Bills vs Jaguars Picks, Predictions, Injury Concerns &

• The Jaguars are slight home favorites over the Bills in Sunday’s first Wild Card game
• The Bills opened as the chalk but money has pushed the line towards the Jags
• See Bills vs Jaguars expert picks, plus injury reports and betting splits

A marquee AFC matchup kicks off Wild Card Sunday as the Buffalo Bills (12-5, 5-3 away) travel to EverBank Stadium to face the Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4, 7-2 home) at 1:00 pm ET on CBS. This clash features two championship-caliber franchises led by elite quarterbacks Josh Allen and Trevor Lawrence, with the Jaguars sitting as narrow 1.5-point home favorites.

The betting markets view this as essentially a coin flip, but Buffalo’s extensive injury concerns – particularly on defense – create a significant edge for Jacksonville’s healthier roster playing in front of its home crowd. With key defensive pieces potentially sidelined, the Bills face an uphill battle against a Jaguars offense that should exploit those vulnerabilities effectively.

Below, I have set out my top Bills vs Jaguars picks, followed by the latest BUF/JAX odds, and the betting splits.

Bills vs Jaguars Betting Picks and Predictions

When analyzing a matchup this tight, injury situations and home-field advantage become the decisive factors. The Buffalo Bills’ concerning injury report, headlined by linebacker Terrel Bernard’s absence from practice, creates exploitable gaps in their defensive scheme that Jacksonville is perfectly positioned to attack.

Spread Pick: Jaguars -1.0 (-105 at bet365)

Buffalo’s defensive vulnerabilities tip the scales in this near pick’em. Bernard anchors their run-stopping unit, and his potential absence opens clear rushing lanes for Travis Etienne Jr. Additionally, pass-rusher Joey Bosa’s hamstring injury limits their ability to generate consistent pressure on Trevor Lawrence.

Jacksonville enters significantly healthier and gets the benefit of playing at home in their season opener. With the spread at just 1.5 points, we’re essentially getting a free half-point on what amounts to a pick’em game.

The Pick: Jaguars -1.5 (-104)

Total Points Pick: Under 51.5 (-105 at BetMGM)

While Allen versus Lawrence suggests offensive fireworks, the 51.5 total appears inflated given the game circumstances. Buffalo may be without wide receiver Joshua Palmer, forcing them to rely more heavily on their ground game with James Cook to control clock and limit possessions.

If Jacksonville establishes their rushing attack against Buffalo’s compromised front seven, they’ll also lean on methodical, time-consuming drives. In a tightly contested game with championship implications, both coaches may adopt more conservative approaches that favor ball control over explosive plays.

The Pick: Under 51.5 (-105)

Player Prop Pick: Travis Etienne Jr Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at Caesars)

This prop aligns perfectly with my game thesis. Terrel Bernard’s absence creates a significant vulnerability in Buffalo’s run defense that Etienne can exploit throughout the contest.

Supporting factors:

• Clear lead back role with goal-line carries
• Favorable matchup against depleted linebacker corps
• Game script favors rushing attempts for home favorite
• 65.5-yard threshold very attainable given expected volume

BUF Bills vs JAX Jaguars Odds

Odds as of January 10 at FanDuel.

The exceptionally tight odds reflect the market’s view of this matchup as a virtual toss-up. Jacksonville’s slight -116 moneyline favorite status compared to Buffalo’s -102 underdog odds demonstrates minimal separation between these AFC contenders.

Vig-Free Win Probabilities:

• Jacksonville Jaguars: 51.5%
• Buffalo Bills: 48.5%

The 51.5-point total suggests bookmakers anticipate an offensive showcase between two dynamic passing attacks, though my analysis points toward a more grind-it-out affair.

Bills vs Jaguars Public Betting Analysis

The NFL public betting percentages reveal interesting splits that contrast sharply with my analysis:

Money Distribution:

• Moneyline: 69.74% backing Buffalo Bills (+102) vs 30.26% on Jacksonville Jaguars (-116)
• Spread: 57.23% on Jaguars -1.5 vs 42.77% on Bills +1.5
• Total: 62.32% expecting Over 51.5 points vs 37.68% on Under

My picks create a contrarian approach against the public money. While we align with the 57.23% backing Jacksonville to cover, we’re fading the overwhelming 69.74% of moneyline handle on Buffalo and the 62.32% expecting a high-scoring affair. This sharp-public divide often creates value opportunities for disciplined bettors.

Bills vs Jaguars Injury Report

Buffalo enters with a significantly more concerning injury situation, listing 16 players compared to Jacksonville’s six. Several Bills defenders failed to practice, creating potential exploitable matchups.

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