Indianapolis Colts vs Los Angeles Rams Predictions, Picks, Player Props & Closing Odds (Week 4)

• The undefeated Indianapolis Colts) travel to face a Los Angeles Rams (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) squad looking to bounce back from a late-game collapse
• Los Angeles is a 3.5-point home favorite, with the game total set at a lofty 50 points
• Below, find the closing Colts vs Rams odds, player props to target, and IND vs LAR picks and predictions

The Indianapolis Colts (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS, 2-1 O/U) and Los Angeles Rams (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U) meet at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA, on Sunday, September 28 (1:05 pm PT/4:05 pm ET on FOX).

Can Daniel Jones continue his MVP-level start to the season against the toughest defense he’s faced all season?

Below, I will set out the closing Colts vs Rams odds, the main player props, and my top Colts vs Rams picks.

Go to: IND vs LAR ODDS | IND vs LAR PLAYER PROPS | IND vs LAR PICKS

IND Colts vs LA Rams Closing Odds

The Rams are 3.5-point home favorites across the board, and -186 or shorter on the moneyline. The Colts are as long as +160 to improve to 4-0. The game total ranges from 49.5 to 50.5.

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IND vs LAR Odds Movement

This spread hasn’t moved much since the opening NFL Week 4 odds came out. The Rams opened as 3.5-point chalk, were bet up to 4.5 during the week before buy-back on the Colts moved it back to 3.5.

The game total, however, has moved a boatload after opening at 47.5. The line is now as high as 50.5, a full field-goal increase. This move is a direct response to the offensive firepower on both sides. The Colts rank second in the league in scoring (34.3 PPG), while the Rams are a respectable 11th (24.3 PPG).

Colts vs Rams – Key Matchups to Watch

Quarterback vs Pass Defense

Matthew Stafford is averaging 246.3 passing yards per game with a 98.5 passer rating, but he’ll face an opportunistic Colts defense that has already snagged four interceptions and allows just 178.3 passing yards per game. On the other side, Daniel Jones has been a revelation, posting a 111.7 rating without a single turnover. However, he has yet to face a pass rush like the Rams’, which has already accumulated 12 sacks and holds opposing quarterbacks to the sixth-fewest passing yards in the league (165.3 per game).

Running Game vs Run Defense

This is the premier matchup of the game. Jonathan Taylor leads the NFL’s third-ranked rushing attack, averaging a staggering 153.3 yards per game. He is the engine of the Colts’ offense. The Los Angeles Rams have made stopping the run a priority and have been successful, ranking 13th by allowing just 103 yards per game. If the Rams can contain Taylor and force the Colts into obvious passing situations, it will completely change the complexion of the game.

Offensive Line vs Pass Rush

The Indianapolis Colts’ offensive line has been elite, allowing a league-low two sacks through three games. They will face their toughest test yet against a ferocious Rams defensive front that has racked up 12 sacks. If the Rams’ pass rush can disrupt Daniel Jones’s timing and pocket presence, it could be the key to a Los Angeles victory.

IND Colts vs LA Rams Player Props

NFL player props as of September 28 at BetMGM.

Jonathan Taylor’s rushing prop of 91.5 yards is a fascinating line. While he’s averaging over 150 yards per game, the Rams have a top-tier run defense that should sell out to stop him. This makes the under an intriguing play.

Puka Nacua’s receiving line is high at 92.5, but he has been a target monster and will be leaned on against a banged-up Colts secondary.

Stafford’s yardage prop is set about eight yards above his season average. Jones’s prop is nearly 50 yards below his average, a clear nod to the elite Rams pass defense he’s about to face, and the fact that he’s playing far better than he ever has in his career. The value appears to be on the under for Jones, as he has yet to be tested by a front seven this formidable.

Indianapolis Colts vs Los Angeles Rams Picks & Prediction

• Los Angeles Rams -3.0 (-122) at BetRivers
• Over 48.5 (-110) at bet365
• Jonathan Taylor under 91.5 rushing yards (-118) at BetMGM

The Colts have been the surprise of the season so far, thanks to the Daniel Jones-led offense drastically exceeding expectations. However, they face a significant step up in competition against a Los Angeles Rams team that is desperate for a win at home and possesses a defense built to challenge the Indianapolis strengths.

The key to this game lies in the trenches. The Rams’ defensive front, with 12 sacks on the season, has a massive advantage over a Colts’ offensive line that, while excellent, has not faced this caliber of pass rush. Expect the Rams to disrupt Daniel Jones’s rhythm and force him into less-than-ideal passing situations, something he has largely avoided this year.

While Jonathan Taylor is a phenomenal talent, the Rams’ run defense is solid, and they will undoubtedly stack the box to slow him down. This puts the game on Jones’s shoulders against an elite secondary.

On the other side, Matthew Stafford and the Rams’ offense should find success against a Colts defense missing two starting DBs (Jaylon Jones and Kenny Moore II). The Rams have been dominant as favorites, covering the spread in five of their last six games. They’re also 5-1 ATS in their last six games when favored by 6.5 or fewer.

After a humbling loss, expect a focused Rams team to control the line of scrimmage and secure a victory and cover at home.