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Bills vs Chiefs Props – Best Team and Player Prop Bets

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in NFL Football

Jan 23, 2021 · 9:22 AM PST

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen carrying the ball during an NFL game.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) carries the ball during the second half of an NFL football game against the Kansas City Chiefs in Orchard park, N.Y., Monday Oct. 19, 2020. (AP/ Photo Jeffrey T. Barnes)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites over the Buffalo Bills in Sunday’s AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium
  • Current record: 30-28, +2.67 units won
  • The best prop wagers to play out of this tilt are listed below

When the Kansas City Chiefs went to the first Super Bowl game, they beat the Buffalo Bills 31-7 in the AFL Championship Game. The Bills made their most recent Super Bowl appearance in 1994 after defeating the Chiefs 30-13 in the AFC Championship Game.

The rubber match in terms of title tilts is Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs, who beat the Bills 26-17 in Week 6 of the NFL regular season at Buffalo, are 3.5-point home favorites. The betting line moved from Kansas City -3 on Friday when news broke that KC quarterback Patrick Mahomes was out of concussion protocol and cleared to play.

Kickoff for Sunday’s game is 6:40pm EST. Check out the updated injury reports, as well as other betting options prior to kickoff, but let’s start with the lines for player props.

Bills vs Chiefs Player Props

Quarterback Completions Passing Yards Passing TDs
Josh Allen (BUF) 26.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 305.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 1.5 (Ov -225| Un +175)
Patrick Mahomes (KC) 26.5 (Ov -125 | Un +101) 310.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 1.5 (Ov -250| Un +195)
Running Backs Rush Attempts Rush Yards Receiving and Rush Yards
Darrel Williams (KC) 9.5 (Ov -112| Un -112) 41.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) N/A
Devin Singletary (BUFF) 9.5 (Ov -120| Un +100) 39.5 (Ov -118 | Un -103) 63.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)
Josh Allen (BUF) N/A 33.5 (Ov -110| Un -110) N/A
Wide Receivers + Tight Ends Receptions Receiving Yards Longest Reception
John Brown (BUF) 4.5 (Ov +115| Un -143) 52.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 21.5 (Ov -115 | Un -110)
Dawson Knox (BUF) 2.5 (Ov +110 | Un -137) 23.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 13.5 (Ov -111 | Un -110)
Stefon Diggs (BUF) 7.5 (Ov -106 | Un -118) 94.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 26.5 (Ov -128 | Un +105)
Devin Singletary (BUF) 2.5 (Ov -182 | Un +145 19.5 (Ov -118 | Un -105) 11.5 (Ov +100 | Un -120)
Cole Beasley (BUFF) 3.5 (Ov -161 | Un -130) 47.5 (Ov -105 | Un -115) 19.5 (Ov -118 | Un -105)
Tyreek Hill (KC) 5.5 (Ov -165 | Un +130) 77.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 25.5 (Ov -115 | Un -110)
Travis Kelce (KC) 7.5 (Ov -106 | Un -118) 94.5 (Ov -118 | Un -106) 23.5 (Ov -115 | Un -110)

All odds taken Jan. 15th from DraftKings/FanDuel/BetMGM

Prop #1: Keying On Allen

During their regular-season victory over the Bills, the Chiefs defense held Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen in check. He was limited to a season-low 14 completions and 122 passing yards.

That game was played in a downpour, so maybe don’t put all your eggs into that basket. Still, Allen has gone over 26.5 completions just twice in his last six games and only three times through the last eight games.

In those three games, the Bills scored 34 (San Francisco 49ers), 38 (New England Patriots) and 48 (Denver Broncos) points against non-playoff teams with losing records. Hard to imagine he’ll go off like that against the reigning Super Bowl champions.

Pick: Josh Allen under 26.5 completions (-112), 1 unit.

Prop #2: Kelce Will Tight End Up

Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce is a machine when it comes to putting up numbers. He’s gone over 100 yards in receptions six times through his last nine games. In one of the games where he came up short of the century mark, Kelce finished with 98 yards.

Mahomes loves to go to Kelce when he needs a big play. He’s targeted his big tight end at least 10 times in eight of his past nine games. Kelce pulled in a minimum of eight catches in eight of those nine games, finishing with seven in the other contest.

Pick: Travis Kelce over 7.5 receptions (-106), 1 unit.

Bills vs Chiefs Touchdown Props

Player Odds to Score First TD Odds to Score Any TD
Travis Kelce (KC) +700 -125
Tyreek Hill (KC) +700 -134
Stefon Diggs (BUF) +850 -106
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) +1100 +135
Josh Allen (BUF) +1100 +135
Darrel Williams (KC) +1300 +180
Mecole Hardman (KC) +1500 +200
Devin Singletary (BUF) +1500 +190
John Brown (BUF) +1500 +190
Dawson Knox (BUF) +2000 +275
Cole Beasley (BUF) +2000 +275
Patrick Mahomes (KC) +2200 +300
Demarcus Robinson (KC) +2200 +325
Sammy Watkins (KC) +2200 +325
Gabriel Davis (BUF) +2800 +375
Le’Veon Bell (KC) +3300 +500

Who Are the Best Bets to Score a Touchdown?

Kelce has also found the end zone in each of his last five games. He’s scored KC’s first TD of the game four times this season. That includes an 11-yard scoring reception for the first TD in the Chiefs’ Week 6 win over the Bills.

Wide receiver Stefon Diggs set Bills marks this season with NFL-leading numbers for receptions (127) and receiving yardage (1,535). He’s scored five TDs in his last four games, and has a TD catch to his credit in each of his last three postseason games.

  • Travis Kelce first TD scorer (+700), 1 unit
  • Stefon Diggs anytime TD scorer (-106), 1 unit
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