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53% of Bets Are on Cowboys as 3-Point Favorites vs Vikings – Picks and Betting Preview

Cowboys rushing attack
The NFC East leading Dallas Cowboys square off with the Minnesota Vikings in Week 10 . Photo by KA Sports (Flickr) [CC License].
  • The Minnesota Vikings and Dallas Cowboys square off on Sunday Night Football (8:20 PM ET, Nov. 10)
  • The Cowboys are 3-point home favorites, but 57% of the ATS money is on the Vikings
  • 51% of all sharp ATS money is on Minnesota – read below for our betting prediction

The Minnesota Vikings (6-3) visit the Dallas Cowboys (5-3) on Sunday Night Football (8:20 PM ET, Nov. 10) in a clash of NFC playoff contenders. The Vikings currently occupy the final NFC Wild Card spot, while the Cowboys are a game ahead of the Eagles for the NFC East lead.

Minnesota is coming off a disheartening road loss to Matt Moore and the Chiefs, while Dallas is fresh off a blowout victory over Danny Dimes and the Giants on Monday Night Football.

Vikings vs Cowboys Spread and Money Breakdown

Team Spread ATS Money%
Minnesota Vikings +3.0 (+100) 57.0%
Dallas Cowboys -3.0 (-120) 43.0%

Odds taken Nov. 9, 2019

The Cowboys opened as 3-point home favorites and that line has stayed put all week, thanks to some pretty even action on both sides. Sportsbooks report that 53% of all bets are on Dallas, but 57% of the betting handle is on Minnesota. As far as the sharps are concerned, their action is split almost directly down the middle. The Vikings are receiving 51% of their bests, compared to 49% for the Cowboys.

Schoolyard Bullies

Both of these teams have made a living off beating up on bad opponents this season. Minnesota’s six wins have come against teams with a combined record of 16-28-1, while Dallas’ five wins have been versus teams with a combined 11-33 record.

The Vikings in particular have feasted on lousy competition, piling up yards versus bad teams, while struggling to score against strong teams. They average 416 yards and 30 points per game versus bottom-10 defenses, but just 338 yards and 21 points versus top-22 ranked defenses. They’ve lost both road games this season versus playoff- caliber opposition, and quarterback Kirk Cousins has a long history of struggling in primetime.

Melting Under the Lights

Cousins has just five career wins in 18 primetime starts and will enter this game without his favorite receiver.

To make matters worse, Cousins is facing pressure at the fourth highest rate in the league and now has to deal with a ferocious Cowboys pass rush. Dallas racked up five sacks and 12 QB hits versus the Giants in Week 9, and have recorded 20 sacks in their last six games. The defensive line versus offensive line mismatch will likely encourage Minnesota to run the ball more, but the Cowboys have been just as dominant against enemy ground games.

Dallas is one of just 12 teams that allows less than 100 rushing yards per game (97.3) and held Saquon Barkley to 28 yards on 14 attempts last week. It could be a long night for the Vikings offense.

Home Sweet Home

On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys should be able to pile up yards, especially through the air. Dak Prescott is a different player at home, averaging over 79 more passing yards and 0.75 more touchdowns per game at Jerry’s World than on the road. The matchup versus Minnesota’s secondary is extremely appetizing, as the Vikings have surrendered the most receptions to wide receivers this season.

Their top two corners, Xavier Rhodes and Trey Waynes, have Pro Football Focus grades of 51.1 and 48.8 respectively, and should struggle to keep up with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. Advantage Cowboys.

How ‘Bout Them Cowboys

Dallas is 6-1-1 in their last eight home games versus the spread, while Minnesota is 2-6 ATS in their last eight as road underdogs.

The Cowboys have advantages all over the field against the Vikings, and should be able to defend home turf and improve to 6-3. Play Dallas -3.

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