Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers Early Predictions & Best Bets for NFC Wild Card Game

• The NFC North champion Chicago Bears went 1-1 vs Green Bay in the regular season
• The Bears opened as a 1.5-point home favorite
• We analyze the NFC Wild Card matchup and offer our best bets

Who’s ready for Round 3?

The NFC North champion Chicago Bears host Green Bay in a Wild-Card playoff game. Kickoff is 8 pm (ET), Saturday, Jan. 10 (Prime).

The hated rivals split their two regular-season games, each winning at home.

The narrative centers on Bears quarterback Caleb Williams making his playoff debut. Williams faces a formidable test against Jordan Love and a Packers defense anchored by pass-rushing terror Rashan Gary.

Here’s our early analysis of the Wild Card game and our best bets.

Packers vs Bears Wild Card Picks: Sharp Money Backing Road Underdogs

Chicago is a consensus 1.5-point home favorite. In playoff matchups where oddsmakers set the line this tight, the marginal edges become paramount. Our analysis reveals several key factors favoring the visiting Packers despite playing in hostile territory.

Pick: Green Bay Packers +1.5 (-120)

DraftKings Sportsbook provides this line on Monday morning, Jan. 5.

The betting market’s initial assessment had Chicago as home favorites, but early sharp action has driven the line, indicating professional money backing Green Bay. This line movement provides the first clue that the Packers represent value in this spot.

The Packers’ ground-and-pound approach, spearheaded by Jacobs’ projected rushing yards, should help control clock and field position in what figures to be a defensive struggle.

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Pick: Under 46 (-110)

Bet365 Sportsbook is offering this on Monday, Jan. 5. Multiple indicators point toward a lower-scoring affair than the betting public anticipates. The total has already moved, with sharp money consistently backing the under.

The teams combined for 49 points in Week 14 and and just 38 in an overtime game in Week 16.

The weather obviously will be a factor, but both teams also excel in red-zone defense.

Public Betting Breakdown: Sharp vs Square Money Split

The NFL betting public‘s enthusiasm for this historic rivalry has created fascinating splits between casual action and professional money, revealing potential value opportunities for sharp bettors willing to fade the crowd.

Money Distribution:

• Moneyline: Chicago Bears drawing 57.05% of handle despite underdog status
• Spread: Green Bay Packers -1.5 attracting 54.46% of the money
• Total: Under 46.5 commanding 58.13% of dollars wagered

This creates a classic sharp versus public scenario on the spread, where recreational bettors are backing the home dog Bears with smaller wagers, while larger professional money flows toward the road favorite Packers. The moneyline action heavily favoring Chicago suggests emotional betting on the home team’s playoff breakthrough narrative.

Our contrarian approach aligns with taking the Bears +1.5, positioning against the sharper money while capitalizing on the home field advantage that casual bettors correctly identify but may not be pricing efficiently. The public’s preference for the Under matches our analysis, as both fanbases expect a defensive battle befitting this rivalry’s playoff stakes.

Our recommended plays align with the flow of sharp money, backing both the Packers +1.5 at DraftKings and Under 46 where professional bettors have established positions.

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears Odds

Odds as of January 05, 2026 from DraftKings Sportsbook.

The remarkably tight odds reflect how evenly matched these NFC North rivals appear heading into Wild Card weekend. Chicago’s slight edge stems purely from home-field advantage, with the moneyline differential minimal. After removing the standard vig, the true probability breakdown shows Bears and Packers – essentially a coin flip that favors taking the point with Green Bay.

The moderate 46.5-point total suggests oddsmakers expect a methodical, defensive-oriented game rather than an aerial showcase, aligning with both teams’ regular season identities and January weather considerations at Soldier Field.

The defensive matchup favors Chicago’s secondary against Love’s aerial attack, while Green Bay’s ground game through Josh Jacobs (929 yards, 13 TDs) represents their clearest path to offensive success.