Cowboys vs Bears Week 14 Thursday Night Football Props: Back Aboard the Elliott Train
- Week 14 kicks off with the Cowboys versus the Bears on Thursday Night Football (8:20 PM ET, Dec. 5)
- Our TNF props were 2-3 last week for -1.32 units (-1.95 units for the season)
- This is a get right spot for the Ezekiel Elliott and the Dallas run game
A few bad beats burned us on Thanksgiving Day, but we’re looking to bounce back on Thursday Night Football (8:20 PM ET, Dec. 5) by backing a of couple long time Cowboys.
Dallas is a field goal favorite on the road versus Chicago, which sets up nicely for Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys rushing attack.
Prop #1: Ezekiel Elliott Over/Under 85.5 Rushing Yards
| Rushing Yards | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 85.5 | -113 |
| Under 85.5 | -113 |
All odds taken Dec. 4.
Zeke failed us last week but it wasn’t entirely his fault. He rushed for 56 yards in the first quarter, but received just four carries the rest of the game after Dallas fell behind by multiple scores. This week, he faces a Bears defense that has been bleeding production to running backs with Akiem Hicks and Danny Trevathan out.
The Cowboys are a different team when Ezekiel Elliott is involved more since he entered the league:
16 or more carries: 31-13 record
15 or fewer carries: 3-5 record
Elliott had 12 carries today for 71 yards. pic.twitter.com/WRqqUhxp7T
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) November 29, 2019
Chicago has surrendered 100 or more rushing yards in six of its past eight outings, and allowed 83 yards to Bo Scarbrough last week. Elliott has at least 20 carries in five of his past seven games and the Cowboys feature Pro Football Focus’ sixth ranked run blocking unit. It’s hard to envision Zeke not smashing in this spot.
Pick: Elliott Over 85.5 rushing yards (-113)
Risk: 1 unit to win 0.88 units
Prop #2: Dak Prescott Over/Under 277.5 Passing Yards
| Passing Yards | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 277.5 | -113 |
| Under 277.5 | -113 |
The Bears defense has allowed only two quarterbacks to exceed 273 yards through the air this season, and none since Week 3. They’ve held five of 12 opposing QB’s below 200 yards passing and boast a top ten coverage unit according to PFF.
.@BoJack39 seals the deal!#CHIvsDET | #Bears100 pic.twitter.com/DfTFFmJ9a0
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) November 28, 2019
Prescott, meanwhile, has racked up video game numbers this season, but the majority of the production has come at home. He’s put up 422 fewer yards on the road compared to Jerry World, despite an even distribution of games.
His average yards per attempt is 1.4 yards less on road and his passer rating is 6.3 points lower. Prescott can certainly win in this matchup, but there’s a much higher likelihood that Dallas rides its workhorse running back.
Pick: Prescott Under 277.5 passing yards (-113)
Risk: 2 units to win 1.76 units
Prop #3: Anthony Miller Over/Under 49.5 Receiving Yards
| Receiving Yards | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 49.5 | -120 |
| Under 49.5 | -120 |
After a quiet first nine games of the season, Anthony Miller has emerged as Chicago’s number two pass catcher behind Allen Robinson. Miller has target counts of 13, 9 and 11 since Week 10, and has played 86% of the Bears offensive snaps in two of the last three weeks.
.@AnthonyMiller_3 eatin’! #CHIvsDET | #Bears100 pic.twitter.com/TZmDyJxZeo
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) November 28, 2019
He absolutely torched the Lions on Thanksgiving Day for 9 catches and 140 yards, and now faces a Cowboys squad that’s allowed 203 receiving yards to opposing slot receivers over the past two games. Taylor Gabriel is still recovering from a concussion which locks Miller into guaranteed playing time and increases his chances of success.
Pick: Miller Over 49.5 receiving yards (-120)
Risk: 1 unit to win 0.83 units
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
