Bills vs Broncos Prediction, Picks & Betting Splits for Divisional Round
By Sascha Paruk in NFL News
Published:
The 2026 AFC Divisional Round delivers a repeat of last year’s Wild Card as the Buffalo Bills (13-5, 8-2 away, 9-9 ATS) venture to Empower Field at Mile High to face the Denver Broncos (14-3, 8-1 home, 7-9-1 ATS) at 4:30 pm ET on Saturday, January 17th.
The Bills bounced the Broncos last season (31-7 in Buffalo) but Denver enters this Divisional Round clas as narrow 1.5-point home favorites, buoyed by the thin air and raucous crowd at Mile High.
This comprehensive betting analysis dissects every angle, from situational trends and injury impacts to market movement and statistical mismatches, in order to identify the sharpest value.
Jump to: PICKS || ODDS || BETTING SPLITS
Bills vs Broncos Picks, Predictions & Best Bets
ATS Pick: Bills +1.5 (-110) at bet365
In a postseason matchup priced as essentially a pick’em, the analytical edge belongs to the proven commodity. While Denver commands respect as home favorites with Sean Payton’s playoff pedigree, Buffalo’s offensive efficiency metrics present a compelling case for taking the Bills as +100 moneyline underdogs. Despite a lengthy injury report that has concerned the betting market, the core elements of Buffalo’s championship-caliber attack remain intact.
The numbers reveal a stark offensive advantage for Buffalo, even accounting for Denver’s home-field benefits and defensive potential: the Bills finished the regular season fourth in Offensive DVOA, fifth on offense at PFF, and first in offensive EPA per play at NFeLo.
Denver was 15th in O-DVOA, 16th on offense at PFF, and 16th in offensive EPA per play. Denver’s defense ranked better than Buffalo’s across basically all metrics, but as Josh Allen and company showed last week, they can turn any game into a last-score-wins shootout.
Score Prediction: Buffalo Bills 27, Denver Broncos 24
BUF Bills vs DEN Broncos Divisional Round Odds
As of first thing Saturday morning, the Broncos are -112 or shorter on the moneyline (best odds at FanDuel), while the Bills are as long as even-money (at bet365). The best ATS price on Buffalo is -1.0 (-110) at Caesars, while bet365 has the best ATS price on Buffalo at +1.5 (-110).
The NFL odds still show a one-point range on the Bills/Broncos game total, with Caesars offering the best over number (Ov 45.5 at -114) and FanDuel offering the best under price (Un 46.5 at -120).
Vig-Free Win Probabilities:
- Denver Broncos: 51.99%
- Buffalo Bills: 48.01%
BUF vs DEN Public-Betting Splits
Market analysis reveals overwhelming consensus supporting Buffalo and a high-scoring contest in the latest NFL public betting percentages, with both recreational and professional bettors aligned on the Bills’ value proposition despite underdog status.
Betting Handle Distribution:
- Moneyline: 85% of total handle backing Buffalo at +100
- Spread: 67% supporting Bills +1.5
- Total Points: 71% of money on over 46.5
This lopsided action heavily favors Buffalo across all primary markets, reinforcing my picks. When public sentiment and sharp money converge this decisively, it typically signals a clear market inefficiency.
Sign Up for SBD’s Newsletter Now
Did you want the latest sports betting news, analysis, picks, betting trends, and relevant data straight to your inbox? If so, you’ll want to subscribe to SBD’s newsletter now!
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
