for Henry and Jackson’s designed runs.

The Ravens have their own concerns. Justin Tucker is gone after 13 seasons, replaced by rookie sixth-rounder Tyler Loop. That’s a massive change for a team that’s relied on automatic field goals for over a decade. Loop made 83.8% of his kicks at Arizona, but he’s never kicked in an NFL game, let alone on Sunday Night Football.

Sunday Night Football Key Stats

Allen’s numbers against Baltimore aren’t pretty. His 67.7 career passer rating against them is his worst against any team he’s faced three-plus times. But those games were mostly on the road or in the playoffs. This is different. This is Highmark Stadium in September with 70,000 fans going nuts.

The Bills didn’t upgrade their receiving corps much, adding only Josh Palmer, who managed 584 yards with the Chargers. Khalil Shakir dealt with a high ankle sprain throughout camp. But Allen doesn’t need elite weapons to beat you. He’ll use James Cook out of the backfield and scramble for first downs himself.

Weather could be a factor with 12-15 mph winds expected. That typically favors the underdog and the under, making field goals tougher and limiting the deep passing game.

Mark Andrews will want to make up for his playoff drop. With Isaiah Likely out, Andrews should get 8-10 targets. The Bills have had trouble covering tight ends, and their safeties, Taylor Rapp and Cole Bishop, may not be quick enough to keep up with Andrews.

Since 2022, though, Buffalo has gone 13-4 in primetime games, which is the best record in the NFL. Under McDermott, they’re 6-2 in home openers. The Bills have also won 11 straight regular-season home games. All this to say, Buffalo fans have been treated to some true dominance by their home team lately.

This game should come down to a field goal either way. The Ravens might be the better team on paper, but Week 1 on the road in primetime is a tough spot for any team. Baltimore is 11-0 when Henry rushes for 85-plus yards, but Henry is 0-3 in Orchard Park, including playoffs.

Ravens vs Bills Picks for SNF

• Buffalo Bills +1.5 (-110 at ESPN Bet)

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I get why everyone loves Baltimore on Sunday Night Football. They’ve got the deeper roster and revenge storyline, plus their defense was elite down the stretch last season. But laying points on the road in Week 1 against the reigning MVP? That’s a bet I can’t confidently get behind.

I think the betting market has overreacted a bit here. When a line moves three full points from one side to the other, you can often find value getting contrarian. The public loves Baltimore (82% of the ML handle per the NFL public betting percentages), which historically means you should tread lightly.

Batlmire enters as the Super Bowl favorites, but Week 1 always produces unexpected results. If Derrick Henry can’t get going, the Ravens could stall out in the red zone and need to rely on a rookie kicker to deliver in a super hostile setting.

I’m not passing up 1.5 points with Allen at home, especially because oddsmakers who crunch these numbers religiously initially projected Buffalo as the favorite. Give me Allen and the points in what should be another classic between these two AFC titans.