Broncos vs Commanders Picks, Predictions & Closing Odds for SNF (Week 13)

• The Broncos are heavy road favorites over the injury-riddled Commanders on SNF
• Washington has lost an NFL-worst six straight, while Denver is on an eight-game win streak
• See the Broncos vs Commanders closing odds plus my picks for Sunday Night Football

The Denver Broncos (9-2, 3-2 away, 5-5-1 ATS, 3-8 O/U) and Washington Commanders (3-8, 2-3 home, 3-8 ATS, 5-5-1 O/U) meet in a Week 13 clash that has been completely transformed by injuries, turning a competitive matchup into a lopsided affair, at least on paper.

Denver enters Sunday Night Football riding an eight-game win streak that has them battling for the top seed and lone bye in the AFC. Washington has spiraled in the opposite direction, losing six straight following due to a slew of significant injuries.

Sophomore quarterback Jayden Daniels (elbow) remains out while a slew of other starters have landed on IR, including RB Austin Ekeler and CB Marshon Lattimore. Their absences create a massive challenge for a Washington offense that already ranks among the league’s most turnover-prone units. Meanwhile, the Broncos arrive healthy and hungry, led by the NFL’s most ferocious pass rush.

This SNF showdown kicks off at 8:20 pm ET from Northwest Stadium in Landover, MD, with the Broncos installed as substantial road favorites. Below, I will break down the key matchups and statistical advantages to find the best Broncos vs Commanders picks. But first, the closing odds for Sunday Night Football.

Jump to: CLOSING ODDS || PICKS || BETTING SPLITS || TEAM STATS H2H

Broncos vs Commanders Closing Odds

As of 6:30 pm ET, the Broncos/Commanders point spread still ranges from DEN -5.5 to -6.5. The best ATS price for Denver bettors is currently -5.5 (-114) at FanDuel, while the best ATS price for Washington bettors is +6.5 (-121) at DraftKings.

On the moneyline, the Commanders are as long as +240 (Caesars Sportsbook). The Broncos are -280 at FanDuel, and even shorter elsewhere.

The total only shows a half-point range with bet365 offering a market-best over number/price (over 43.0 at -110) and DraftKings offering the bet under number/price (under 43.5 at -115).

Vig-Free Win Probabilities:

• Denver Broncos: 71.5%
• Washington Commanders: 28.5%

Odds and commentary as of 6:30 pm ET. The lines in the table will update automatically to reflect the best-available price for each market if the NFL odds shift in the final hours before kickoff.

Broncos vs Commanders Picks & Best Bets

DEN vs WSH Against the Spread Pick: Broncos -5.5 (-115) at FanDuel

This picks is largely justified by Washington’s catastrophic injury situation. The absence of Daniels has proven to be a death sentence for the Commander offense for much of this season. Backup Marcus Mariota will have to go against Denver’s relentless defensive front, arguably the toughest matchup he’s seen all season.

Denver’s defense has accumulated 49 total sacks this season, averaging 4.5 per game. Washington’s offensive line will face constant pressure without the mobility of Daniels to escape the pocket. Mariota is plenty mobile but has been sacked 10 times in six games, taking multiple sacks in four of his last five starts.

Supporting Trends:

• Denver is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as road favorites
• Washington has failed to cover in 7 of its last 10 as home underdogs
• The Broncos have covered in 7 of their last 10 road games

Score Prediction: Broncos 24, Commanders 13

DEN vs WSH Game-Total Prediction: Under 43.5 (-115) at DraftKings

Multiple factors point toward a low-scoring defensive struggle:

• Denver is an NFL-best 8-3 to the under this season
• The under has cashed in 8 of Washington’s last 12 home games
• Weather conditions at Northwest Stadium could further suppress offensive output
• The Commanders’ depleted offensive personnel severely limits their scoring ceiling

Best Player Prop to Bet: Marcus Mariota Over 0.5 Interceptions (-130) at BetMGM

Mariota has been generous to defenses this season, throwing five interceptions in just 5.5 games under center. Now the veteran backup is forced into action yet again with one of the league’s most effective defensive fronts on the opposite side.

If Denver takes a lead, as expected, negative game script will force Washington into obvious passing situations in the second half. The Broncos only have six interceptions this season, but five of those have come in the last five games.

Broncos vs Commanders Public-Betting Splits

The NFL public betting percentages show near-unanimous consensus, with overwhelming support for Denver across multiple markets.

Current money distribution:

• Moneyline: 95% backing Denver (-292), just 5% on Washington (+236)
• Spread: 77% of handle supporting Broncos -5.5
• Total: 58% favoring under 43.5 on just 54% of wagers

The lopsided public action on Denver aligns with my ATS pick, as does the 58% of money on the under.

DEN vs WSH Statistical Breakdown

The numbers reveal significant mismatches that favor the Broncos across multiple critical categories, particularly where their strengths exploit Washington’s weaknesses.

All statistics represent per-game averages for the 2025 regular season through Week 12.

Key Mismatches

The statistical comparison reveals two critical areas where Denver holds decisive advantages:

Pass Rush vs Protection: Denver’s elite pass rush (49 total sacks) creates nightmarish matchups for a Washington offense already struggling with turnovers (-8 differential). Without Daniels’ mobility, backup quarterback Mariota becomes an easy target for pressure packages.

Offensive Consistency: While Washington boasts excellent red zone efficiency (71.4%), their ability to reach scoring position is severely compromised by their depleted receiving corps. Denver’s balanced attack, led by Bo Nix’s steady pocket presence, should control field position and sustain drives against Washington’s modest pass rush.

The Broncos’ quarterback Bo Nix enters with manageable expectations on his passing yards prop (226.5), while defensive stars like Zach Allen (Over 0.25 sacks at -116) face favorable matchups against Washington’s compromised offensive line. These individual player props align perfectly with the broader team trends favoring a dominant Denver performance.

Sign Up for SBD’s Newsletter Now

Did you want the latest sports betting news, analysis, picks, betting trends, and relevant data straight to your inbox? If so, you’ll want to subscribe to SBD’s newsletter now!