Closing Odds & Expert Picks: Patriots vs Ravens on SNF (Week 16)

• The Patriots visit the Ravens in a massive Week 16 Sunday Night Football game
• New England is missing significant pieces from its front seven against a potent Baltimore run game
• See my top Patriots vs Ravens picks and predictions, plus the closing odds for SNF

A pivotal Week 16 AFC matchup unfolds on Sunday Night Football as the New England Patriots (11-3, 6-0 away, 8-5-1 ATS, 8-6 O/U) venture to M&T Bank Stadium to face the Baltimore Ravens (7-7, 3-5 home, 5-9 ATS, 8-6 O/U) on Sunday, December 21, at 8:20 pm ET.

Can the Patriots’ aerial attack generate enough firepower in a hostile environment, or will the Ravens impose their will through field position battles and clock control? Below, I have set out my data-driven Patriots vs Ravens picks, plus the closing Sunday Night Football odds.

Patriots vs Ravens Expert Picks, Predictions & Best Bets

ATS Pick: Ravens -3 (-120) at DraftKings

This AFC showdown presents a compelling statistical paradox that injury reports ultimately resolve. While New England’s offense demonstrates clear superiority across multiple efficiency metrics – posting 26.9 points per game versus Baltimore’s 23.8, accumulating 364.2 total yards compared to 324.6, and converting third downs at a robust 43.1% clip against the Ravens’ 37.3% – the personnel availability dramatically shifts the handicapping calculus.

The decisive factor lies within the trenches, where New England’s defensive integrity faces severe compromise. Leading tackler Robert Spillane’s and edge defender Christian Barmore were both absent from practice and the former has been ruled out. If Barmore is also absent, New England will be severely underpowered in the front seven against Baltimore’s run-centric attack. The Ravens have accumulated 2,047 rushing yards this season, leveraging the complementary skill sets of Jackson’s mobility and Henry’s between-the-tackles prowess.

Baltimore’s situational advantage becomes overwhelming when examining the matchup dynamics. This creates a clear path for the Ravens to establish early-down success, control time-of-possession, and dictate game flow.

The three-point spread is conservative given the personnel considerations. Baltimore’s home-field advantage at M&T Bank Stadium, combined with their ability to exploit New England’s defensive weakness through their greatest offensive strength, provides substantial value at the current number.

Game-Total Pick: Over 48.5 (-114) at BetRivers

Secondary injuries on both sides create favorable conditions for offensive production. New England’s Carlton Davis III and Marcus Jones are listed as limited in practice, while Baltimore’s Chidobe Awuzie remains limited. These compromised defensive backfields, combined with both teams’ combined scoring average of 50.7 points per game, suggest the 48.5 total undervalues the scoring potential.

The Patriots’ recent 31-point output in a 66-point contest is indicative of how this game is likely to play out. Baltimore’s offensive efficiency should improve against a depleted New England front seven.

Best Player Prop to Bet: Derrick Henry Over 79.5 Rushing Yards (-114) at FanDuel

This wager directly targets New England’s most glaring weakness while missing important pieces from their front seven. Baltimore’s game script will likely emphasize early-down run plays, providing Henry with volume and favorable matchups throughout the contest.

The line is significantly higher at other books, reaching a peak of 83.5 at Sports Interaction.

New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens Closing Odds

The current Patriots/Ravens spread lists Baltimore at a market-best -3.0 (-120) at both bet365 and DraftKings. The Patriots are +3.5 (-114) at Caesars Sportsbook.

Counterintuitively, the best Baltimore moneyline is -170 at Caesars Sportsbook, while the best New England moneyline is +155 at bet365.

The total ranges from 48.0 (ov -114) at BetRivers to 48.5 (un -105) at DraftKings.

Removing the sportsbook’s vig, the Ravens have a 61.6% implied win probability, compared to 38.4% for the Patriots.

NE vs BAL Public-Betting Patterns: Sharp Money Opportunities Emerge

The betting market reveals significant contrarian value, with recreational money heavily favoring the road underdog despite underlying fundamentals supporting the home favorite.

• Spread Handle: 71.6% backing Patriots +3
• Moneyline Action: 81.6% supporting Patriots upset bid
• Total Distribution: 52.5% slightly favoring Over 48.5

This public sentiment creates a classic fade-the-public scenario. The overwhelming recreational support for New England, despite their critical defensive injuries, suggests sharp money recognizes Baltimore’s situational advantages. Our Ravens selection positions against the popular money while aligning with the fundamental analysis.

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