Cowboys vs Lions Picks, Predictions & Closing Odds

• The Lions are 3-point favorites over the Cowboys on Thursday Night Football
• Dallas is 5-1 ATS as underdogs this season
• See below for my Cowboys vs Lions picks and predictions, plus the closing odds for TNF

We’ve got a good old fashion elimination game tonight on Thursday Night Football between the Cowboys (6-5-1, 2-4 away) and the Lions (7-5, 4-2 home). These two teams are heading in opposite directions in the NFC playoff picture, but despite Detroit’s recent struggles, they’ve still been pegged as favorites in the latest TNF odds.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 pm ET / 5:15 pm PT from Ford Field, in Detroit, MI, and on Amazon Prime. Here are my Cowboys vs Lions picks and predictions, as well as the closing odds.

Cowboys vs Lions Picks and Predictions

• Cowboys +4 (-122 at BetRivers)

I vehemently disagree with this spread. Detroit has been favored by 3 to 3.5 points all week, and you can even get a +4 on Dallas if you shop around. To me, this line feels too high given the current state of both rosters, and the matchups the Cowboys can exploit on offense.

Dallas Cowboys Offense Stats

Dallas enters play leading the league in total offense and passing yards, while ranking second in points per game. They’re also top-five in EPA/play and Total EPA, as well as top-eight in success rate. Dak Prescott is playing like a legit NFL MVP odds contender, while his receiving duo of George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb is arguably the best 1-2 punch in football.

The Cowboys are in a smash spot tonight versus a Lions defense that is in shambles. Detroit has allowed 58 points and roughly 600 passing yards in the last two weeks alone, failing to cover in back-to-back games as favorites. Jordan Love and the Packers receivers scored 4 TD last week on Thanksgiving against them, and now only Dallas has surrendered more touchdowns to enemy receivers than the Lions.

To make matters worse, the Detroit secondary is severely banged up. They just put former 1st round corner Terrion Arnold on IR, while multiple DB’s are in danger of missing tonight.

There’s also major injury concerns for the Lions offense. Star receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown left last week’s loss to Green Bay with an ankle injury and is a true game-time decision tonight. Even if he plays, he won’t be 100 percent, which will surely limit his effectivness.

Detroit is also listing three starting linemen as questionable, including All-Pro Penei Sewell. That spells trouble against a Dallas defense that is improving, especially against the run. Since they acquired Quinnen Williams to shore up their interior, opposing teams aren’t even trying to run on them.

The Cowboys have also ramped up their pass rush win rate in recent weeks, recording eight sacks in their last three games, and vaulting to number one in the NFL in pressure rate.

Ultimately, the Dallas defense isn’t probably strong enough to make them a true Super Bowl odds contender, but it’s certainly good enough to contain a statuesque Jared Goff and the shorthanded Lions. The Cowboys offense meanwhile, is going to continue to feast, making them an easy bet against the spread.

Looking for more Cowboys vs Lions plays? Check out the following:

• Cowboys vs Lions same-game parlay
• Cowboys vs Lions player props
• Cowboys vs Lions expert predictions and picks

DAL vs DET Closing Odds for TNF

As always, make sure you check out the best football betting apps if you’re wagering on the total or any other market. The best book to bet Dallas at currently is BetRivers, where you can get a +4 line at -122 odds. If you don’t have access to Underdogs, I’d happily take +3.5 as well, with BetMGM offering the most favorable price at -105.

Total-wise, the over/under varies from 54.5 to 55.5 points depending on where you look. Overs are 8-4 in Cowboys games this season, but that number is a little too high for me to wager on.

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Per the NFL public betting trends, Dallas has thrived against the spread and as underdogs this season. The Cowboys are 3-0 ATS in their last three games, with two outright wins as ‘dogs. They’re 5-1 ATS when catching points this season, with their lone ATS defeat coming in Chicago when Lamb when down early with an injury.

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