Upcoming Match-ups

Chiefs Open as 2.5-Point Favorites Over Cowboys in Week 11 Matchup

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in NFL Football

Nov 15, 2021 · 5:50 AM PST

Kansas City Chiefs end zone celebration
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) and tight end Noah Gray (83) celebrate after running back Darrel Williams (31) scored a touchdown against the Las Vegas Raiders during the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Nov. 14, 2021, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/David Becker)
  • The Kansas City Chiefs (6-4) opened as 2.5-point favorites over the Dallas Cowboys (7-2) in Week 11 on Sunday (Nov. 21st, 4:25 pm ET) 
  • KC snapped out of its offensive funk by blasting Las Vegas 41-14 in Week 10, while Dallas clobbered Atlanta 43-3
  • Read below for analysis on which way the line will move ahead of kickoff

Both the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys looked like Super Bowl contenders in Week 10. After struggling badly on offense for multiple weeks, KC erupted on Sunday Night Football versus Las Vegas, posting its highest point total since Week 4.

The Cowboys meanwhile, delivered the most dominant performance of the Week 10 slate, crushing the Falcons in Atlanta.

Now the two division leaders will square off on Sunday, November 21st, in the most compelling game on the Week 11 calendar.

Cowboys vs Chiefs Opening Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Dallas Cowboys +116 +2.5 (-110) O 53.5 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs -136 -2.5 (-110) U 53.5 (-110)

Odds as of Nov. 15th at FanDuel.

The Chiefs opened up as 2.5-point favorites, in a game that features a total of 53.5. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 pm ET at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, a place where KC has posted a 3-2 record this season.

Chiefs Rout Raiders

The question posed around the NFL for weeks now has been what’s wrong with Kansas City’s offense? Entering their matchup with Las Vegas, the Chiefs had scored 20 or fewer points in three straight games, and were coming off their lowest output of the Patrick Mahomes era.

Mahomes threw for just 166 yards, while KC managed just 3.8 yards per play and 13 points in a victory over Green Bay in Week 9. That was the lowest amount of yards Mahomes has ever thrown for in a game he’s started and finished, but he more than made up for it on Sunday.

The 2018 MVP shredded the Raiders for 406 yards and 5 TD en route to a 41-14 victory. Tyreek Hill caught a pair of touchdowns, while Travis Kelce racked up 119 receiving yards. The Chiefs put up over 500 yards of offense, while converting 9-of-15 third downs, and all three fourth down opportunities.

KC’s defense was solid once again, holding Las Vegas to 14 points and just 299 yards. The Chiefs have now surrendered 17 points or less in three straight, after yielding 27 or more points in six of their first seven outings.

On the injury front, back-up corner Charvarius Ward left the game with an illness and did not return.

Dallas Dominates Atlanta

The Cowboys meanwhile, shook off last week’s shocking loss to Denver by dismantling the Falcons 43-3. Dak Prescott threw two touchdown passes, both to CeeDee Lamb, and rushed for another score, while Ezekiel Elliott also found the box twice.

The offense racked up 431 yards, but it was the defense that stole the show. Dallas held Atlanta to 4.0 yards per play and forced three turnovers. The Falcons put up season worsts in first downs, and third down conversions, while gaining just 214 total yards.

Trevon Diggs hauled in his league leading eighth interception, while the Cowboys also scored a touchdown on a blocked punt.

They entered the week as the league’s seventh highest graded defense per DVOA, a ranking that is sure to rise after Sunday’s performance.

Dallas didn’t suffer any serious injuries against the Falcons, and will hope to have left tackle Tyron Smith back for next week’s showdown with the Chiefs.

Line Movement

At this point it’s tough to predict which way the line will move leading up to kickoff. KC looked like a team that’s made back-to-back Super Bowl trips on Sunday, but will bettors get caught up in the recency bias, or will they remember this is a team that’s covered just three times all season.

On the other hand, the Cowboys burned their backers last week, but made them hole in Week 10 without causing them a sweat. Dallas is 8-1 against the spread this season, including 3-0 as an underdog.

If anything, the line might move a hair in the Cowboys’ favor but we should still expect the Chiefs to close as a small home favorite.

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