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Buccaneers vs Patriots Odds, Lines, Spread, and Picks for Week 4 SNF

Daniel Coyle

by Daniel Coyle in NFL Football

Updated Oct 3, 2021 · 5:15 AM PDT

Tom Brady throws pass
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady throws against the Los Angeles Rams during the first half of an NFL football game in Inglewood, Calif. Sports books say the Oct. 3, 2021 game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New England Patriots, marking Tom Brady’s first return to New England as a visiting player, will be the most bet-on regular season NFL game of the year. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong, File)
  • Tom Brady makes his long awaited return to New England as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the Patriots on Sunday Night Football as betting favorites
  • SNF Betting Record: 0-0 ML; 1-1 ATS; 2-1 Totals; + 0.9 units
  • Read below for odds, analysis and a betting prediction

Tom Brady will make his long awaited return to New England this weekend, when he leads the Tampa Bay Buccaneers into action against the Patriots on Sunday Night Football as strong 7-point favorites. The Buccaneers saw their 10-game win streak snapped with a 34-24 loss to the Los Angeles Rams last weekend. The Patriots dipped to 1-2 and remain winless at home this season after falling 28-13 to the New Orleans Saints in Week 3.

Buccaneers vs Patriots Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7 (-105) -305 O 49.5 (-110)
New England Patriots +7 (-115) +240 U 49.5 (-110)

*Odds taken at DraftKings on October 2, 2021.

Start time of Sunday night’s contest at Gillette Stadium is set for 8:20pm ET. Sunny skies are expected for most of the day on Sunday, with clouds rolling in and the chances of rain increasing later in the evening, with temperatures expected to dip into the low 60s Fahrenheit.

Line Movement

Sunday night’s matchup marks the first meeting between these two teams since October 2017. The Patriots have effectively shut down the Tampa Bay offense while posting four straight outright victories, limiting the Buccaneers to just six points per game over that stretch. That run includes wins in each of their past two meetings at Gillette Stadium, with the Buccaneers mustering just three total points in those contests.

Not surprisingly, the UNDER has consistently paid out when these two teams clash, going 7-1 in eight meetings since 1985, and the total reaching 40 points just twice during that run. Of course, with the defending Super Bowl champions arriving in New England led by Brady, expectations for a higher scoring contest have heightened. However, there has been virtually no line movement since Tampa Bay opened at -7. The total has also held steady at 49.5.

Brady Poised to Rewrite Record Book in Homecoming

Penciled in as a must-watch contest prior to the start of the season, Sunday night’s clash marks Tom Brady’s first appearance at Gillette Stadium since his departure from New England prior to last season. The 44-year-old returns for his homecoming perched among the NFL’s passing leaders after tossing for an average over 362 yards and 10 total scores through Week 3.

Poised to smash Drew Brees’ record for most career passing yards, Brady’s total passing yards is pegged at 303.5 on Sunday, while he sports +110 odds to toss for OVER 2.5 scores. However, Brady has been far from consistently prolific in recent appearances on Sunday Night Football. The three-time NFL MVP has thrown multiple TD passes just twice in his past SNF outings, and has cracked 300 yards just three times during that stretch.

Scoring points on the road has not been a problem for the Bucs since assembling last season’s championship roster. Even with last weekend’s loss in Los Angeles, the Buccaneers have averaged an eye-popping 36.7 points per game during a steady 8-1 run, but have failed to cover when pegged as favorites by more than six points during that stretch.

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Patriots’ Offense Looking for a Spark

While the Buccaneers look to start work on a new winning streak, the Patriots return to action looking for answers after last weekend’s lopsided loss to the Saints. With rookie passer Mac Jones at the helm, the Patriots attack has been a disappointment so far this season, averaging just 14.4 points per game in a pair of losses at home.

Jones has tallied just two TD passes against three picks, and has been sacked six times so far in his NFL debut. And overall, the team has reached the end zone on just four total occasions, with each of their scoring runs coming in their Week 2 win over the hapless New York Jets, and last week’s lone score against New Orleans coming in garbage time.

Despite those struggles, the Patriots defense has remained somewhat steady. New England has surrendered and average just 282.3 total yards, fifth best in the NFL. They have also limited opposing passers to a second-ranked 159.7 yards per game while allowing just three scoring tosses against five picks. However, if the Patriots once again surrender the early lead the way they did in their losses to Miami in Week 1 and New Orleans last weekend, it is likely to be a long night for the New England faithful.

The Picks: Buccaneers -7 (-105) – 1 unit; UNDER 49.5 (-110) – 1 unit

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