- The Buffalo Bills will visit the San Francisco 49ers at State Farm Stadium for Monday Night Football
- MNF Picks Record: 1-4 ATS; 3-4 O/U; -4.8 Units
- The Bills have scored 27 points or less in five of their last seven after scoring 27 or more in each of their first four games this season
With two Monday games on the board, the Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers will meet in the traditional Monday Night Football time slot at 8:20 PM ET. What isn’t traditional about this game is that it’ll be played in Phoenix, Arizona in the home stadium of the Arizona Cardinals. That’s because the 49ers aren’t able to play in Santa Clara due to COVID-19 restrictions.
The 49ers ended their three-game losing streak with a win over the Los Angeles Rams last week. Can they cash an underdog for a second straight week as the Bills visit for a primetime matchup?
Bills vs 49ers Odds
|Buffalo Bills||+100||+1.5 (-110)||Ov 46.5 (-115)|
|San Francisco 49ers||-118||-1.5 (-110)||Un 46.5 (-105)|
All odds as of December 5 at FanDuel
49ers Get Off The Mat Versus Rams
It looked like the 49ers season was slipping away. Coming off a three-game losing streak and without quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and star tight end George Kittle, the 49ers were a dog in Los Angeles. However, they showed some impressive fight with a 23-20 win over the Rams.
The 49ers did get a shot in the arm with the return of several other players including Raheem Mostert and Deebo Samuel on offense, and Richard Sherman on the defense. Mostert and Samuel combined for 176 total yards and a touchdown, while Sherman led the team with seven tackles and had an interception.
— OurSF49ers (@OurSf49ers) November 29, 2020
The key for this game will be for them to put forth a similar effort while cutting down on the turnovers (they had three last week). That means moving the chains, dominating time of possession and keeping the Bills explosive offense on the sidelines.
Bills Battling For No. 3 Seed
The Bills are currently 8-3 and the No. 4 seed in the AFC but with the Cleveland Browns also at 8-3, the Indianapolis Colts at 8-4, and the Miami Dolphins at 7-4, the Bills can’t afford to give any ground. They’re fresh off a sloppy but important win last week over the Los Angeles Chargers, which now gives them four in their last five.
Josh. Allen. 😤
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) November 29, 2020
Buffalo has to be slightly concerned with the play of quarterback Josh Allen, who has faded a little bit as the season progressed. He had 12 touchdowns and just one interception in his first four games while averaging 331.5 passing yards per game. He has just six touchdowns and four interceptions in his last four games with just 252.5 passing yards per game.
Allen isn’t completely to blame but it is bizarre to see him with 157 passing yards or less in three of his last six contests. For someone who was a league MVP candidate in September, this is clearly a decline. He needs help from the ground game, which averages just 93.8 rushing yards per game on the road.
What’s The Best Bet?
Betting unders in the NFL – especially in primetime – feels risky but we should see a low-scoring affair here. The Bills offense scored no less than 27 points in each of their first four games. They’ve been at that number or less in five of their last seven.
The main issue seems to be the ground game as when they’re one-dimensional, they’re far more challenged. The 49ers have the league’s 10th-best rush defense and are eighth-best in yards-per-carry. That should slow down this Bills offense, which can – at times – be explosive.
Josh Allen on the Pat McAfee show today discussing his growth as a QB pic.twitter.com/su1PZ0JFxY
— Buffalo Sports Chatter (@ChatterBuffalo) December 4, 2020
As for the 49ers, their goal here should be to run the ball plenty and keep Nick Mullens out of obvious passing situations. That plan should work as the Bills give up 4.7 yards-per-carry – the second-worst mark in the NFL. With that type of game flow, look for this game to stay under the number.
The Pick: Under 46.5 (-105)