- The Patriots and Rams will square off in Super Bowl 53, a rematch of Super Bowl 36
- One sportsbook is offering historical over/unders that pit this year’s players against the top performances from Super Bowl 36
- Which bets offer the most value?
Back in 2002, a baby faced 6th-round pick from the University of Michigan pulled off one of the biggest upsets in Super Bowl history, as Tom Brady led the New England Patriots to a 20-17 win over the heavily favored St. Louis Rams, also known as the Greatest Show on Turf.
To commemorate the upcoming rematch of Super Bowl 36 and the start of the Patriots’ dynasty, one sportsbook is offering a unique set of over/unders that pit the performances of today’s stars against those from 2002.
Tom Brady’s memorable first Super Bowl win saw him field an adjusted completion percentage of 100.0% on his final drive.pic.twitter.com/tA2vzYrkTW
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) January 22, 2019
Brady, the only current Patriot who was on the Super Bowl 36 roster, is front and center on the betting sheet, with two props I believe we can take advantage of.
Prop #1: Tom Brady pass attempts
|More Pass Attempts||Odds (Jan. 25)|
|Tom Brady in Super Bowl 36 (27 Att)||+10.5 (-115)|
|Tom Brady in Super Bowl 53||-10.5 (-115)|
Brady only threw the ball 27 times in ’02, and with the line set at +10.5, he’ll need 38 attempts for the over on this prop to hit. Sure that seems high, but keep in mind the Patriots have thrown the ball 90 times so far in just two playoff games.
Tom Brady sees your more “talented team” and raise[s] you best of all time decision making.
Also took 8:05 minutes off the clock on a 15-play drive.pic.twitter.com/ItVoy04hzD
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) January 20, 2019
Vegas projects the Super Bowl to be close, and in one- score games this season, Brady has averaged over 39 pass attempts.
He’s thrown the ball at least 38 times in 11 straight playoff games, and has exceeded 40 attempts in each of his last five Super Bowl appearances.
Tom Brady’s career Super Bowl grades pic.twitter.com/aBD2XBayUX
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) January 24, 2019
The Pick: Brady in Super Bowl 53 -10.5 (-115)
Prop#2: Tom Brady pass completions
|More Pass Completions||Odds (Jan. 25)|
|Tom Brady in Super Bowl 36 (16 Comp)||+11.5 (-120)|
|Tom Brady in Super Bowl 53||-11.5 (-110)|
If we loved the over on Brady’s attempts prop, you better believe we love the over on his completions prop, as well.
He’ll need 28 completions for us to cash, and if he gets the volume we predict, that shouldn’t be a problem. Brady has been surgical this postseason, completing over 71% of his passes for 691 yards and two touchdowns.
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) January 21, 2019
The Rams appear to be a difficult matchup on paper, but their strength in coverage lies on the boundaries. They’re susceptible to pass-catching running backs and tight ends. Alvin Kamara caught 11 balls against them in the NFC Championship, and no one throws more to his running backs and tight ends than Brady.
Patriots get ANOTHER touchdown as James White sneaks out of the backfield for six. Patriots now lead 21-3. White is having a big first half.
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) October 5, 2018
Expect the Pats to dink and dunk their way down the field with short to medium-range completions, taking advantage of favorable matchups for James White and Rob Gronkowski.
The Pick: Brady in Super Bowl 53 -11.5 (-110)
Prop #3: Jared Goff vs Kurt Warner touchdown passes
|Most Touchdown Passes||Odds|
|Kurt Warner Super Bowl 36 (1 TD)||+1.5 (-140)|
|Jared Goff Super Bowl 53||-1.5 (+110)|
The Rams want to run the ball, and with the thunder-and-lightning combination of CJ Anderson and Todd Gurley, it’s hard to blame them.
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) January 20, 2019
Although their new-found dedication to the run has been great for their overall success, it has severely limited Jared Goff’s production.
Over the last four games, the Rams have run the ball 58% of the time, and Goff has eclipsed 28 pass attempts just once. He’ll need three touchdown passes to cash the over on this prop, something he’s done just once in his last seven starts.
— NFL (@NFL) January 22, 2019
Goff has thrown just two touchdown passes in three career playoff games, and while the Rams will no doubt put up some points, I doubt 21 of those points will come from Goff’s arm.
The Pick: Kurt Warner in Super Bowl 36 +1.5 (-140)
Our Super Bowl Prop Coverage
Let's have fun and keep it civil.