Commanders vs Dolphins Picks, Player Props to Bet & Latest Odds (Berlin)

• The Washington Commanders meet the Miami Dolphins in Madrid, Spain, on Nov. 15th
• The Dolphins are favored for just the third time this season
• See my favorite Commanders vs Dolphins picks and player props to bet, plus the latest odds

Two teams mired in dismal seasons meet across the pond on Sunday morning when the Washington Commanders (3-7, ATS, O/U) face the Miami Dolphins (3-7, ATS, O/U) at Santiago Bernabeu Stadium in Madrid, Spain, at 9:30 am ET on November 15th.

Both teams have identically ugly 3-7 records on the season, but the Dolphins are coming off their best game of the season – a __ win over Buffalo – while the Commanders are mired in a five-game losing streak. Making matters worse for Washington, star QB Jayden Daniels has been ruled out, along with WR1 Terry McLaurin.

With the Commanders in dire injury straits, the Dolphins head into Sunday as slight favorites.

WSH Commanders vs MIA Dolphins Odds

As of late Saturday night, the Fins are 2.5-point chalk against the spread and -146 (or shorter) on the moneyline. The Commanders are +125 (or shorter) to pull off the upset in foreign territory.

The game total ranges from 47.0 to 47.5.

The spread has moved a full point in Miami’s direction since opening at MIA -1.5. The total has hardly budged after opening at 47.5 last Sunday.

Odds commentary as of 9:38 pm ET, November 14th. The lines in the table will update automatically with the best-available price for each market if the NFL odds move before kickoff.

Commanders vs Dolphins Player Props

Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop sits at 233.5, 30 yards higher than his counterpart, Washington backup Marcus Mariota.. The market heavily favors multiple touchdown passes from Tua, with his over 1.5 TDs juiced to -160. His completions line has seen slight movement from -125 to -117 on the over.

Mariota’s props tell a different story, with the market skeptical about his touchdown production. The under on his 1.5 passing TDs carries -156 juice, while his modest 200.5 yardage total reflects expectations of a more conservative game plan. The emphasis shifts toward his mobility, which creates separate betting opportunities in rushing markets.

Achane’s rushing total of 80.5 yards represents approximately 72.76% of Miami’s entire team rushing average (107.2 YPG), highlighting his central role in the offensive game plan. His line has tightened from -116 to -118 on the over, indicating steady backing despite the elevated total.

The most dramatic market movement involves Ertz’s reception prop. Opening with the over heavily favored at -159, sharp money has completely flipped the line, making the over a +113 underdog. This massive reversal from +119 to -147 on the under suggests professional bettors expect reduced target share for the veteran tight end.

Commanders vs Dolphins Expert Picks

WSH vs MI ATS Pick: Dolphins -2.5 (-108)

Washington is 3-7 on the year despite an elite 80.0% red-zone touchdown rate. That number was unsustainable at the best of times; without their primary offensive weapons, they’ll be hard-pressed to even reach the red zone, let alone convert in condensed fields.

The Dolphins’ pass rush has generated 20 sacks this season and should create consistent pressure against a quarterback making his first non-home start of the campaign.

Tua Tagovailoa threw two more picks last week, bringing him to a concerning 13 on the season, but he also threw two TD passes on a 71.4% completion rate. This week, he gets to face on the single-worst pass-coverage unit in the NFL, according to PFF.

WSH vs MIA Over/Under Pick: Under 47.5 (-110) at DraftKings

The injury situation directly impacts scoring potential, making the under the logical play. Washington’s offense averages 21.7 points per game with Daniels primarily orchestrating the attack this season. That production becomes difficult to replicate with Mariota and a depleted receiving corps.

Miami’s modest 20.8 points per game average suggests they won’t need to push pace to secure victory.

Best Player Prop to Bet: Pick: Zach Ertz Under 4.5 Receptions (-137) at Underdog

The seismic shift in Ertz’s reception market tells the most compelling story of this entire prop slate. When a line moves from over -159 to under -159, it signals that respected money has identified a significant edge. This isn’t recreational betting causing volatility – it’s sharp action creating a new market consensus.

It’s easy to see the logic: Mariota is a gifted runner, and much less talented passer. If Washington is going to move the ball, it’s going to involve a lot of ground-and-pound, so to speak.

Shorter odds are not, of course, a reason to bet any side of any wager. The actual probability still needs to exceed the implied probability. And lucky for us, there’s one book that’s been slow to adjust. Bettors can still find Ertz under 4.5 receptions at -137 at Underdog. His -159 odds elsewhere carry a 61.39% implied probability, whereas the -137 price you can get at Underdog carry just a 57.81% IP. That’s a big difference in a game of inches.