Upcoming Match-ups

Bills vs Chiefs Odds, Lines, Spread, and Picks for Week 5 SNF

Daniel Coyle

by Daniel Coyle in NFL Football

Oct 10, 2021 · 5:47 AM PDT

Josh Allen reaching for endzone while being tackled
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) dives short of the end zone while pressured by Houston Texans defensive back Justin Reid (20) during the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Oct. 3, 2021, in Orchard Park, N.Y. (AP Photo/Adrian Kraus)
  • The Buffalo Bills vie for a fourth straight win as theyvisit the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football as betting underdogs
  • SNF Betting Record: 0-0 ML; 1-2 ATS; 3-1 Totals; + 0.8 units
  • Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction

The Buffalo Bills will be aiming to extend their lead atop the AFC East standings with a fourth straight win when they visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football as 2.5-point underdogs.

The Bills’ offense continued to roll in last week’s 40-0 rout of the Houston Texans, but face a revitalized Chiefs squad that is coming off their most decisive victory so far this season, a 42-30 road win over the Philadelphia Eagles.

Bills vs Chiefs Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Buffalo Bills +2.5 (-105) +125 O 56 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 (-115) -145 U 56 (-110)

*Odds taken at DraftKings on October 9, 2021.

Start time of Sunday night’s contest at Arrowhead Stadium is set for 8:20pm ET. Sunny skies are expected to give way to increasing clouds, with a chance of rain later on Sunday evening, with temperatures remaining in the mid- to high-70s throughout the evening.

Line Movement

Sunday night’s matchup marks the third meeting between these two teams since October of last year. The Chiefs tallied a 26-17 win in Buffalo in Week 6 of last season, and followed up with a decisive 38-24 win on home turf in last season’s AFC championship game. Overall, Kansas City has taken five of six from the Bills since 2012. The Chiefs have limited Buffalo to 17 or fewer points on four occasions during that stretch, fueling a steady 5-1 run for the UNDER in totals betting.

Despite that recent dominance, the spread has tilted slightly in Buffalo’s favor since opening at KC -3. Indeed, the Bills have attracted 41% of the betting dollars and 87% of the total bets on this contest, setting the stage for further movement ahead of game time. In line with recent trends, the total has dipped slightly, slipping to 56 since opening at 56.5.

Bills Enjoying Dominant Run

Stunned by a 23-16 upset defeat at the hands of the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers back in Week 1, the Bills have wasted no time in regaining their touch. The Bills have badly outclassed inferior opponents during their current 3-0 straight up and against the spread run, outscoring opponents by a wide 118-21 margin in wins over Miami, Washington, and Houston. Josh Allen has continued to solidify his position among the NFL’s elite passers during that stretch, tossing for eight scores while being picked off on just two occasions.

However, the Bills’ ground game cannot be overlooked. Led by the backfield duo of Devin Singletary and Zack Moss, Buffalo has racked up almost 155 rushing yards per game during the team’s current win streak, and recorded six total scoring runs. That continued production could be key against the Chiefs, who have struggled at times to contain opposing rushers, allowing eight total scoring runs through their first four contests.

Injuries remain somewhat of a concern with Buffalo. Reports indicate that veteran linebacker AJ Milano is not expected to play as he battles a hamstring injury. However, the Bills have received plenty of good news from the clinic, with cornerback Tre’Davious White (shoulder), defensive end Greg Rousseau (toe), safety Jordan Poyer (ankle), guard Jon Feliciano (concussion), cornerback Taron Johnson (groin), and tackle Spencer Brown (knee) all set to return.

Can Chiefs Step Up vs Top-Flight Opponents?

The Chiefs will be aiming to build on last week’s rout of the Eagles, but have work to do to regain their dominant touch, both at home and against top-flight opponents. While the Chiefs managed to hold the pesky Eagles at bay, they have otherwise had their hands full. They were lucky to escape with a narrow 33-29 season-opening win over the visiting Cleveland Browns, a contest in which they allowed four scoring runs.

The team faced more defensive challenges in a 36-35 loss in Baltimore, and saw their defense picked apart by pivot Justin Herbert while twice blowing second-half leads in a 30-24 home loss to the Los Angeles Chargers.

The upside for the Chiefs is their steady run when playing in prime time. Kansas City has gone 8-2 in its past 10 contests under the lights, including three straight home victories in which they have limited opponents to fewer than 16 points per game. But with the Bills already showing red-hot mid-season form, Sunday night offers a great opportunity to follow the money.

The Picks: Bills to win (+125) – 1 unit; OVER 56 (-110) – 1 unit

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