- The Browns (2-6) are 3-point favorites at home against the Bills (6-2)
- Both sharps and the public are fading Cleveland
- Get the odds, our pick, and all the info you need to bet the game below
The Browns (2-6) look to break a four-game losing streak as they play host to the Bills (6-2) on Sunday. It’s been a disappointing season in Cleveland, and things won’t get any easier against Buffalo.
Buffalo Bills vs Cleveland Browns Odds
|Buffalo Bills||+3 (-125)||+125||O 40.5 (-110)|
|Cleveland Browns||-3 (+105)||-145||U 40.5 (-110)|
*Odds taken November 9
These teams’ records against the spread have been very similar to their straight up records. The Bills are 6-2 straight up in 2019, and only one game worse at 5-3 against the spread. Cleveland, meanwhile, has identical 2-6 marks in both categories.
Everyone Fading the Browns
Across the board, bettors are fading Cleveland. According to sportsbooks, 77% of the handle, as well as 77% of the bet count, has come in on the Bills.
Additionally, 86% of the sharp handle has been on Buffalo as well.
The Cleveland Browns don’t want to win and you can’t convince me otherwise!!!
Noah Fant-astic?? pic.twitter.com/FtcEDcO8A5
— Emmanuel Acho (@thEMANacho) November 3, 2019
Defenses Will be Key
Neither offense has been electric, but the biggest gap between these teams come on the defensive side of the ball. The Bills give up only 16.4 points and 296.3 yards per game. Meanwhile, Cleveland gives up almost 10 more points and allow 357.5 yards a contest.
The defenses are especially important given that both of the starting quarterbacks in this matchup have been unimpressive in 2019.
JOSH ALLEN IS FEELING GOOD.
He earns his 12th rushing TD since 2018, which leads all NFL QBs! pic.twitter.com/63mAkYvbwQ
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) November 3, 2019
The Bills’ Josh Allen has had a pedestrian season. With a passer rating of 82.9, he’s averaging only 206.6 yards per game, and has thrown just 10 touchdowns to 7 interceptions.
Mayfield, however, has been worse. He’s completing only 58.7% of his throws and has only seven touchdowns with 12 interceptions.
Neither quarterback is playing particularly well, and it will be up to these defenses to take advantage of that. The Bills are equipped to do so, with the sixth-ranked unit in total defense. Cleveland, however, has only the league’s 18th best defense.
What’s the Best Bet?
There’s a reason that everyone has been hammering the Bills all week long. Buffalo has been good, but the bigger factor is Cleveland’s ineptitude. Aside from maybe the Atlanta Falcons, no NFL team has been more disappointing than the Browns.
Odell Beckham was open on that 4th-and-4, but Baker Mayfield didn't throw his way.
— Kevin Boilard (@KevinBoilard) November 4, 2019
Mayfield has a passer rating of 71.3, and that reflects just how poorly he’s played. The trademark accuracy has dropped off, and he’s not thriving in Freddie Kitchens’ offense that way he did a year ago.
Cleveland also has the league’s 30th-ranked rush defense, and against a Bills offense that gains nearly 130 yards per game on the ground, this has the look of a game that Buffalo will grind out with the running game.
The Pick: Buffalo +3 (-125)
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