Colts vs Bills Betting Odds, Lines, Predictions, and Picks for Week 11 Matchup
By Robert Duff in NFL Football
Published:
- The Buffalo Bills are 7-point favorites over the Indianapolis Colts in an NFL game slated for Sunday, November 21st
- The 6-3 Bills are 5-1 straight up this season against teams that don’t have winning records
- Indy (5-5) is 0-4 SU when facing teams with winning records
That it’s been 18 years since the Indianapolis Colts beat the Bills in Buffalo perhaps shouldn’t be surprising. Historically, dome teams traveling outdoors to cold-weather cities generally don’t fare well.
Indy, though, loses in Buffalo at just about any time of year. During their current four-game losing skid there, the Colts have lost in September, December and January (twice).
However, Indianapolis has won its last two visits to Buffalo in November. That includes the most recent victory by the Colts there, a 17-14 verdict on November 23, 2003.
Is it an omen? Oddsmakers don’t believe so. The Bills are set as solid 7-point favorites. Buffalo is 2-1-1 against the spread as the home chalk this season.
Colts vs Bills Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | +260 | +7 (-108) | O 49.5 (-110) |
| Buffalo Bills | -320 | -7 (-112) | U 49.5 (-110) |
Odds as of November 20th at FanDuel.
Kickoff for Sunday’s game is set for 1pm ET at Highmark Stadium. Conditions could be sloppy with rain, 13 mph wind and a temperature of 39 degrees in the forecast.
Colts vs Bills Line Movement
There’s been very little shifting from the opening betting line on this game. Back then, Buffalo was a 6.5-point pick.
Building up for the Bills. pic.twitter.com/sER4II9bFQ
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) November 18, 2021
When it comes to spread betting, 63% of the handle and 40% of the wagers are backing the Bills. In terms of the moneyline, it’s almost an even split in handle, with 51% on Buffalo and 49% supporting Indy. The betting leans 66-34 toward the Bills.
The total opened at 49.5 points, climbed to 50.5 and recently slipped back down to 49.5. Wagering splits show 70% of handle and 61% of bets are going with the over.
Indy’s Taylor Runs Up Against Bills’ Brick Wall
Undoubtedly the key battle in Sunday’s game will be Colts running back Jonathan Taylor facing Buffalo’s run defense. It’s ranked #3 in the NFL.
With the weather forecast, the Colts won’t want the game in the hands of QB Carson Wentz. Buffalo’s defense has allowed a league-low six touchdown passes.
Jonathan Taylor with the second effort!
That's seven straight games with a rushing TD for @JayT23. #ForTheShoe
📺: #JAXvsIND on CBS
📱: NFL app pic.twitter.com/ZYHE1iyqj5— NFL (@NFL) November 14, 2021
Taylor has gained 973 yards to share the NFL rushing lead. He’s gone over 100 yards on the ground in four of the past five games. Buffalo’s defense is surrendering just 83.88 yards rushing per game this season.
Colts vs Bills Injury Report
Both teams could be missing their star linebackers and heart of their defenses. Colts ball hawk linebacker Darius Leonard (ankle/hand) is questionable. If he can’t go, E.J. Speed and Zaire Franklin will need to fill a huge void.
Q to Darius Leonard: "How's the ankle?"
Leonard: "It's attached."
— Joel A. Erickson (@JoelAErickson) November 18, 2021
For the Bills, it’s LB Tremaine Edmunds (hamstring) who is questionable. Edmunds missed last week’s win over the New York Jets. Buffalo right offensive tackle Spencer Brown and right defensive tackle Star Lotuleilei are both on the NFL COVID-19 reserve list and out.
Colts vs Bills Betting Trends
The Bills have captured each of their last 13 victories by margins of 10+ points. That’s the longest such streak in the NFL since the 1998-99 Rams.
Buffalo is 5-1 straight up this season against teams that don’t have winning records. Facing the 6-3 Bills, the 5-5 Colts are 0-4 SU when facing teams with winning records. But unlke the Bills, the Colts did beat the Jags this season.
Top turnover differentials in the NFL:
1. Bills +14
2. Colts +11Most points off takeaways in the NFL:
1. Colts 77
2. Bills 74One of many intriguing storylines on the way Sunday. 🔜 We’ll see you tonight from Buffalo @WISH_TV pic.twitter.com/RfAAaMazsW
— Charlie Clifford (@char_cliff) November 20, 2021
These are two of the NFL’s most opportunistic defenses. The Bills lead the league with 14 takeaways. Indy (+7) ranks second in this category. Indianapolis has scored 77 points off turnovers, while the Bills have accumulated 74 points from takeaways.
Taylor has run for at least one TD in seven consecutive games. Indy is 5-0 when Taylor rushes for 100 yards. The Colts are 0-5 when Taylor is held under 100 yards on the ground.
Colts vs Bills Prediction
The Bills are 3-1 straight up overall in the last four games against Indianapoils and 4-0 SU in the last four games between the two teams played in Buffalo.
At home, Buffalo is 3-1 SU this season. The Bills are an NFL-best 12-2 SU at home since the start of the 2020 season.
Get 'em while they're hot! 😏#GoBills | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/LqN178LJyT
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) November 16, 2021
Indy is 4-1 SU in the last five games. The Colts are 6-4 ATS this season. Only five NFL teams show a better ATS record. The Bills are 6-4-1 ATS the last 11 times they were favored by at least a TD.
Best Bet: Buffalo Bills -7 (-112)
Sports Writer
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
