Buccaneers vs Panthers Picks, Predictions, Betting Lines & Splits (Dec 21)

• The Carolina Panthers host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with first place in the NFC South on the line
• See my Buccaneers vs Panthers expert picks and predictions, plus the latest odds and betting splits

In the division no one seems to want to win, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7, 4-3 away, 5-9 ATS, 8-6 O/U) visit the Carolina Panthers (7-7, 4-2 home, 8-6 ATS, 7-7 O/U) with first place on the line. This Week 16 contest kicks off at 1:00 pm ET on Sunday, December 21, at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.

Both teams enter on two-game losing streaks. The Buccaneers currently hold the tiebreaker. The teams will meet again in Week 18 in Tampa Bay.

My comprehensive betting analysis covers spread recommendations, game-total picks, and the top player prop to target, all backed by situational trends and advanced metrics.

Go to: ATS PICK || O/U PICK || PROP PICK || ODDS || BETTING SPLITS

Buccaneers vs Panthers ATS Pick: Buccaneers -2.5 (-120) at BetRivers

The 2.5-point road spread reflects the market’s respect for divisional games, but Tampa Bay’s statistical superiority creates a compelling case for backing the favorites. The Buccaneers possess decisive advantages in the areas that most consistently predict NFL outcomes, in particular defensive pressure and scoring efficiency.

Additionally, Tampa Bay’s +8 turnover differential, compared to Carolina’s -3 mark, stands as a telling statistic. This 11-turnover difference is one of the widest gaps we’ve seen in divisional play this season.

Critical Matchup Metrics

The pass rush disparity creates another compelling angle. Tampa Bay’s 33 sacks compared to Carolina’s 23 translates to consistent quarterback pressure that has generated 12 interceptions this season. Against a still-developing quarterback like Bryce Young, this defensive front presents significant challenges.

Total Points Analysis: Under 46.0 (-115) at Fanatics

Both offensive units operate below explosive thresholds, making the current 46-point total an overreach by the betting market. Tampa Bay averages 22.9 points per game while Carolina manages just 18.7, creating a combined average of 41.6 points – well below the posted number.

The market has already recognized this discrepancy, moving the total down from its opening 46.5-point number. Sharp money typically drives these adjustments, and the line movement supports my under bet.

Both teams convert third downs at sub-40% rates, limiting sustained scoring drives and creating natural game flow toward a lower-scoring affair.

Premium Player Props: Bryce Young Over 0.5 Interceptions (-110) at BetMGM

This prop aligns perfectly with my ATS and game-totak picks. Tampa Bay’s pass-rush advantage consistently forces quarterbacks into poor decisions. The Buccaneers have capitalized with 12 interceptions this season, and Young’s development curve includes turnover management issues when facing elite defensive fronts.

The -110 price offers excellent value for a probable outcome.

Same Game Parlay Suggestion:

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers Moneyline (-154)
• Under 46.0 Total Points (-115)
• Bryce Young Over 0.5 Interceptions Thrown (-110)

This three-leg parlay builds on a consistent game script where Tampa Bay’s defense creates turnovers, controls field position, and limits overall scoring.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers Odds

The spread currently ranges from TB -2.5 (-120) at BetRivers to CAR +3.0 (-115) at BetMGM. The best Panthers moneyline is +130 at bet365 while the best Bucs moneyline is -152 at FanDuel.

The total ranges from 44.5 (-122) at BetRivers to 46.0 (-115) at Fanatics.

Based on current moneyline odds, the vig-free probabilities give Tampa Bay a 58.2% chance of winning, while Carolina holds a 41.8% probability of the home upset.

Odds and commentary as of 10:22 am ET. The lines in the table will update automatically with the best-available prices for each market if the NFL betting odds move before kickoff.

Buccaneers vs Panthers Public Betting Splits

The NFL public betting markets establish clear preferences across all major markets, with sharp distinctions between spread and total wagering patterns.

Current Money Distribution:

• Moneyline: 84% on Tampa Bay , 16% on Carolina
• Spread: 56% on Tampa Bay, 44% on Carolina
• Total: 69% on the over, 31% on the under

The moneyline consensus aligns with my ATS pick, as the overwhelming public support indicates confidence in Tampa Bay’s victory. However, under 45.5 is a contrarian play against two-thirds of the betting handle, suggesting potential line value in fading popular opinion on the game total.

H2H Statistical Breakdown: TB vs CAR

Tampa Bay holds decisive advantages in most critical performance categories.