Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders Picks, Predictions, Latest Odds & Line Movement

• The Commanders are heavy favorites against the Bears in the Week 6 Monday Night Football odds
• Washington’s dominant ground game faces a Chicago run defense ranks 31st in the NFL
• See my Bears vs Commanders predictions and picks, plus the latest CHI/WSH odds and line movement for MNF

Bettors have another Monday Night Football two-pack to feat on in Week 6. After the Bills/ Falcons kickoff at 7:15 pm ET, the Chicago Bears (2-2, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U) will visit the Washington Commanders (3-2, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U) at 8:15 pm ET at Northwest Stadium in Landover, MD.

The Commanders won an 18-15 thriller at Chicago last season on a last-second Hail Mary. Oddsmakers don’t expect tonight’s matchup to be nearly as close, or nearly as low-scoring, listing the Commanders as 5.5-point favorites in the latest MNF odds with the total at 49.5 O/U.

Below, I have set out my Bears/Commanders predictions, picks, and best bets for this Monday night showdown, along with the latest Chicago/Washington odds and line movement.

Tonight’s game will be broadcast on ABC. The weather forecast calls for a cool evening, with partly cloudy skies, temperatures around 58°F, and a notable NNE wind of 13 mph, which could impact the passing and kicking games.

Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders Picks & Prediction

• ATS: Washington Commanders -5.5 (-108) at FanDuel
• Over/Under: Over 49.0 (-110) at Fanatics
• Best Prop Bet: Jayden Daniels Over 43.5 Rushing Yards (-114) at FanDuel

Beras vs Commanders features a classic strength-versus-weakness paradigm: Washington’s offensive identity is built around a physical, dominant rushing attack that ranks among the league’s best. They will face a Chicago defense that has been utterly incapable of stopping the run, ranking 31st in the NFL and allowing a disastrous 6.15 yards per carry.

This fundamental mismatch in the trenches is too significant to ignore, especially with the game being played at Northwest Stadium, where the Commanders are undefeated this season, both SU and ATS. Washington has won five straight home games dating back to last season.

Washington’s offensive line should control the line of scrimmage, allowing them to dictate the pace of the game and keep Caleb Williams and the Bears’ offense on the sideline. When Jayden Daniels does drop back to pass, he’ll be protected against a pass rush that has generated only five sacks.

There are also strong betting trends supporting a bet on Washington to cover at home: the Commanders have are a perfect 5-0 ATS during the extant five-game home win streak. The Bears, meanwhile, have lost their last four primetime games and are just 2-10 on the road in their last 12. While Chicago’s +5 turnover differential is impressive, it’s not sustainable.

The Commanders will grind out a comfortable victory by controlling the clock and exploiting Chicago’s biggest weakness. I expect Daniels to do much of the damage on the ground himself.

Looking for more MNF picks to tail? Check out:

• John Hyslop’s Bills/Falcons SGP
• Sascha Paruk’s Bills vs Falcons Player Props & Touchdown Bets

Latest Bears vs Commanders Odds & Line Movement

On the moneyline, the best price on the Commanders is currently -250 at bet365, while FanDuel has the longest odds on a Chicago upset victory at +215. After removing the vig, the moneyline odds give Washington a 69.9% implied win probability, compared to just 30.1% for the Bears.

The Bears/Commanders point spread is 5.5 across the board with only slight variations in price. The total is sitting at 49.5 and most books offer -110 odds each way, though over bettors can get -107 at Caesars, and under bettors can get -105 at DraftKings.

Odds commentary as of 1:01 pm ET. The odds in the table will update automatically with the best-available price for each market if the lines move before kickoff.

The betting line for this matchup opened with Washington favored by just 4.5 points, but has since moved a full point to -5.5. The total has remained steady at 49.5, indicating balanced action, though strong trends point towards the over for both teams.

CHI vs WSH Public Betting Splits

As of Monday afternoon, the NFL public betting data indicates heavy support for the home team. Approximately 72% of spread bets and 78% of the money are on the Commanders to cover the -5.5 points.

The moneyline shows a similar trend, with 85% of the cash backing Washington.

The total is more divided, with 55% of bets on the over 49.5, but 61% of the money on the under, suggesting some sharp action is anticipating a lower-scoring affair, possibly due to the windy conditions.

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