Chiefs vs Chargers Picks, Predictions & Odds

• The Kansas City Chiefs are 3-point favorites over the LA Chargers in Sao Paulo, Brazil on Friday night
• KC ranked 22nd in yards per play last season, their lowest mark in the Patrick Mahomes era
• See my Chiefs vs Chargers picks and predictions below, plus the latest odds

The NFL returns to Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Friday night for an AFC West showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers. Patrick Mahomes and company are riding a seven-game winning streak over the Bolts, and online sportsbooks expect that trend to continue, with the Week 1 NFL odds favoring KC by a field goal.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8pm ET / 5pm PT from the Corinthians Arena, with YouTube providing the broadcast coverage.

KC Chiefs vs LA Chargers Odds

Kansas City is currently favored by three-points against the spread is -168 chalk on the moneyline. LA comes back as a +140 underdog, while the total sits at 46.5 with -110 odds each way. Spoiler alert, I believe that is a shade too high and I’m not alone. According to the NFL public betting percentages, 88% of the over/under tickets and 86% of O/U handle is backing under 46.5. As for the spread, it’s been bet down half a point since opening lines were released, and 69% of the money is still on the Chargers to cover.

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Odds as of Sept. 4 at DraftKings. New customers can claim the DraftKings promo code and get a bonus to bet on Chiefs vs Chargers.

Chiefs vs Chargers Picks & Prediction

• Under 46.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

KC enters play as a top-four 2026 Super Bowl odds contender, but on paper they look like the same team that struggled offensively in 2024. The Chiefs finished 22nd in yards per play last season, and 15th in scoring. Mahomes meanwhile, averaged just 245.5 passing yards per game and 6.8 yards per attempt, both career-lows, and failed to reach 4,000 yards for the first time as a starter.

Kansas City Chiefs 2024 Offensive Stats

Their rushing attack remains one of the least explosive in football, and it’s hard to imagine we see anything other than a dink-and-dunk approach early on. Rashee Rice is suspended, while Travis Kelce and JuJu Smith-Schuster are no longer names that defenses fear.

The Chargers on the other hand, are once again dealing with injuries. They’ve lost star left tackle Rashwan Slater for the season, while several receivers are banged up. They did draft Omarion Hampton, the third-favorite in the Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, who looks promising, and perhaps on the ground is the best way to attack this KC defense. The Chiefs grade out as the second-best secondary per PFF, and Steve Spagnuolo’s unit has forced more interceptions and sacks from Justin Herbert than any other team.

As for the LA defense, all they did last season was lead the league in points allowed. They’ve lost a couple key pieces on that side to injury, but it’s still a Jim Harbaugh coached team that’s talented enough to hold this version of the KC offense in check.

Kansas City’s lack of explosiveness on offense, plus their reluctancy to throw the ball down the field should limit their scoring potential. Add in the strength of both of these defenses, plus the state of the Chargers o-line, and I’m making the under my Chiefs vs Chargers prediction.

The one concern I do have is the field in Brazil, which was like a skating rink the last time an NFL game was played there. The league has taken plenty of measures to ensure a proper surface for this matchup, including a complete reseeding process.

Trends-wise, KC contests have gone under in 22 of their last 34 regular season games. Chiefs second half unders have been especially profitable, hitting at a 71% clip since 2023, going under by an average of 4.2 points per game.

In Harbaugh’s first season with the Bolts, the under was 9-9, but 4-1 (80%) as an underdog, with both matchups against the Chiefs failing to clear the total.