Bengals vs Broncos Prediction & Closing Lines

• The Broncos are 7.5-point favorites over the Bengals tonight
• Bo Nix has the worst PFF grade among all starting quarterbacks
• See below for my Bengals vs Broncos prediction, and the CIN vs DEN closing lines

The second game of tonight’s Monday Night Football doubleheader goes down in Mile High, as the Broncos (1-2, 1-0 home) host the Bengals (2-1, 1-1 away). Online sportsbooks are siding with Denver in the NFL odds, but I’m targeting the total instead for my Bengals vs Broncos prediction.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm ET from Empower Field at Mile High, in Denver, CO, with ABC providing the broadcast coverage.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Denver Broncos Prediction

• Under 44.5 (-110 at Bet365)

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Entering the week, both of these offenses have been among the worst in the NFL. Let’s start with Cincinnati. They rank bottom-two in yards per play and EPA, and have managed only 10 plays of 15+ yards all season.

Jake Browning has been a turnover machine since taking the starting reigns, throwing a league-high 5 interceptions in less than two games. Cincy committed five turnovers in their blowout loss to Minnesota last week, managing just 171 yards of total offense.

Denver meanwhile, hasn’t looked much better with the ball in their hands. The Broncos are 31st in offensive success rate, while Bo Nix has the lowest PFF grade of any qualified quarterback. Not exactly the stuff of a preseason Super Bowl 60 odds contender.

Sean Payton’s crew is 27th in third down conversation rate, and are coming off a truly horrific showing against the Chargers. Seven of their 10 possessions produced less than 10 yards, with four drives going for 1 yard or negative yardage. They’re also the fourth most penalized team in the league, and few things kill a drive faster than an offensive flag.

The only reason Denver has played back-to-back nail bitters is because their defense is among the NFL’s best. They grade out top-11 in pass rush and run defense metrics, while Patrick Surtain II is arguably the best cover corner in football. He’ll likely spent most of his night shadowing Ja’Marr Chase, who’s been held to 50 receiving yards or less in two of three outings.

As for the Cincinnati defense, it’s actually performed above expectation. Yes, Minnesota hung 48 points on them, but that was largely due to short fields off turnovers. The Bengals have allowed a touchdown on only 27% of opponent red zone trips, which is the second lowest mark in the NFL.

Struggling offenses, plus one great defense, and another exceeding expectations screams under. These two teams are also among the slowest in the league, ranking bottom-nine in plays per game. Fewer plays equals less opportunity for points.

Looking for more Bengals vs Broncos plays? Check out the following:

• Bengals vs Broncos same-game parlay
• Bengals vs Broncos player prop bets

Bengals vs Broncos Betting Trends

As for the betting trends, the most prominent ones favor Cincinnati. Road teams coming off a 24-point spread loss are 62% against the spread the following week. Underdogs on the heels of a 35+ point loss after Week 3, are 69% ATS the following game. I can’t pull the trigger on the Bengals though, making under 44.5 my only play.

Bengals vs Broncos Closing Odds

The best odds we can get on the under is -110 at Bet365. If you like the other side, DraftKings is offering over 44.5 at -105 odds. Denver is currently favored by 7.5 points, with Bet365 offering the lowest juice at -110. BetMGM meanwhile, is offering the best payout on a Bengals upset at +375.

Odds as of 6 pm ET, Sept. 29. New customers can claim the Bet365 promo code and get a bonus to bet on Bengals vs Broncos.

Per the NFL public betting percentages, the under is currently drawing 61% of the total wagers, as bettors are banking on a Denver game falling short of the number for the third time in four tries this season.