Colts vs Falcons Picks, Predictions & Player Props to Bet in Berlin

• The Indianapolis Colts and Atlanta Falcons meet in Germany on Sunday morning
• The Colts/Falcons odds have moved toward heavily-favored Indianapolis
• See the Colts vs Falcons player props, picks, and betting predictions

The NFL’s international showcase presents a compelling slate of player prop opportunities as the Indianapolis Colts () and Atlanta Falcons () clash in Berlin. This non-conference battle features explosive offensive talent on both sides, creating multiple angles for savvy bettors to exploit. This international showdown kicks off from Olympic Stadium in Berlin on Sunday, November 9, at 9:30 am ET.

This Berlin matchup brims with prop-betting value, from the quarterback duel to elite running backs and premium pass-catchers. I have analyzed consensus lines to pinpoint the most compelling player prop opportunities across all skill positions.

Jump to: Passing/Rushing/Receiving Props || Touchdown Props || Expert Picks

Colts vs Falcons Player Props

The quarterback battle showcases two passers with identical completion expectations but divergent yardage projections. Daniel Jones carries a higher passing yardage prop at 243.5, though the under on his 32.5 pass attempts sits at -133, suggesting market expectation of an efficient, explosive approach. The over on his 1.5 passing touchdowns has seen slight movement from -120 to -117, indicating modest betting interest.

Michael Penix Jr’s line sits at 231.5 passing yards, with bettors anticipating higher volume as his over on 34.5 pass attempts commands -124 odds. Despite his three-touchdown explosion last week, the under on his 1.5 passing touchdowns remains heavily juiced at -169, though over odds have tightened from +133 to +127

Jonathan Taylor headlines the skill position market with a lofty 92.5 rushing yard total. The market expects heavy usage, pricing the over on his 18.5 rushing attempts at -130. His combined Rushing + Receiving Yards line reaches a massive 114.5.

Bijan Robinson showcases his versatility with a 66.5 rushing line and 43.5 receiving yards. His total Rushing + Receiving Yards prop matches Taylor’s at 114.5, highlighting his dual-threat value to Atlanta’s offensive scheme.

Among pass-catchers, Drake London commands the highest yardage prop at 70.5. The market believes in his chemistry with Penix, as the over on his 5.5 receptions sits at -147. For Indianapolis, targets appear distributed between Michael Pittman (56.5 yards) and Alec Pierce (55.5 yards), creating uncertainty about the primary beneficiary in Germany.

IND Colts vs ATL Falcons Touchdown Scorer Props

Jonathan Taylor dominates the touchdown market as the overwhelming favorite to reach pay dirt. His Anytime TD odds of -319 have actually lengthened from an opening -350, providing marginal value. Taylor also leads First TD Scorer odds at +278.

Bijan Robinson represents Atlanta’s most likely scorer at -133, with his odds drifting from an opening -150. Following his three-score performance, Drake London’s Anytime TD odds have shortened from +150 to +140, reflecting increased confidence in his red zone role.

For value seekers, Colts tight end Tyler Warren presents intrigue at +153 to score, while Michael Pittman sits at +168. The quarterback props offer longshot appeal, with Penix Jr (+817) providing significantly higher payout than Daniel Jones (+278).

Colts vs Falcons Player-Prop Picks & Best Bets

With two explosive offenses taking the field in Berlin, several player props present significant value opportunities. Based on seasonal performance data, team tendencies, and market inefficiencies, I have identified prime betting targets where prop lines fail to match established production patterns.

Bijan Robinson Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-117) at BetRivers

The most glaring statistical mismatch on the board belongs to Robinson’s receiving prop. While his rushing line reasonably approximates his output, the receiving number creates a substantial arbitrage opportunity.

Statistical Analysis:

• Robinson averages 57.88 receiving yards per game, creating a 14.38-yard cushion above his 43.5 prop line
• His reception prop of 4.5 sits at -142 on the over, correlating perfectly with yardage expectations
• Atlanta enters as +6.5 underdogs, historically increasing check-down volume and screen-game usage

Game-Script Factors:

• Penix Jr’s pass attempts prop (34.5) heavily favors the over at -124
• The Falcons’ 52.2% red zone conversion rate suggests more stalled drives, increasing intermediate passing
• Robinson’s dual-threat capability makes him the primary safety valve in negative game scripts

Matchup Advantages:

• Indianapolis ranks 28th in defending running back receptions, allowing 5.2 catches per game to the position
• The Colts’ potential defensive line injuries (Buckner, Stewart, Ebukam, Lewis all questionable) could force quicker throws

The Pick: Bijan Robinson Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Kyle Pitts Over 4.5 Receptions (-135) at Sleeper

Market movement tells a compelling story when odds shift this dramatically. Pitts over 4.5 opened at -123 and has shifted as short as -152 at some books due to sharp money identifying value. But bettors can still find the over at -135 at Sleeper, which is close to the opening line.

Professional-Betting Indicators:

• One-way traffic suggests the opening line contained a significant error
• The 29-point movement represents substantial professional confidence
• Heavy volume on the over typically indicates inside information or superior analysis

Situational Analysis:

• Penix Jr has targeted Pitts heavily in their limited sample size together
• The 6’6″ tight end presents matchup problems for Indianapolis linebackers
• His red-zone size advantage makes him a priority target near the goal line

The Pick: Kyle Pitts Over 4.5 Receptions (-152)

Atlanta Falcons vs Indianapolis Colts Odds

The market has moved decisively toward Indianapolis since opening. The Colts opened at -276 on the moneyline and have been bet up to -310, indicating heavy action on the road favorites. More significantly, the spread has moved a full point from Colts -5.5 to -6.5, suggesting strong belief in a touchdown-plus victory margin.

The game total remains stable at 48.5 points.