- The Kansas City Chiefs are 5-point road favorites to defeat the Buffalo Bills on Monday
- Monday betting record: 0-1 ; -1.00 units
- Both the Bills and Chiefs suffered their first losses of the season in Week 5
The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills didn’t just lose their first games of the season in Week 5. They were humbled.
Both Kansas City and Buffalo surrendered 40 points in their respective setbacks. But while the Chiefs were outscored 40-32 by the Las Vegas Raiders, the Bills were dumped 42-16 by the Tennessee Titans.
Consdering the Titans had practiced once since Sept. 27 due to a COVID-19 outbreak within the team, that’s served to create some public concern about whether the Bills are legit. That helps to explain why the 4-1 Bills are five-point underdogs at home as the face the 4-1 defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs.
The Chiefs travel to Buffalo to play the Bills on Monday night (Oct. 19th, 5pm ET) in a game that was moved back from its original Thursday date due to Tennessee’s ongoing issues with COVID-19. The Bills are playing on a short week after facing the Titans on Tuesday.
The forecast is for rain, 5 mph wind and a temperature of 51 degrees.
Chiefs vs Bills Odds – Week 6
|Kansas City Chiefs||-230||-5 (-110)||O 57 (-110)|
|Buffalo Bills||+200||+5 (-110)||U 57 (-110)|
Odds taken Oct. 18th at DraftKings.
Kansas City opened as three-point favorites. After finishing up watching the Titans dismantle the Bills, it didn’t take NFL bettors long to quickly push the Chiefs vs Bills odds to KC -3.5. And the line’s only continued to grow ever since.
At some point after this season, Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, his KC counterpart, are supposed to meet in some sort of distance-throwing competition. Consider this to be a preview of coming events, because both these teams like to air it out.
They both opt to pass on more than six out of every 10 plays. Buffalo rates 11th in the NFL with 62.58% of all Bills plays being passes. The Chiefs toss it up 60.12%. That’s 15th in the league.
Most TD passes on 3rd & 4th down:
1. Patrick Mahomes – 7
T-2. Josh Allen/ Justin Herbert – 6 pic.twitter.com/GA7bDWDZVn
— PFF (@PFF) October 15, 2020
Allen (317.8 passing yards per game) rates second in the NFL. Mahomes is sixth (294.8 ypg). In QBR, Mahomes (87.4) is second in the NFL and Allen (86.8) third.
The major difference comes in what each team does while defending the pass. The Chiefs are the NFL’s #6 pass defense (225.2 yards per game). Buffalo rates 24th overall (263.2 ypg).
Buffalo is riddled with ailments and that’s not good news when facing a QB who’s just won the Super Bowl a year after he was NFL MVP.
Five Bill starters are either questionable or out. The list includes linebacker Matt Milano (pectoral) and cornerback Tre’Davious White (back), who are questionable. White is Buffalo’s best cover man. Mahomes could have a field day if he isn’t able to go.
Dawson Knox will not play vs. the Kansas City Chiefs. Sean McDermott says it's wait and see with some of the other guys like Tre'Davious White, Matt Milano and John Brown. #Bills
— Matt Parrino (@MattParrino) October 17, 2020
The Bill did get some good news. Linebacker Tremaine Edmunds (shoulder) and wide receiver John Brown (knee) are expected to play after opening the week as questionable. Tight end Dawson Knox (calf) is out and guard Quinton Spain (foot) is questionable.
The Chiefs will be without receiver Sammy Watkins (hamstring) and guard Kelechi Osemele (knees). Tackle Mitchell Schwartz (back) is questionable.
Le’Veon Bell won’t make his KC debut. The midweek waiver claim must clear the NFL’s COVID-19 protocol before suiting up. Buffalo won the last meeting between these two teams but KC has won the last two games at Buffalo.
— Le'Veon Bell (@LeVeonBell) October 15, 2020
The Bills are 1-3 against the spread in their last four games against the Chiefs. Regardless, if you can get a division-leading team at home and five points, you take that spread.
Pick: Buffalo Bills +5 (-110).