Browns vs Chiefs Odds, Lines, Spread, and Picks NFL Week 1
By Robert Duff in NFL Football
Published:
- The Kansas City Chiefs are 5.5-point favorites over the Cleveland Browns in their Week 1 NFL matchup on Sunday, September 12
- It’s a rematch of their 2020 AFC Divisional playoff, won 22-17 by KC
- The Browns are 0-14-1 straight up in their last 15 season openers – see below for our betting prediction
Getting to the playoffs and winning game in the postseason was huge for the Cleveland Browns. They even gave the Kansas City Chiefs a scare before falling 22-17 in the AFC Divisional Round.
These Browns are far removed from the hapless club that was a mistake by the lake for so many seasons. However, there still remain some facets in need of correction.
For starters, there’s Cleveland’s record in season openers. The Browns are 0-14-1 in Week 1 over the past 15 seasons. Since rejoining the NFL in 1999, Cleveland has gone a combined 1-19-1 in openers.
Returning to Kansas City to again face the Chiefs, oddsmakers see Cleveland’s frustrations continuing. The Chiefs are set as 5.5-point favorites. Kansas City was only 4-5 against the spread as a home favorite last season.
Browns vs Chiefs Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | +205 | +5.5 (-110) | O 54.5 (-115) |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -250 | -5.5 (-110) | U 54.5 (-105) |
Odds as of September 11th at FanDuel
Kickoff on Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium is set for 4:26pm ET. The forecast is calling for clouds, 17 mph wind and a temperature of 94 degrees.
Line Movement
Heavy wagering on the Browns is causing the betting line to shorten. The opening point spread was Kansas City -6. However, 88% of public bets placed against the spread are on the Browns. The resulting impact was the line shortening to Chiefs -5.5. Overall, though, 68% of bets and 75% of the money in spread wagering is backing Kansas City.
The Browns and Chiefs last played each other in Week 1 back in 2002. This is how it ended. pic.twitter.com/Ft9vkpCW92
— Stuckey (@Stuckey2) September 8, 2021
There’s also been movement in the moneyline. KC has shortened from -275 to -250. At the same time, the Browns moved from +220 to +205. Creating that shift was the moneyline splits showing 88% of the public moneyline bets are on the Browns. Again, though, in the overall scheme of things, 82% of bets and 95% of money in the moneyline pool is wagered on KC.
The total has grown from 53 points to 54.5 points. There are 88% of public bets on the under. In the grand picture, 73% of bets and 95% of bets are favoring the over.
Mayfield vs Mahomes
Certainly, the subplot of this game is the quarterback battle that NFL fans were deprived of in last season’s playoffs. A concussion put Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes out of the game. Chiefs backup Chad Henne, the second-most famous former Michigan Wolverines QB to perform in the 2020 playoffs, came on to lead KC to victory.
Patrick Mahomes has never lost in Weeks 1-4 of his NFL career.
He puts his 12-0 record on the line when the Chiefs host the Browns in Week 1. pic.twitter.com/H4Mh6G6ofW
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) September 10, 2021
Mahomes has won a Super Bowl, an NFL MVP and a Super Bowl MVP. But perhaps the most pertinent stat entering this game is that he’s never lost in September as an NFL starter. Mahomes is 12-0 over the first month of the NFL season.
Mayfield is 2-6 in his career in starts against QBs who’ve won the Super Bowl. November 4, 2018 was the first time these two met as NFL starters. Mahomes and the Chiefs were 37-21 winners.
Injury Report
Although he’s facing felony firearms charges and is listed as questionable, it appears as though Chiefs DE Frank Clark will be in the lineup for Sunday’s game.
The news doesn’t appear to be as positive regarding DT Derrick Nnadi. He suffered a knee injury this week and didn’t practice Friday. He’s also being listed as questionable. Strong side linebacker Willie Gay (toe-IR) is out.
Browns’ HC Kevin Stefanski on the status of WR Odell Beckham Jr. for Sunday’s opener against the Chiefs: pic.twitter.com/YfT3J7yAbd
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) September 10, 2021
Coming back from season-ending knee surgery, wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr is among five Cleveland starters listed as questionable for Sunday’s game. Center JC Tretter (knee) is also questionable, as is kicker Chase McLoughlin (right hamstring. Rookie kicker Chris Naggar has been activated for Sunday’s game.
On defense, DE Jadeveon Clowney (illness) and strong safety S Ronnie Harrison (ankle) are questionable. Making Harrison’s injury more problematic is that his backup Grant Delpit (hamstring) is also questionable.
Trendspotting
Cleveland’s last two openers were a 38-6 loss to Baltimore and a 43-13 drubbing by Tennessee. The Browns last won an opener on the road on September 4, 1994, a 28-20 win at Cincinnati.
Five games in Week 1 are between teams that made the playoffs last season: Steelers-Bills, Seahawks-Colts, Browns-Chiefs, Packers-Saints and Bears-Rams.
According to @EliasSports, that’s tied for the most Week 1 games between playoff teams from the previous season in NFL history. pic.twitter.com/vlc0DajHr0— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) September 9, 2021
There will be a capacity crowd at Arrowhead, where the Chiefs are 27-17 straight up in their last 44 games. KC has won four straight overall and three in a row at home over Cleveland.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 (-110), 1 unit.
Sports Writer
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
